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FYSThe market is far from efficient at the moment. There are conflicting views regarding how much product has yet to be uncovered and how much product is sitting in private collections that refuse to use 3rd party grading. You will also get varying views on how many people actually collect particular sets and to what degree (low grade/taking their time etc.). In order for a market to be efficient, all known information on a particulary must be public. That is far from the case. Population reports, eBay completed and the number of posters on this and other forums does not equal efficient information. More efficient, yes, but not efficeint. There are also many long time collectors that have knowledge and information about various collections that few other people are aware. Again, this contradicts an efficient market.
In any case, who cares, collect what you enjoy and pay for what you can afford.