[mid50sbaseball]

Originally Posted by Butch7999

We stand fully ready to be corrected, but whether or not the infield is pulled in, or shifted left or right, or whatever, has nothing to do with the issue.
The only salient point is that when crediting runs as earned or unearned, the official scorer recreates the inning without the error(s).
With the error removed, the runner on 3rd was either thrown out at 2nd attempting to steal, or he stole safely but advanced no farther than 2nd.
If he was thrown out at 2nd, the single occurs with two out and the bases empty, and the next batter strikes out, ending the inning scoreless.
If he stole 2nd safely, the scorer can't assume he would have advanced by more bases than the hit, so you'd have runners at 1st and 3rd with one out.
The next two batters both strike out, again ending the inning scoreless.
The run scores only by dint of the throwing error allowing him to have moved to 3rd, thus, it's unearned.

But maybe we're wrong. Where are the official scorers on board who can provide an official ruling?

there are too many "what if's" in your scenario so you'd have to be much more specific.

let's assume there was no throwing error but the runner successfully stole second base. So you now have a runner on second with two outs.

Who's the runner? Is it Prince Fielder? (slow, very unlikely to score on a ground ball single) or Jose Altuve? (pretty fast and most likely could)

The infield is drawn in, but where are the outfielders? Are they playing shallow? No, more than likely they're playing fairly deep to make sure no fly balls get over their heads. So a speedy runner on second could certainly get home on a ground ball up the middle.

Maybe it's a full count and the runner is off on the pitch making it even easier to score from second on a single.

Your statement that the scorer re-creates the inning without the error is quasi-accurate but I don't believe they'd go so far as to consider "would the infield be drawn in or not, and if not would this single have been a single" etc. there's way too many variables to be able to say those things with certainty so I don't think you could take them into consideration.

I believe what they look at is, if this error had not occurred would the runner who eventually scored have been out? I'm pretty sure that's the extent of it. If he would have been out (and it'd have to be virtually certain that he would be which is why there's the "you can't assume a double play" thing because there's lots of instances of a runner beating out a double play) then he obviously wouldn't be able to score a run, so if he does as result of an error then that's an unearned run.

In your scenario though, you cannot say with any real degree of certainty that he would have been out at second. And you also cannot say with any real degree of certainty that he can't score from second on a ground ball single through the infield (drawn in or otherwise). You said that the scorer can't assume he would advance by more bases than the hit. I'm not sure the scorer can assume he wouldn't either. 2nd base is considered "scoring position" after all...

As such, in my opinion the run is earned.