I don't have a file of exemplars, so I don't know if the J is so different from all others as to be conclusive that it's bad. And even if so, things can happen during the course of signing an autograph to make it different. But for all the rest of it, and especially the salutation, if this is a forgery the guy really got it down as I look at it. Another point: if this is a forgery, why wouldn't he do the "J" in a more common way? I'd like to hear what our resident experts think, and that will be good enough for me.
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