Smoltz
He'll probably get in, but he's no lock. The comparison to Schilling and Kevin Brown is apt. He's nowhere near as good a pitcher as Blyleven, or Jack Morris either, for that matter.
He pitched almost exlclusively for EXTREMELY good teams, and was a number three starter, meaning he seldom matched up against the other teams' best or even next best pitcher--yet he still won more than 17 games exactly once.
Although a good strikeout pitcher, he finished in the top 5 in E.R.A. only twice, and twice in wins. While he deserves credit for three great years as a reliever, it was just that, three years--and in his best save year he had a worse ERA than six pitchers on his own team--slightly better than #4 starter Damian Moss and #5 reliever Kevin Grabowski.
Hey, he'll probably get in, and I don't dislike the guy, but he just did not have the dominating presence I would expect of a HOFer, and certainly not a first ballot lock.
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