Posted By:
Hal LewisI don't think it is possible to know YET which way it will go... because I think it is "card specific."
Take this specific card for example, as it is clearly an important card:
To date, there are only 3 such cards graded HIGHER than this one. Those PSA 8's are selling for $125,000 with the juice in major auctions.
If 20 years from now there are STILL only 3 such cards graded higher than it...
then I completely agree that this card is UNDERVALUED and will be worth a great deal more at that time because of its rarity and its fame.
BUT...
if 5 years from now there are 13 such cards that are graded higher than this one, then I believe that the value will indeed fall down a good bit.
SO...
the big RISE in prices of vintage graded cards is important in the long run, because it is the ONLY thing that can perhaps drive all vintage cards OUT of long-time "collections" and into the "free market." People just can't afford NOT to sell them.
THEN... and ONLY then... when a majority of the cards are graded and accounted for... will we have a much better sense of how many high-grade cards exist and what they are truly "worth" to collectors.
REMEMBER...
while there are a LOT of cards still ungraded in private collections, there are also a lot of nice "looking" cards that will NOT grade too high. This is why they remain ungraded.
A lot of old-time collectors trimmed their cards, so they may LOOK pristine but will NOT grade well.
A lot of old-time collectors glued their cards to something, thereby messing up the backs.
A lot of old-time collectors didn't care too much about scratches on the surface or creases or corner condition.
AND...
since we are talking about OLD cards that are ONLY still around because they were saved by these very same collectors...
the odds of finding a high-grade rare vintage card that just "shows up" somewhere are slim to none.
BUT...
there WAS a huge find last year of MINT condition 1914 Cracker Jack cards that sold for $800,000 for the whole set...
so let's keep an eye out and see what that does to the value of all the OTHER graded 1914 CJ's that PREVIOUSLY had been considered some of the highest graded examples.
Does anyone know what the "find" of 1914 CJ's has done to the price of OTHER high-grade 1914 CJ's???