I had this happen several times over the years. If tracking says that it was delivered, eBay will usually favor on the Sellers side.
Of course, if tracking details says that it is in La La Land for several weeks and has not reached its destination, you will have to refund the Buyer. That is why you should always take out insurance.
I am going thru a similar claim as we speak. Buyer opened claim yesterday saying he never received item and he wants a refund. First of all, he just paid on Saturday. Card was mailed next business day which was Monday. He opened claim on Thursday (less than 3 days after card was sent). When I checked tracking details, it said that it was delivered to his front door on Weds.(2 days after I mailed it)
I responded to Buyer who of course did not respond and I also responded to the actual claim. You need to do this so that eBay can look into the individual case.
If they don't go in your favor, immediately call them and protest. Just as I will do.
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