All things being equal, I would go for the horizontal which tend to carry a premium. Also research the player. As unlikely as it would seem there are still a couple of players who may find a side door to Cooperstown. Dahlen is the most talked about, but Larry Doyle, Crathvan, Dineen, Magee, Murray, etc all have their promoters. Hit it right and it's a grand slam, hit it wrong and you've still got a better than average player or at worst know something about them. I did well with Vic Willis a few years back using this strategy.
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