Hobby Resilience - Long Term

[Dead-Ball-Hitter]

Obviously collecting cards is foremost a hobby, yet, many of us have used the assets we've accumulated to pay for important things when the time required it: a wedding, college tuition, some needed home improvements, et al. Time and again, buying the right vintage and, in some cases, modern cards of key players, has proven a good investment.

Over the years, my cards have easily out performed safe haven purchases like gold, silver, even jewelry. Wall Street is up and down on the latest news in the Ukraine or China. Ty Cobb, well, he keeps steady. Michael Jordan... his collectables are resilient - some ups and downs but unquestionably up over the long haul. Price of gas goes up, fraud at a big accounting firm, new political leader... doesn't matter much. Now wild speculation on junk slabs... that's a whole different story, but vintage has never let me down!

Your experience similar?

[mrreality68]

Things I thought I overspent on in last few years now look like great buys

Things I Did not buy I now look back and wish I did.

The prices have spiked so much last few years that most collectors did well especially if they have any of the key players like Ruth, Mantle, Cobb, Jackson, Robinson, And some many more.

But for me I stay vintage and I keep collecting

[jsfriedm]

Two points:

1)Looking at the trajectory of vintage cards, it doesn't really look like a steady climb, more like a punctuated equilibrium. Cards are at some plateau, then there's a sudden shock to the market, and then there's a new plateau - like ships going through canal locks. If you buy and sell between shocks though, you don't actually make much money. What is the guarantee then that such shocks will continue, or that they can be predicted?

2)Long-term I still think we're basically looking at cards as having real value over the course of two or three generations. Boomers can retire and sell their cards off to Millenials, many of whom were hooked in the 1980s/1990s. Who will Millenials be able to sell their cards to when they retire?

[Touch'EmAll]

Americans love collectibles. Cards seem to be rather high on the collectibility scale. It seems as though there are a lot of new collectors recently. Heck I now get outbid on raw stuff at prices I think are way too high. I just can't imagine any significant dip in the card market - plateau perhaps, but not dip. I should quantify that by saying the good stuff won't dip much. Better chance than not, in 5-10 years todays prices will seem like good deals. I don't have the disposable income to pour into the cards I like at the the grades I like. I might buy a nice card on rare occasion, but for the most part I keep telling myself, "don't sell the good stuff". I retire in 10 years, will roll the dice, keep what I have and lets see how the market goes.

[G1911]

Pre-War big names are more resilient by this point, but I'm not sure about post-war. Most of the vintage 'investment' cards are post-war, and have massive print runs. When the generation with a nostalgic attachment to them dies and the hobby gets a massive influx of Mantle/Clemente/Aaron/Robinson/Mays/Ryan/Etc. I'm not sure there are enough interested young people to buy this massive quantity at huge prices.

Pre-War is greatly aided by the small surviving populations (there's a lot of T206, T206, Goudey, not much else), and the sets with a lot of examples are often the only commonly found card of that player. It helps Cobb's T206's that he doesn't have many other commonly found career contemporary cards, even though his T206's themselves are common. It's not the same with the post-war players. I doubt that, for example, Clemente's will completely crater but there are a LOT of 1955 Topps Clemente's being invested in, much less his many other extremely common cards. How many young people will think it's worth the many $K's 55 Clemente's cost when the generation who grew up with him all have their collections hitting the market? There will, sadly, be an inevitable massive influx of post-war materials coming as that generation reaches the end of life.

Another issue to factor if one's purpose is long term investment is, I think, shifting cultural standards and the tendency to remove from the public sphere of acceptability figures of the past that do not meet the standards of the present. On the other hand, this hasn't yet hurt CDV's (again though, a small population item that doesn't need very many buyers to sustain prices) of certain once-respected-and-now-reviled historical figures, so perhaps it won't, or could even stroke interest in there items (after all, villains in a narrative sell. Cicotte would be valued somewhere between Vic Willis and George Mullin if he wasn't a villain). I would factor it in as a possible big hit on certain guys if I was investing.

By this point, I think the great stat players who are undervalued will remain undervalued. I don't see Eddie Collins ever getting the dollar value of his statistical value. We've been talking about how he is undervalued for my entire life. Far more buyers care about narratives than who was actually the best, and I think the safest investments are those with the best narratives.

Personally, I'm going to continue to keep investing separate from cards. My stocks are not necessarily a better investment (indeed, if I'd bought T206 Cobb Green's instead of Apple, Google and Amazon, I'd be doing about exactly as well, but with the extra benefit of getting to look at baseball lithography instead of graph charts), but it lets me simply enjoy the cards as a break from the stress of life and finance.

[Hankphenom]

I used to think, as the consensus seems to here, that in a generation or two, the desire for boomer idols, and perhaps even for the original legends from past generations, will fade and that would be reflected in the market for them. But lately I've started wondering if perhaps sports (and maybe non-sports) cards are becoming commoditized, if that's a word, and will retain and even increase in demand and value simply because there is a limited supply, they are gradable, easily stored and transported, and in general make for a good medium of repository of value. In other words, no collectible desire required, or perhaps better put, now disconnected from the original collectible desire that gave them their secondary value in the first place. The difference in value between them, however, will still be determined in the marketplace by the same factors as they have been historically: stature of the player, rarity, age, beauty, condition, etc. What won't be required is any feeling for the subjects, much like gold and silver today. With exceptions, nobody holds those coins for the subjects depicted, but for the value of the medium. McLuhan said it: "The medium is the message."

[JollyElm]

I wrote my feelings on this subject right into my signature line:

"Overpaying yesterday is simply underpaying tomorrow."

[butchie_t]

I believe once Fanatics has taken full control, the collecting hobby will no longer be a hobby.

Rant on……

It is just gonna be a madhouse free-for-all on who can get the shiniest chase card at that particular moment in time. Base sets will rapidly fall off the face of the collectors radar and everyone will be overpaying for a box of cards that only has two packs of 2 cards, looking for that Willie Wonka golden ticket. And then summarily flipping it and bitching that they did not get what the expected out of their ‘investment’.

Rant off…..

That is actually happening now with these advertised case breaks. Over pay for a maybe shot at a 1 of 1 common.

What ever happened to the distributors that did not gouge their customers? Certainly is a thing of the past, that is for sure.

This is reminiscent of the gold rush and all the people that mined the miners. Who got the better end of that deal……not the miners and not the hobbyist in the modern day scenario.

Butch Turner

[RedlegsFan]

#1, people right now under 30 want to know what a mickey mantle is used for, and why Aaron Rogers is still playing at 61 years old.

Obviously we know these statements are out of wack. Mickey Mantle is a person, not an object, and Aaron Rogers is hardly 38 years old. This is the type of thing that leads me to believe vintage cardboard is going to steadily decline. Though finite, vintage cards are only of a fiat value measured in a fiat currency. And neither cards or currency can feed the children, or keep the wife warm in winters.

The last time i checked, Rocket Mortgage and WellsFargo are holding firm on refusal to accept Nolan Ryan or Jackie Robinson rookies as adequate or acceptable payment. My view may be tough to swallow, as i certainly know there are many on this board who buy-sell cards worth thousands apiece, several time a day. I’m just saying, eventually the hobby underwriters that keep our artificially inflated market afloat will likely remain mortal, and sports card portfolios will be left with nobody to give a flying hoot about Dimaggio. This means they’ll have to decide whether or not they want to be buried with Pete Rose and Gehrig cards, or cut and run. Full disclosure, i believe i will be buried with my cards.

Unless i can defend my family with it, transport my children to safety with it, use it to slay a marauder, eat it, or live underneath it, i don’t bank on it.

$28,000 for a glittery Pokemon card or a mere NBA prospect whose first release rookie card auctions at $16,782 before they even play one game is more than enough evidence to credit my prophecy, the value of my vintage cards will soon perish. Maybe not right away, but soon enough.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Exhibitman]

“A Card Collection is a magic carpet that takes you away from work-a-day cares to havens of relaxing quietude where you can relive the pleasures and adventures of a past day — brought to life in vivid picture and prose."--Jefferson Burdick

"Show me the money"--every newbie waddling through Target looking for unopened.

Look, every few years someone predicts that cards will end. Hasn't happened in the 50+ years I've been collecting.

[icollectDCsports]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

“A Card Collection is a magic carpet that takes you away from work-a-day cares to havens of relaxing quietude where you can relive the pleasures and adventures of a past day — brought to life in vivid picture and prose."--Jefferson Burdick

So beautifully put. That reflects my thoughts as well, but collecting cards -- and also other non-card memorabilia -- although focused on vintage items, helps me connect with not only the past, but also the game at present.

[brian1961]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

“A Card Collection is a magic carpet that takes you away from work-a-day cares to havens of relaxing quietude where you can relive the pleasures and adventures of a past day — brought to life in vivid picture and prose."--Jefferson Burdick


Look, every few years someone predicts that cards will end. Hasn't happened in the 50+ years I've been collecting.

Many thanks, Adam, for sharing that gem of a quote from Mr. Burdick.

Right on. Wasn't it just last year that rather young, very successful, entrepreneur spent a tad over $5,000,000 for a gorgeous 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle in PSA 9 MINT? When interviewed about it, he said he had wanted this card for many years. He got what he wanted, and he loved what he got.

--- Brian Powell

[BobC]

The "hobby" itself will be fine in the long term. As long as there are people still interested in and playing baseball, there will always be people who will collect and value the cards and memorabilia we've grown to love. From the gist of his opening post though, the OP's title/question for this thread should probably more appropriately have been something along the lines of - "Sports Cards and Memorabilia Investing Resilience - Long Term".

There are currently too many people, with way too much money, invested and tied up in our "hobby" to ever let it just suddenly wither away and die on the vine, so to speak. The only way I could ever see our "hobby" truly dying out is if something like collecting cards was somehow discovered to be a direct cause of some absolutely fatal disease or illness, or the government, for whatever idiotic reason, suddenly decided to ban and make sports card collecting illegal. Even so, it would likely still survive (and likely thrive) on the black (or at least grey) market. It ain't going anywhere anytime soon. If I remember correctly, people still eat blowfish, and it was never hard to find a drink during Prohibition.

For this "hobby" to die out now, it would be indicative of a lot bigger problems and issues throughout the world, the least of which would be worrying about our "hobby" itself.

[troutbum97]

Originally Posted by RedlegsFan

#1, people right now under 30 want to know what a mickey mantle is used for, and why Aaron Rogers is still playing at 61 years old.

Obviously we know these statements are out of wack. Mickey Mantle is a person, not an object, and Aaron Rogers is hardly 38 years old. This is the type of thing that leads me to believe vintage cardboard is going to steadily decline. Though finite, vintage cards are only of a fiat value measured in a fiat currency. And neither cards or currency can feed the children, or keep the wife warm in winters.

The last time i checked, Rocket Mortgage and WellsFargo are holding firm on refusal to accept Nolan Ryan or Jackie Robinson rookies as adequate or acceptable payment. My view may be tough to swallow, as i certainly know there are many on this board who buy-sell cards worth thousands apiece, several time a day. I’m just saying, eventually the hobby underwriters that keep our artificially inflated market afloat will likely remain mortal, and sports card portfolios will be left with nobody to give a flying hoot about Dimaggio. This means they’ll have to decide whether or not they want to be buried with Pete Rose and Gehrig cards, or cut and run. Full disclosure, i believe i will be buried with my cards.

Unless i can defend my family with it, transport my children to safety with it, use it to slay a marauder, eat it, or live underneath it, i don’t bank on it.

$28,000 for a glittery Pokemon card or a mere NBA prospect whose first release rookie card auctions at $16,782 before they even play one game is more than enough evidence to credit my prophecy, the value of my vintage cards will soon perish. Maybe not right away, but soon enough.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Poetic & interesting post, but a few glaring inaccuracies:

1. Can never treat modern & vintage the same or similarly in any market analysis.

2. The folks who are focused on feeding the children & keeping the wife warm are not the folks buying T206 Cobbs and 1933 Goudey Ruth’s.

[obcbobd]

Originally Posted by troutbum97

2. The folks who are focused on feeding the children & keeping the wife warm are not the folks buying T206 Cobbs and 1933 Goudey Ruth’s.

I would think so, but every now and then I will see someone selling a $5k card saying they need the money for an unplanned expense such as a major auto repair. Makes me wonder.

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by obcbobd

I would think so, but every now and then I will see someone selling a $5k card saying they need the money for an unplanned expense such as a major auto repair. Makes me wonder.

What does it make you wonder about?

[Foo3112]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

What does it make you wonder about?

I didn't write that but I'm guessing that people should have some sort of an emergency savings account rather than spending every single dollar on cards.

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by RedlegsFan

Though finite, vintage cards are only of a fiat value measured in a fiat currency. And neither cards or currency can feed the children, or keep the wife warm in winters. Unless i can defend my family with it, transport my children to safety with it, use it to slay a marauder, eat it, or live underneath it, i don’t bank on it. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Now you're getting apocalyptic on us. You could say the same about cash, gold, diamonds, etc. Under those circumstances, we'll be burning Wagners for warmth.

[joshleon]

Originally Posted by RedlegsFan

Unless i can defend my family with it, transport my children to safety with it, use it to slay a marauder, eat it, or live underneath it, i don’t bank on it.

I have always said that if those things become our #1 concerns, then surely the currency I used to purchase the worthless ephemera is ALSO worthless. The $ tied up in my Chase account is as worthless as the $ tied up in my Chase card.

I think the hobby is resilient so long as the US is. Any major political upheaval could always change that. I don't see our new overlords caring about pictures of a ball and stick game played during the adolescence of a former country's history.

I don't see any of that as likely and I will continue to "invest."

[parkplace33]

Cards are cards and stocks are stocks. Treat them as different things.

From the great Larry Williams:

“The most common bad habit I have seen in traders – good and bad ones – is the inability to react correctly to market action.”

[Mark17]

When I was a kid in the 1960s, I collected baseball cards, stamps, coins, bottle caps (with Twins players on the inside liner,) and a few other types of cards and other things. "Everybody" knew that only the coins and stamps were worthwhile long term. I would go to Woolworth's, where they had coin and stamps in large glass displays, hinged on the wall so you could page through them. I frequently would spend 35 to 40 cents for a plate block of 4 stamps from the 1950s mostly - so, 4 3 cent stamps plus the border showing the plate number.

My parents were pleased to see me tucking some of my money away into this long-term investment. Not that they had big expectations for future value, but it was seen as good, on principle, for me to be preserving my money rather than wasting it.

Fast forward 50 years. Last week I made another purchase of postage stamps, which I use for my mail order business. I get them from a guy who bought up very large stamp dealer inventories, and our standard deal, which we've done a half dozen times so far, is $2,000 face value in mint unused stamps, for $1,150 delivered. That's 57.5% of face value, and the seller always gives me a little extra, so more like 55%.

As usual, the stamps I get at that price are heavy in older, low denominations; the same ones I used to collect as a child. Now, I strip off the borders and plate numbers as waste, sort and audit them, and then use them on the packages I send, or offer them in smaller quantities (like 100 different for $10, or 300 diff. for $25) on ebay.

Bottom line, these stamps, as an investment, have done the following: In 50 years, a plate block of 4 stamps has gone from 35 cents down to about 7 cents. Invest $1,000, wait half a century, and have $200. Add inflation into the calculation (the fact each of those $1,000 original dollars was worth way more than the current $200 that remain) and it's less than $100 in real return.

My conclusion is that the baseball card blue chips will probably hold their value always, but with commons there is no guarantee.

[Snapolit1]

Interesting about stamps. When I was a kid I loved collecting stamps. Me and my friend used to go to a JC Pennys which had a stamp counter. I loved it. Also went to the Long Island Stamp Dealers (LISDA) show once in a while. As a kid really exciting grown up stuff.
Me and my dad fell in love with the air mail zeppelin stamps. I always wanted him to buy a set of them, which at the time was the astronomical price of I think $900. Fast forward 45 years later. You can get a nice group of them on eBay for about ….. $900. Remarkable. Why haven’t stamps taken off. Americans have lost interest. I think stamps are amazing. I learned so much about America and even world history from collecting stamps. Damn good on identifying world flags even to this day. But as an investment … shit the bed.



[/B]

Originally Posted by Mark17

When I was a kid in the 1960s, I collected baseball cards, stamps, coins, bottle caps (with Twins players on the inside liner,) and a few other types of cards and other things. "Everybody" knew that only the coins and stamps were worthwhile long term. I would go to Woolworth's, where they had coin and stamps in large glass displays, hinged on the wall so you could page through them. I frequently would spend 35 to 40 cents for a plate block of 4 stamps from the 1950s mostly - so, 4 3 cent stamps plus the border showing the plate number.

My parents were pleased to see me tucking some of my money away into this long-term investment. Not that they had big expectations for future value, but it was seen as good, on principle, for me to be preserving my money rather than wasting it.

Fast forward 50 years. Last week I made another purchase of postage stamps, which I use for my mail order business. I get them from a guy who bought up very large stamp dealer inventories, and our standard deal, which we've done a half dozen times so far, is $2,000 face value in mint unused stamps, for $1,150 delivered. That's 57.5% of face value, and the seller always gives me a little extra, so more like 55%.

As usual, the stamps I get at that price are heavy in older, low denominations; the same ones I used to collect as a child. Now, I strip off the borders and plate numbers as waste, sort and audit them, and then use them on the packages I send, or offer them in smaller quantities (like 100 different for $10, or 300 diff. for $25) on ebay.

Bottom line, these stamps, as an investment, have done the following: In 50 years, a plate block of 4 stamps has gone from 35 cents down to about 7 cents. Invest $1,000, wait half a century, and have $200. Add inflation into the calculation (the fact each of those $1,000 original dollars was worth way more than the current $200 that remain) and it's less than $100 in real return.

My conclusion is that the baseball card blue chips will probably hold their value always, but with commons there is no guarantee.

[Dead-Ball-Hitter]

Originally Posted by Mark17

Bottom line, these stamps, as an investment, have done the following: In 50 years, a plate block of 4 stamps has gone from 35 cents down to about 7 cents. Invest $1,000, wait half a century, and have $200. Add inflation into the calculation (the fact each of those $1,000 original dollars was worth way more than the current $200 that remain) and it's less than $100 in real return.

My conclusion is that the baseball card blue chips will probably hold their value always, but with commons there is no guarantee.

Interesting perspective, thanks for sharing.

[MarcHandelman]

Sports are a rich part of American history. And sports cards allow collectors to feel like they hold a piece of history. Vintage cards should therefore hold the interest of future generations -- and their value. If this were not so, as some of posted here, then why is there still a significant market for, say, documents from colonial times? It's been a long time since anyone saw George Washington at work!