Originally Posted by ls7plus
I know its hard to have patience, but please remember that early on in such a young, hot player's career, the large part of the demand for all of his key cards is inflated by that which is speculative and/or transient in character (the latter means that this type of demand typically moves on to the next, latest and greatest "hot" card rather quickly). The time to buy these guys, when their card prices bear some semblance to reality, is when they have established a likely HOF-level career, and are in their mid to late thirties downslide. By then, all speculative demand is gone, and that which was transient in character will have long since moved on. Value/price is directly proportionate to demand over supply, and true value in Harper's case, unless you JUST GOTTA HAVE HIM NOW, will not be established for quite a few years. Believe me, I know that GOTTA HAVE HIM NOW FEELING--I moved on to vintage many years ago due largely to the above factors, but indulged myself once concerning that obsessive factor in 2010, paying $229.00 for a one of 25 red refractor Brennan Boesch card when he was hitting .320+ with ten homers by early June that year. I highly doubt I could get $2.29 for that card now, unless I sold it to one of his family members, and keep it solely as symbolic of a lesson well and permanently learned.
Another example are the gold refractor rookies of Joe Mauer, which at one time were going for close to $2,000. Could you even get a tenth of that now, when he is a rather poor-hitting first baseman, instead of a HOF-to be catcher???
If you must have a Harper rookie now, buy one of the cheaper ones, and then upgrade (much) later to a tougher one, after his real value is well-established.
Best of luck in your collecting,
Larry
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