What do you think will happen?
I think like it has happened with every other fiasco that has occurred in the hobby, and there have been many, things will drop a bit in the short term and then return after people feel it's safe to go back into the water again.
Will prices of vintage signed cards plummet?
They may drop in the short term, but once the obvious bad ones, like this T206 run, are cleared, the prices will rise again slowly.
Will it all be forgotten in a few months?
Will take longer than a few months.
Obviously a few fakes will slip through the cracks?
The problem, and my main bone of contention with TPAs in my many rants on Net54 and other places, is that people placed them too high on a pedestal. The public took TPA OPINIONS, and made them definitive confirmations of truth. I saw an interview of a panel of autograph experts, from a number of years ago, where Kevin Keating, who was one of the panel, stated that he wished what PSA would give were called a "Letter of Opinion" rather than a "Letter of Authenticity" for this exact reason. This blind faith in TPAs has given rise to the lowering of our guard as to what we know vs what we want to believe. Due diligence was now something the TPAs were supposed to do for us. Unfortunately, it would be impossible for them to process the volume of autos they do and still take the time to do the legwork Manny did to open up this can of worms.
Now the TPAs did nothing to stop people from taking their opinions as fact. Why would they? The more people trust them, the more business they get.(which of course leads to higher volume which means less time spent per auto, This also means less time to do any sort of investigation like has been done with the T206s. This also means that less skilled and experienced people would need to be vetting the autos in order to meet the time guidelines for submission levels.)
The auction houses also share responsibility as they have now outsourced much of their due diligence to TPAs, for both autos and cards. Why wouldn't they? They get to have clean hands from any disputes as they are not responsible for saying the autos are real. By pushing more and more on the TPA, this furthers their reputation of reliability which increases their business volume, which makes all the problems I noted before that much worse.
No solution will satisfy everyone is the reality. TPAs have good and bad things about them. IMO, The best way to collect autos is to 1) due your own due diligence. Start by being a skeptic and demand the auto be proven real rather than the other way. 2) Develop a network of people whose opinion you trust to help you see things without emotion. 3) Understand what level of risk you are willing to accept. If your answer is none, then you should not collect anything at all. Save your money and go on vacations around the world. Anywhere demand and money meet, criminals will look to take advantage. It is true in any collectible. 4)If it's too good to be true it probably is.
How many of us will be motivated to get out of the hobby?
Very definitely some will. This is also why some of the prices will drop. Some will liquidate their collections and therefore increase supply. That coupled with less bidders should drop prices to a degree.
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