[egbeachley]

Originally Posted by JunkyJoe

Here's my best GUESS as to the total dollar amount of this fraud ...

In regards to PSA specifically, they have graded about 30 million cards so far (give or take a couple million). I'm guessing that about 25% of all PSA grading submissions are made by "favored" and/or high-volume dealers. Said dealers surely must be very much aware of how PSA's alleged "professional system" works, right?

So far, the math is: 30,000,000 X 0.25 = 7,500,000 cards.

So, just assuming that 1 out of every 5 cards submitted by those clowns is either A) altered but received a number grade ... or ... B) over-graded by means of favoritism and/or over-valuation by the submitter ...

So then: 7,500,000 X 0.20 = 1.5 million tainted PSA-slabbed cards

From what we've seen, so far, with all the outed cards from the past few months, I'll just guess each tainted card has an average "fake value gain" of around $200. I arrive at this average considering all the outed cards with value gains in the hundreds, thousands, and tens of thousands of dollars, as well as the ones that gained only $50 or less.

Also, I would think the average would remain a constant regardless of what % of tainted cards have been outed so far, i.e. "this card here gained $30 in 'fake value' ... that card there gained $400 in 'fake value' ... and that one over there gained $5,000 in 'fake value' ... " .. ... and so on.

So that brings us to the next little bit of math:

1,500,000 X $200 = $300,000,000 in PSA-related fraud ... "alleged" of course

Also, consider that my "$200-average-fake-value-gained-per-card" guess might be conservative. What if that actual average fake value gain per card is closer to $300 ... $400 ... ?? Furthermore, my "25%-of-PSA-grading-submissions" guess may be conservative. What if 30% ... 35% ... __% of PSA graded cards were submitted by those favored/high-volume dealers???

Then, if we add in the suspected fraud involving SGC slabbed cards, and to a lesser extent (IMO) the ones involving BGS/BVG ... there could be what, 1/3 added to the $ fraud total?

So how about $400,000,000, as a conservative estimate?

But wait, what about all the raw cards that have been inflated by shill bidding involving various shady individuals? How much does that add to the total, potentially?

So maybe that "billion dollar" number isn't so ridiculous after all, hmm?

The Billion Dollar fraud should be calculated on the final sales price, not the value gained by the fraudsters. The true value of the Altered cards is around 20% of the fraudulent sales price. Give or take. So do the same calculation of final sales price times 80%.