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Brian HI realize that the HOF isn't just for the Mantles, Mathewsons and Mayses. Much lesser players are already in (and their names don't even begin with "M") so the bar -- where the middle HOFers are at -- is set much lower.
Personally I think the 1st timers I would pick (at least in their first try) are simply Murray and Sandberg. Lee Smith probably should get in eventually, but I think the Save is difficult statistic and I'm not sure he was ever nearly as dominant as Gossage, Sutter, Quisenberrry or Mariano Rivera.
As for the hold-overs I like:
Gary Carter -- as good as or better than most of the Catchers in the Hall of Fame (he's overdue).
Andre Dawson -- For serveral years he was as complete a ball player as anyone in either league (5 tools etc.)
Within the context of his times his hitting numbers are much better than they look in the age of Sammy Sosa, Mark McGwire and Barry Bonds.
Kaat -- more gold gloves than anyone and a good record given who he pitched for.
Blyleven -- Similar to Kaat couldn't field as well but had a monster curve ball. Really I think both these guys are like 300 game winner Don Sutton on bad teams.
Trammell -- Possibly the premier Shortstop of his time.
Sutter and Gossage (see above) -- both were truly dominant and unhittable for several years even if they weren't used simply to rack up saves like current closers are. (By the way Quisennberry ought to be in too and he's not on the darn ballot??)
Dale Murphy -- I'm iffy on him but he did win 2 MVPs for the Braves before they took over the National League East (or whatever its called now). I have the same feelings about perenial All-Star Steve Garvey -- who has gone from overrated to forgotten. He may not have been as good as we were told in the 80's but he's wasn't as bad as we were told in the 90's either.