I was bored today and created an index for graded baseball cards. Besides tracking the overall health of the market, I had a few questions in mind that I wanted answers to (when should I list cards, should I consign cards, are "Buy it Nows" more profitable than auctions, etc). This specific index is
post-war baseball. I think I will make a few of these, the ones I have in mind are:
- Post-War Baseball
- Pre-War Baseball
- Baseball Staples
Pre-War would be next, but I'll need to tackle a few different obstacles (PSA vs SGC, which cards have enough sales to make the data relevant, what cards will have reliable data, etc.). For this index, I initially selected 38 cards. They're all "star" cards in the $100-$400 range. It was important to select cards with 30-100 sales per year. I limited my search to Jan 1, 2014 through the present.
- 1952 Topps Yogi Berra PSA 4
- 1953 Bowman Pee Wee Reese PSA 5
- 1953 Topps Satchel Paige PSA 5
- 1953 Topps Roy Campanella PSA 6
- 1954 Bowman Mickey Mantle PSA 3
- 1954 Topps Willie Mays PSA 5
- 1955 Topps Ted Williams PSA 6
- 1956 Topps Yogi Berra PSA 7
- 1956 Topps Sandy Koufax PSA 6
- 1957 Topps Duke Snide PSA 7
- 1957 Topps Roberto Clemente PSA 6
- 1958 Topps Ted Williams PSA 6
- 1958 Topps Ernie Banks PSA 7
- 1959 Topps Roger Maris PSA 8
- 1959 Topps Frank Robinson PSA 8
- 1960 Topps Sandy Koufax PSA 7
- 1960 Topps Brooks Robinson PSA 8
- 1962 Topps "Managers Dream" PSA 7
- 1962 Topps Willie Mays PSA 6
- 1963 Fleer Roberto Clemente PSA 7
- 1963 Topps Hank Aaron PSA 7
- 1963 Topps Willie McCovey PSA 8
- 1964 Topps Pete Rose PSA 7
- 1964 Topps Bob Gibson PSA 8
- 1965 Topps Hank Aaron PSA 7
- 1966 Topps Sandy Koufax PSA 8
- 1967 Topps Roberto Clemente PSA 7
- 1968 Topps Mickey Mantle PSA 7
- 1968 Topps Tom Seaver PSA 8
- 1969 Topps Bob Gibson PSA 8
- 1969 Topps Johnny Bench PSA 7
- 1970 Topps Reggie Jackson PSA 8
- 1970 Topps Nolan Ryan PSA 7
- 1971 Topps Thurman Munson PSA 7
- 1972 Topps Nolan Ryan PSA 8
- 1973 Topps Willie Mays PSA 8
- 1975 Topps Robin Yount PSA 8
- 1976 Topps George Brett PSA 8
In total, I captured 5,831 sales for these 38 cards. Currently (December 2017) the "Post-War Index" is at $202.92, up only 1.24% from December 2016, but up 20.7% since January 2014. Below is the chart, honestly, it's not all that interesting.
Breaking it down by listing type revealed something we all knew, fixed listings realize higher prices than auctions - on average over 8% higher prices. I think it's interesting that there is virtually no difference between "Buy it Now" and "Best Offer."
Auction 185.44
BIN 201.14
Best Offer 201.03
Auction sales by day:
Mon 190.52
Tue 188.20
Wed 185.35
Thu 189.19
Fri 188.67
Sat 174.96
Sun 180.78
I think we all knew that Saturday was the worst day to end an auction, but who knew that Sunday was also bad!? Not me. According to this, you'll experience 5.38% higher sales on average ending an auction on Monday rather than Sunday (and 8.90% higher sales than on Saturday).
Sales by month was slightly more predictable:
Jan 179.70
Feb 185.62
Mar 192.59
Apr 180.85
May 196.05
Jun 188.29
Jul 188.57
Aug 191.77
Sep 182.83
Oct 184.82
Nov 173.79
Dec 179.16
Baseball season is the best time to list baseball cards (duh). The only thing I found interesting (but not all that surprising) is that there is no bump in December for Christmas.
Finally, the most controversial breakout is by seller. I grouped it by PWCC, Probstein, eBay Other (auctions) and Auction House:
pwcc_auctions 209.79
probstein123 182.58
eBay Other (auctions) 178.53
Auction House 220.44
PWCC realizes 17.51% higher prices than the average eBay auction. PWCC even averages higher prices than Buy it Nows! The Auction House figure likely is due to the ~20% buyers premium. Without the BP, Auction Houses are at $183.70.