Quote:
Originally Posted by jason.1969
Even as a math nerd, I'm not sold on defensive metrics. For modern players, I'd rather look at Gold Glove voting.
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Well, that's fallible, too. Derek Jeter won a Gold Glove in 2005 with a -1.9 dWAR. His defense, over the course of the season, essentially lost two games for the Yankees.
Here's the problem I have with trying to gauge defensive performance. Unlike offense, where you can just look in the box score from 1927, and see what Babe Ruth our Lou Gehrig might have done at the plate, there's no way to accurately gauge how well they did in the field. Modern defensive metrics toss out terms like ultimate zone rating, range factor, range factor per 9 innings, total zone fielding runs, total zone fielding runs above average, etc. A lot of these are incorporated into each other, and unless you have a PhD in Sabermetrics, it's something you just look at, and move on. I'd like to delve more deeply into how these numbers are arrived at, but now's not the time.
How can you accurately gauge what Lou Gehrig's range factor was 88 years ago unless you have a DeLorean, and can go back in time to watch him play all of his games? While the formulas might be sound, the data that is going into the calculations has to be, at best, highly suspect. Using the Keith Hernandez example again, I don't get how his glove essentially won a half game over the course of his career, when he's widely considered the preeminent defensive first baseman of the modern era. Again, I watched him play, though admittedly, the majority of my exposure to his play was during his time with the Mets, as I was too young when he was in St. Louis. He still won five Gold Gloves in New York, so he was doing something right. But unless I'm completely stupid, and reading the information incorrectly, I see that in 1987 and 1988, seasons in which Hernandez won his final two Gold Gloves, he was worth a combined -0.8 dWAR. His best season ever, if going strictly by dWAR, was 1983, when he had a 0.8 dWAR. He won a Gold Glove in 1978 with a -0.6 dWAR, and most of his totals in subsequent Gold Glove winning seasons were something like 0.1, or 0.2 dWAR.
What?
Ozzie Smith had some dWAR seasons with figures in the +3 and +4 range. I know shortstop is a more difficult position to play, but Hernandez played the position in ways that were never done before. You can't tell me that Keith, who would charge home plate when he thought a bunt was on, didn't save a lot of runs by essentially taking that play out of the opposing manager's book. The guy is famous for diving all over the field, making spectacular catches. And the sum of all his defensive plays, during which he won 11 Gold Gloves, is about a half win for his teams.
Look at Roberto Clemente, arguably the greatest defensive right fielder in the history of the game. Are we really believe that in 1966, his dWAR was 1.3, in 1967 it was a -0.1, and in 1968, it was a 2.5?
Clemente's defense was worth 12 wins over 18 seasons? The guy won 12 Gold Gloves, tied with Willie Mays for the most ever by an outfielder, and he was worth only 12 wins defensively in nearly two decades.
I'm baffled. Kirby Pucket has a 3.3 dWAR his rookie year, and doesn't win a Gold Glove. Two years later, he has a -0.6 dWAR, and wins his first of 6 Gold Gloves.
Something is terribly wrong with this metric.