Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth
I heard an interview the other day with Campbell Harvey (the pioneer of the inverted yield curve theory) and lost my focus about halfway through it. Apparently it's been a pretty consistent indicator though.
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Yes it has.
There are always different factors that influence markets and we have been in uncharted territory for years.
I am not sure what to think. Logic would say the business cycle still exists and a slow down of some kind would be natural. On the other hand anyone with a pulse can find a job. The system doesn't have the bad debt that existed in the mid 2000's so if there is a contraction it won't be anywhere near as deep.
Today the jobs numbers came out much stronger than anticipated. It was good news and bad news for markets because stock investors want the FED to lower rates.
I find it hard to see a serious downturn with this strong of job market but anything is possible. We have been battling a weak global economy for quite sometime and the US has been the leader and their weak performance could easily finally catch up with us.
It is really hard to know and most economists have so much position bias based on politics that they aren't much help.