Hi Jeff, From my experience SMR is fine for most cards. I collect HOF rookies (at least what the registry calls a rookie) and it's always pretty close.
For example, I won my PSA 5 Steve Van Buren at auction for around 110 within the past year. 214 on that card is way high and I'll tell you why. And honestly I'm not trying to be a jerk as you are one of my best collecting colleagues. VCP includes the blue sock variation which sells much higher. They distinguish the yellow jersey, but not the blue sock. I tried to tell them, but we weren't speaking the same language and I gave up.
You can double check, but I think VCP average includes BINs and collectors can overpay in a BIN situation - I've done it. And again, needs verification, I believe the average excludes results from over 2? years ago approximately, so even though they correctly exclude "old" results, "old" is subjective and I've noticed times this makes the average less than my gut tells me the next one will sell for. I get your point though - VCP is great - includes a lot of results, not just eBay and is based on ACTUAL data. I can use it how I like - usually I just pick relevant auctions, mix with my subjective opinion, and come up with a valuation. All that said, I don't usually find it's much different than SMR or my SMR + $15 for HOFers rule of thumb. On a 500 dollar card, sure I should do my homework, but on a $50 dollar card.... Eh, SMR and an eBay search is usually ok.
If dealers are quoting you SMR, maybe you should listen - you may get a deal!!! Check out SMR on high numbered 35 Chicles....
With regard to this card - still seems high to me, but if I needed it for my set, I'm sure I'd pay market rate. I'd hate to reveal what I paid for my Bull Tosi who while I'm sure was a good guy, and has a card that is very nice aesthetically, had a short undistinguished playing career. In that case though, at least I understand the price driver.
Finally, I think you see what I'm getting at. Janowicz 51 card is at least somewhat price comparable (assuming the same condition) to the first mainstream issue cards from similar years of some of the games' all-time great players - Van Buren, Trippi, Waterfield, Motley, Perry, etc. Interesting stuff. The one thing I can think of is we didn't have a lot (any) mainstream sets between 35 and 48. So a 48 Van Buren is somewhat late - not exactly an LSU Van Buren, say one existed. With Perry and Motley, their cards are somewhat late because we needed the AAFC to merge in with the NFL before we got mainstream cards of those guys. And Janowicz is a true college card like the 48 Leaf Doak Walker. I still feel like I'm grasping at straws though. I guess it's full circle back to the Heisman as an explanation - maybe this:
http://www.psacard.com/psasetregistr...t.aspx?s=16039