Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss
I do not intend to express my opinion about whether anyone is guilty, complicit, etc. with regard to all the recent revelations. Rather, I prefer to get feedback/predictions on how this will all shake out.
Anyone who has been on the board in the past 2 weeks knows all about the Gary Moser alteration scandal. With it has come comments and accusations directed against PWCC, PSA, SGC, VCP and even Leon/Net54 for advertising. Many altered cards have been outed, and yet others have been implicated as being "bad" despite no obvious signs of alteration (I have a card that fits that exact bill which is going back to PSA for review). Some people are ignoring this whole thing, others have gone "Chicken Little" and are claiming the sky is falling, and the range of opinions is wide and varied. I would like to know what you think will happen when its all said and done -- how will it all shake out?
Here is what I think: In sum, I think very little will happen/change.
The TPGs: They will got off almost scott-free. I think the TPGs will have to live up to guarantees, which could hurt financially in the short-term and affect stock prices, but I think they will survive and thrive, and I think by fall people will be buying high grade PSA flips for their registry sets, as if nothing ever happened. This is for two reasons: (1) We all assume everyone knows about this. They do not. Just like the far left or right politicos who spend all their time on like-minded websites and thus think everyone thinks the way they do, we on these boards represent a tiny population in a fish bowl and may not recognize that most people don't know or don't care about this whole thing. (2) I think there is too much money tied up in PSA and BGS cards for people to make a huge push for retribution/justice. Too big to fail.
I do think TPGs will learn from this mistake -- hire better graders, spend more time, dedicate experienced graders to more high-dollar cards, black-listing bad submitters and procedures for bouncing bulk submissions with a certain percentage of altered cards, etc. But not because they want to do the right thing, but because Wall Street demands it. And, eventually, they will get lax and bad stuff will happen again sometime down the line.
So I think there will be some financial fall out, which could lead to process improvements, which is a good thing. But I do not think any TPG will "go down". Perhaps one or two employees get fired as sacrificial lambs for press purposes, but PSA and BGS will be at the national, with lines out the door, at the 2020 National. The pity is that, IMO, SGC is SO superior to both.
PWCC: I think their brand will take a hit and one they may not be able to fully recover from, at least not for a while. To many, PWCC auctions will be forever suspicious, for both allegations of shilling and alterations, and they may lose bidders and thus consignors. But for the reasons above, they will survive and likely eventually again thrive. They too will take a financial hit and that will lead them to improve procedures, which will take hold for a while but eventually relapse. If the TPGs get a bruise, PWCC gets a few cuts needing stitches and a broken bone.
That said, I think the biggest risk here is that all this publicity has shone a bright light to certain practices -- such as the Vault for potential state tax avoidance and the alleged facilitating of fraud. For this, I think PWCC will forever be under the microscope of collectors and the authorities, and must be mindful of this as they move forward. If this slip is not the one that does them in, the next (if it happens) could signal curtains. In other words, i think PWCC will have to tread lightly and find some serious humility and integrity in the years to come. They best make sure their practices are right and tight going forward.
Gary Moser: I think he (and maybe a few other "doctors") gets convicted of crimes and serves a jail sentence, where he is violated daily, forever "altering" they way he goes to the bathroom. No, for real, this guy is toast and will serve time, and will forever be shunned from the industry. But, a leopard does not change its spots, and this leopard will be back in some form or another and will get caught again.
VCP/Net54 and other PWCC advertisers: Nothing happens. And nothing should happen.
The Rest: Some people will lose money and have to write off the cost of cards they have acquired. Other cards will be devalued as a result of guilt by association. Most people will NOT turn in cards they think or know are altered and will try to sell them and most of the bad cards (the majority of which have not been outed or discovered) will continue to circulate. Within months we will all go back to being purposely ignorant of bad actors and alterations and we will all fool ourselves into thinking all is well because the TPGs say so.
Some people will check the blowout lists and other places where altered cards have been posted. Others may demand records of provenance or be evermore mindful of viewing cards under loops. But those will be the minority. For most, it will be business as usual by September; and for some, it has always been business as usual.
That said, what people are doing here and Blowout is important and it is making a difference. It may not topple the whole regime, but it has opened many eyes and our "hobby" will be better for it. We, the collectors, must police the industry and stay vigilant. But we must also be mindful that this does not become the French revolution where heads roll just because they have eyes on them and a finger pointed. Thank you to everyone who has put in so much time and effort uncovering and publicizing this fiasco - keep up the great work and how can we help?
How do you think it will shake out?
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