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Originally Posted by trdcrdkid
Jay Jaffe's new book "The Cooperstown Casebook" makes the same point, which is similar to what Bill James said in his Hall of Fame book 25 years ago. I don't have Jaffe's book at hand right now, but in terms of Wins Above Replacement (WAR) as calculated on baseball-reference.com, Cuyler had a lifetime total of 46.7. That's the 223rd best lifetime WAR total among position players, tied with Roy White, just behind Tommy Leach and Gene Tenace, just ahead of Mike Cameron and Matt Williams.
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The problem with WAR is that it yields premiums attached to players who clearly do not deserve them. That is precisely how the Cubs got stuck paying Jason Heyward 184 million dollars over 8 years. Dollars to doughnuts Theo Epstein would love to unload the guy, but I highly doubt that he could even get a bag of used batting practice balls for him. When your methodology yields absurd results, the intelligent person knows to question the methodology. Bill James' runs created formula, originally generated as a means of accurately predicting the number of runs a team would score and proving to be extremely reliable, when utilized in the individual player context is much more reliable in terms of offensive stats. In addition, both OPS+ and wRC+ give more accurate results regarding true player value, although you then have to make mental adjustments for defense and baserunning.
With regard to defense, I found it most interesting that about a month ago, Ken Rosenthal, confronting the gent who is in charge of calculating "defensive runs saved" (a key component of the current WAR), got the latter to admit on MLB Now that a defensive run saved is not actually a defense run saved, because the context of the defensive play is totally ignored. An outstanding play made with two outs and the bases loaded to save a single and hence a run is counted precisely the same as the same play being made with two outs and only a runner on first. Clearly, the latter scenario involves merely a fraction of a defensive run saved, based on run probability. Much more promising is the newer Statcast "outs above average," which takes into account catch probability based on actual data, and thus does not over-inflate defensive value.
Personally, I do not believe the creation of single stat to measure overall player value in such a way that it may be compared to all other players is even possible. It is based on the premise that the "five-tool" player (one who can hit, hit with power, throw, run and field) is more valuable than one who lacks one of the five or more. This is a fallacy for two reasons: (1) all tools are not equally valuable--they never have been and never will be; and (2) the value of each of the tools varies with the player's position.
But, to each his own,
Larry