[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

I think you are right. That said not all strategies carry the same risk. When I have had good runs in trading options it was actually lots of singles and doubles that produced the results not home runs. When I have gotten killed it was going for home runs. I am sure this applies to modern day baseball card traders. I call them traders because that is what they are. People like you and I work on collections. Entirely different mindset.

Yeah thus my thoughts on (e.g.) Jose Ramirez, less of an upside than some kid still not shaving whose autograph Bowman is already worth 5K, but less of a risk because he has proven he can play, and play well.

Sure, people do get very lucky, but it's only with hindsight that it looks like an obvious move. For example, as a Sox fan, I had a hunch Mookie was due to have a breakout year. And of course had I bought a ton of his cards at the beginning of the year I'd have made a big profit as his best cards have really climbed. But ex ante, was it a good risk? I easily could have felt the same way about Carlos Correa, who is mired in a massive slump.