Posted By:
Ryan ChristoffThis is one of the only vintage card discussions on this board that I feel I can comment on with any kind of expertise, since my collecting interest is almost exclusively in Cuban cards.
That being the case, I'd like to ask MW and Warshawlaw if they collect Cuban cards? How long have they been searching for Cuban cards? How many 1923/24 Billiken cards have they ever held in their hands? While their comments about the flood of Cuban cards we'll be seeing when trade relations normalize would seem to make some sense, I would have to strongly disagree. Some ideas make sense in theory (like communism itself) but just don't work in real life. Here's why I disagree (please note that I am disagreeing with comments people made in posts, not attacking anyone's personal character):
1. Cuba is a poor country. People there need money. In the past few years it has become apparent that many Americans will pay large sums of money for little cards with pictures of baseball players on them. The island has nearly been picked clean except for a few substantial collectors who have large collections. This small group of long-time collectors is going to be the source of most of the future "finds" in Cuba whether or not Castro ever dies and whether or not the trade embargo is ever lifted.
2. The idea of an undiscovered warehouse or retail stock turning up a hoard of cards is technically possible (since we obviously can't deny that it would not break the laws of physics or other laws of nature) but is probably less likely than a warehouse full of E107 cards turning up. Is that reason not to buy E107s? Because a huge hoard might turn up and alter the market? To some it might be.
3. The idea of an "Attic Effect" in Cuba is almost laughable. In America, there have been numerous "finds" that have literally been found in attics. Do you really think that Cuba is filled with 3-story Victorian houses that have been in the same family since the 1820's? Where are all of these attics in Cuba? Living conditions are very different over there. The likelihood of an attic find yielding a hoard of rare Cuban cards (1920's and earlier) is no more likely than a batch of previously unknown 1880's American baseball cards being found over here. Again, both are technically possible. I would love to see it actually happen. Some of these issues are so scarce I would never have a chance to own them unless a new stash is discovered, so I'm all for it.
4. The novelty effect of foreign cards being "discovered" and in demand, then crashing when supply increases due to the high prices the cards initially bring has ALREADY HAPPENED with Cuban cards. About 2 years ago, eBay was flooded with great Cuban cards (mostly Aguilitas, some Nacionales) of Oscar Charleston, Pop Lloyd, Cristobal Torriente, etc. For about a 6 month period the market was flooded once the first batch sold for good money. Prices dropped dramatically as people began to assume that early Cuban cards weren't that difficult to come by. Since then, how many top-end Cuban card have you seen on eBay? Note that only ONE significant 1923/24 Billiken card (Charleston, Lloyd, Torriente, Mendez, Marcelle, Oms, etc.) has ever been sold on ebay (Torriente).
5. Probably the biggest factor when it comes to the scarcity of early Cuban cards is the climate. If there were ever a stash of old cards sitting in a damp, hot attic for 80 years they would now be a clump of mold. Most of the cards that did survive were pasted into albums and thereby somewhat protected from climate. My guess is that most of those albums have long since left Cuba.
6. In my estimation, there are now more vintage Cuban baseball cards (1920's and earlier) in Florida and Colorado than on the entire island of Cuba. That includes undiscovered collections and future "finds". Don't take that as fact as it is only my opinion, but that's what I believe to be true.
Sorry to ramble on for such an abusrdly long time. Feel free to e-mail me if you'd like to chat about Cuban baseball cards.
-Ryan Christoff
P.S. Please keep me in mind when this burst of Cuban cards comes streaming out of Cuba. I will buy everything you can find.