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Posted By: T206Collector

General statements about how market price is driven by supply and demand (okay, I follow you up to this point) followed by broad, unsubstantiated and flawed assumptions about the supply and demand of baseball cards in various conditions and across 3/4 of a Century today does not persuasively argue that the market for vintage cards is "efficient" or nearly establish that relying on population reports to determine relative scarcity is anything other than inane.

As I have previoulsy opined elsewhere in this forum, people who argue that population reports establish relative scarcity are more likely than not defending expensive purchases that they have made. It is just that simple. Nothing more than the biased opinions of collectors who want to believe they own the only truly mint T206 Unglaub card, and then want the rest of the world to believe they made a good investment by spending more than a $1,000 on it. The only way that makes sense is if you buy the skewed view of the world set forth in the various pronouncements above (and in other posts on this forum).

With any economic model -- whether you are calculating the gross domestic product of China, or the market value of a T206 Grimshaw in PSA 7 condition -- there are always going to be assumptions drawn. It is beyond refute that the assumptions being drawn by those deluding themselves (and others) into thinking that population reports actually reflect true scarcity in the market are deeply flawed. It reminds me of an old "joke" that I was told in one of my economics classes in college:

A philosopher, a chemist and an economist are stranged on a desert island without anything to eat. Just before they are about to starve, a crate with hundreds of cans of food washes ashore. The three gentlemen set to work devising a plan to open the cans.

The philosopher recommends that they all sit down and really think about whether or not there really is food in the cans.

The chemist disagrees, explaining that it would be much better to leave the cans in saltwater long enough so that the cans will corrode and open on their own.

The economist just shakes his head at both of these suggestions, and replies, "Fellas, it's easy. Just assume a can opener."