When I compared the careers of Jim Rice, and Dwight Evans, let's just say my eyebrow raised.
Both played in the outfield for the Red Sox, Evans in right, Rice in left. Both played together for almost the entirety of their careers. Evans came up in '72, Rice in '74. Evans played in Boston until 1991, when he was a free agent picked up by Baltimore. He played 19 years at Fenway, putting up 2,505 games as a member of the Red Sox. Rice retired after the 1989 season. That's sixteen years out there together. Every opening day of Jim Rice's career, Evans was there, too.
I get that Rice had some massive seasons early on in his career. So did Freddy Lynn, who was in center '74 to '80. But between '77 and '79, Rice was ridiculous with the bat; his average output for those three years: 114 runs, 207 hits, 31 doubles, 12 triples, 41 home runs, 128 RBI, a .320 AVG, and a slash line of .376/.596/.972. Those are real averages, not adjusted to 162 games. He only missed six games those three seasons. He led the league in total bases all three seasons. But that was really his peak. He had some othre really good seasons, and one other great season (1983; .305 AVG, 39 HR, 126 RBI, leading in the last two metrics. His 344 total bases led the league, too, and he slashed .361/.550/.911). In 1984, he hit only .280, but hit 28 home runs, and drove in 122. In 1986, he hit .324, driving in 110, but only hit 20 home runs.
But Rice was a below average defender, and by WAR, his career total of 47.4 just doesn't add up.
Now, Evans
didn't have the huge seasons early in his career. From 1972 to 1980, his 162 game averages were not at all impressive: .262 AVG, 20 home runs, 68 RBI, and a .792 OPS. But Evans is the rare player who truly came into his own after age 30. 1981 was his breakout offensive season; he led the American League with 22 home runs, hit .296, and 85 walks, 215 total bases and a .937 OPS all led the league. For the first time, he received MVP votes, finishing third in the league. From 1981 to 1989, his 162 game averages spiked considerably; he hit .281, averaging 109 runs scored, 30 home runs, 104 RBI, and 106 walks versus 114 strikeouts. And, unlike Rice, he was a highly regarded defender. Evans won a total of eight Gold Gloves in his career. And, his career WAR of 66.9 is 19.5 higher than Rice's career total.
So, why is Evans not in, and Rice is? I think, when it comes to baseball, voters rely heavily on reputation when handing out awards. Rice became one of the most feared hitters in the league early in his career. Evans was consistent, but not spectacular.
Evans played four years longer than Rice. But, because of Evans' walk rate, he had only 771 more at bats than Rice. So, there really isn't a great discrepancy in their home run frequency. Rice averaged a home run every 21.5 at bats (382 home runs in 8,225 at bats). Evans averaged a home run every 23.4 at bats (385 home runs in 8,996 at bats). And their career OPS + metric is nearly identical; 127 for Evans, 128 for Rice. And though Rice had a much higher career batting average (.298 vs .272 for Evans), he had a lower OBP. Rice walked 670 times in his career, and Evans walked 1,391 times. Rice's OBP of .352 pales in comparison to Evans' .370.
When we consider that these two players had equal power for their career, yet Evans got on base more, and was a vastly better fielder, it seems to me as if the Hall elected the wrong Red Sox outfielder. It took Rice fifteen years to get in. Evans, however, appeared on only three ballots. He fell off the ballot after getting only 3.6% of the vote in 1999.
Quote:
Originally Posted by KingFisk
Dwight Evans, anyone?
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