Quote:
Originally Posted by ls7plus
Then you definitely need to read and study more. It should also be noted that modern analytics are primarily qualitative, not quantitative, and it is beyond the bounds of reasonable dispute that, mathematically, they correlate extremely well with team performance. Since the team is the whole, and the players are the components that make up the whole, there is little reason to doubt that the analytics may be applied to individual players as well as the team with a very nearly equal degree of accuracy.
Please note that I am not speaking of "WAR" (wins above replacement) here, which I believe stands for worthless, analytical rat shit, because it employs estimates of defensive runs saved which it then integrates into a player's total "WAR" rating. MLB Now had the gentleman in charge of calculating defensive runs saved on as a guest, and broadcaster-reporter-writer Rosenthal got him to admit that a defensive run saved as credited to a player is not actually a defensive run saved, because the context in which the outstanding defensive play was made is ignored. Example: the shortstop makes a diving catch of a low liner headed up the middle, a ball that without the great catch would have been a hit, with two outs and a runner on third. Obviously, a run was saved defensively in that context. BUT THE POWERS THAT BE THAT CALCULATE SUCH THINGS ALSO CREDIT A DEFENSIVE RUN SAVED IN A SITUATION WHERE THERE WERE TWO OUTS AND NO ONE ON BASE. Obviously, in the latter context, at best, only a (small) fraction of a run was saved--the probability that if the catch had not been made, and the batter's ball had gone through for a hit, the batter, now on first base, would ultimately have scored that inning (a probability which, as I recall, is somewhere between 10 and 15% at best).
Teams are going much further with analytics than this, and are using both public and propriety data comprehensively. Virtually every team has an analytics staff now--why? Because it clearly helps them win more games.
I would ordinarily say "just my humble opinion," but an "opinion" it most certainly is not.
Best of luck to you in your collecting,
Larry
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It would be hard to read and study more math and baseball than I already have. Just a few points to make...
1. A pre-modern stat that correlates even more with team wins than any sabermetric invention is Wins. Yet nearly all fans would agree that ranking the greatest pitchers by wins is a flawed exercise.
2. Let's take two players who have identical stats. One is a clubhouse cancer. The other is a leader and motivator, often giving his teammates helpful tips on how to face certain pitchers or play certain hitters. While various formulas would lead to the same numbers of runs or wins, the reality is the players would lead to very different numbers of wins.
3. You mention most analytics are qualitative but also that they correlate with winning. By definition, correlation cannot be measured unless the variables are quantitative.
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