Future of the Hobby/ Responses needed

[campyfan39]

Hello everyone.
I am finishing up a book about collecting cards (50-80's topps) with my late father. I wanted to close the book by talking about the future of our great hobby. I am looking for opinions, quotes, stats, etc.
It seems as if every show I go to all of the dealers are old men. I know a lot of us use the net now but what do you think is the future for card collecting?

Thanks in advance!
Chris

[Rich Klein]

The hobby is evolving but as you mentioned many of the interpersonal relationships (show, stores) are disappearing and yes when you got a normal show or a store, many of the dealers will be older men who are used to that millieu.

However, look at a site such as Net 54, we skew older than most baseball card hobby web sites yet we are younger then what you describe and other sites (such as Blowout cards or freedom card board) are much younger. If you look at Twitter, Facebook, or other social media sites, the average skews younger and when I set up at the local Dallas area show in July, a young man was telling me about a network used by even younger collectors.

The pros, we will still have a hobby

The cons, many of the things we grew up with including base cards being important. have gone away -- I think there is still a great deal of power in seeing cards of more than just the top 100 but thiat is just me.

I write about this topic fairly frequently in my Sports Collectors Daily column so please feel free to read and quote what is needed with proper citation

Rich

[campyfan39]

Thank you Rich. I enjoy and look forward to your facebook posts!

[39special]

It seems cards in those years('50's-'80's) are still popular.It also seems some younger people are collecting those years.
There are always ups and downs,but I think its pretty strong.

[Cardboard Junkie]

In my opinion the hobby is already dead, it just hasn't fallen down yet.

[vintagebaseballcardguy]

I am 40. I can remember 20 or 25 years ago having at least 5 brick and mortar card shops to go to, and the area I live in is not large. Looking back, these shops had a pretty good selection. The Internet (especially eBay) began to change everything in the second half of the 90s. Shops folded up, and even a lot of dealers who had their own websites went to eBay....this seems to have lightened up in the last few years. Guys who had shops sold out of their houses and on eBay. I now have access to one shop which is about 60 miles from my house. It is worth the drive. I don't care how extensive an on line inventory a dealer has, there is NO substitute for looking at and handling vintage cards in person. This includes commons and not just stars. Until computer and iPad screens give one the ability to smell the cardboard and musty surroundings of a real card shop, the experience on line will be cheaper. The shop I go to is owned by a gentleman in his early 70s. He is great and fair-minded and usually has good inventory. We all have lots of good conversation about the hobby. He has quality auctions every Tuesday night, too. He won't be around forever. When he's gone, I am not sure what I will do. I will always collect, but it won't be as good without that shop.

It's painting with a broad brush I know, but most of the "collectors" I know who are close to my age are really investment guys. Some of them know it, some don't. For them, on line works fine. Everything they buy is or will soon be in a plastic holder and sold the second a profit can be made, unless of course they are registry hounds. For me, there is something nostalgic, even romantic about 50s baseball cards. Our country grew up alongside baseball. I never even saw the guys I collect play, but they are larger than life heroes to me. I read about them, I watch documentaries about them, and I collect their cards. I guess that's how I see it. Thanks for asking, and best of luck with your book.

[brewing]

If stamps are still a hobby and hold their value, baseballcards are a long way from a dead hobby.

[Leon]

From my perspective the hobby grew exponentially (by leaps and bounds) with the advent of the internet. Now we can collaborate in seconds what used to take days, weeks and months. So if you have 10000 disparate collectors then that is one thing. However, if you have 5000 collectors that all collect together, then you have a much bigger and stronger hobby. I believe that is the best thing the internet has done for us. Most of us wouldn't have the collections we do today without the internet. I have quite often thought about this subject and I think it makes sense. That being said, I still love shows, especially the National. There is nothing like getting together every year with hundreds of my friends to hoot and holler.

[tulsaboy]

For what little it's worth, I think the hobby is in serious trouble. I think it will always exist in some form or another, because there will always be baseball fans, history fans, or folks who do things because their fathers did them and their fathers before. I would argue that a lot of this trouble can be placed squarely at the feet of both MLB and of the card manufacturers.

I collected primarily in the mid-80's-mid 90's, and was around for the transition from the older, simpler style sets (focus is the base set, there are some inserts and/or accessory sets to collect) to the newer model (who cares about the base set, everything is focused on chasing the inserts, 1/1 cards and parallel sets.) That approach, combined with the strike and the increased focus on cards as an investment instead of cards as simple fun has devestated our hobby, at least as it relates to kids.

Kids shouldn't have to worry about investments, value growth, condition, population reports and the other vagaries of our hobby that they now do. Collecting your favorite team, your favorite player, getting that small handful of packs from the corner store and hoping against all hope that they hold that one last card you need for your set- those should be the focus of a child.

I'm one who was not bothered at all by overproduction. The classic cited examples are 1988-1989 Topps and Donruss. You can still buy cases of those cards for less than they sold at wholesale when they were produced, and that is 24-25 years after the fact! Someone who wants a nice example of their favorite player's rookie card, if that player rookied in those years, can still get it for less than a buck. Collecting those sets is simple fun, and the focus is on the players, the cards, and the experience- not on the return on investment. I agree that it got rediculous, but I remember well searching through huge piles of those packs at Kmart, Target, Skaggs and Safeway, looking for Kevin Seitzer on the top of a blister pack, or Tom Glavine on the top of a Score wax pack, or for Sam Horn smiling from a rack pack. It was just fun. And because of the overproduction, mom bought those packs at a quarter each.

Cards are way too expensive. I understand economics, and that they aren't going to be 25 cents forever. But imagine a return to a product that focuses on a base set, with the occasional inserts. And those inserts aren't limited editions, or relic cards, or parallel sets- they are deckle edges, or stamps, or coins, or a game, or a glossy all-star set. Imagine 50 cent packs of 5 cards each, or 1 dollar packs with 10-12; imagine a rack pack where you could see the stars in all their glory peeking through the cellophane. What in the world is wrong with that?

Topps' monopoly did bring some semblance of order to a situation that had grown out of control. But like most sitautions, monopolies often aren't a good thing. It could be that a card company or product like I outlined above wouldn't find a market, because there wouldn't be the chance of finding the $500 card or the 1/1 relic card; it could be that it would be an absolute flop. But the way Topps has approached things, relic cards have lost their luster; parallel sets aren't anything unique; and the way they are chewing through their old sets and the tobacco-era products, it is only a matter of time before you see a Topps Archives set with everyone in the "historic 1998 design."

I keep boxes of packs from the mid-80's around to open when I need a fix, just because it is fun. I have a box of 1986 Topps sitting about 5 feet away from me as I sit here typing this, just waiting for me to have a bad moment at work that only baseball cards can fix. And isn't that sad? Why don't I have a box of 2013 Topps? Quite simply, because it is expensive and not much fun. My kids have had fun opening packs of mid-80's Topps; I'm not sure that I'll bother with the new stuff.

Kids should be able to go to a ballpark, or to their local store, and spend a reasonable amount of money (maybe the amount it takes to buy a coke in a vending machine) to get a pack of cards. Those cards should be well-designed, with a reasonable hope for the kids of completing a set. They should maybe even have some bubble gum included. If the hobby can't figure out a way to get kids involved, on a mass level, I believe that we will continue to watch a long, slow decline of folks interested in collecting baseball cards. They will get older and greyer (granted with higher disposable incomes) but without the simple joy of a kid opening his first pack of cards. As that happens, I think the card companies will continue to produce cards, but they will increasingly become a specialty thing not available on a regular basis. I remember when almost every grocery, drug, hardware and toy store had boxes of packs available. Made it fun for me (and expensive for mom.) And at the end of the day, isn't that the point?

kevin

[Stonepony]

Stamp collecting is dead, they've nearly completely lost their value. Go to a stamp show and there is no one there that wasn't there in 1975. I agree coins are very hot and going strong. Sports cards....I'm not sure if future generations will have the same interest in vintage cards outside the Cobbs, Ruths, Mantles etc...we'll see

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by brewing

If stamps are still a hobby and hold their value, baseballcards are a long way from a dead hobby.

Love your logo, Brent. My dad was in the Army Air Corps during the war, and I always loved that beautiful and classic logo on his uniforms in the closet. Unfortunately, Mom threw them all out when he died. I wished she had called me.

[vintagetoppsguy]

Originally Posted by Cardboard Junkie

In my opinion the hobby is already dead, it just hasn't fallen down yet.

^^^This

When I started collecting in the mid 80s, I remember there was a card show at one hotel or another (in Houston) just about every weekend. By the end of the decade, there were so many shows every weekend, you would have to pick which ones you wanted to attend because there was no way you would have time to hit them all. Same thing with shops. During that same time, there were dozens and dozens of card shops in Houston. Only two (that I know of) survived. I think those two factors say a lot about the state of the hobby.

[honus94566]

Originally Posted by vintagetoppsguy

^^^This

When I started collecting in the mid 80s, I remember there was a card show at one hotel or another (in Houston) just about every weekend. By the end of the decade, there were so many shows every weekend, you would have to pick which ones you wanted to attend because there was no way you would have time to hit them all. Same thing with shops. During that same time, there were dozens and dozens of card shops in Houston. Only two (that I know of) survived. I think those two factors say a lot about the state of the hobby.

Local card shows are dead. That doesn't mean the hobby is dead.

Now we have Ebay, big auction houses, little mom-and-pop auction houses, and the B/S/T section.

I do think baseball card collecting in general is losing popularity, and has for quite some time.

But I won't believe the hobby is dead, or anywhere near dying, when all the cards I want cost $1K plus because demand is high.

[Bocabirdman]

Originally Posted by vintagetoppsguy

^^^This

When I started collecting in the mid 80s, I remember there was a card show at one hotel or another (in Houston) just about every weekend. By the end of the decade, there were so many shows every weekend, you would have to pick which ones you wanted to attend because there was no way you would have time to hit them all. Same thing with shops. During that same time, there were dozens and dozens of card shops in Houston. Only two (that I know of) survived. I think those two factors say a lot about the state of the hobby.

Every day is a card show. The internet killed the "radio star". I'd wager that there are more transactions per day now than ever. What IS lost is the face-to face interaction but the cards are still traveling.

[BobC]

Interesting question and thread. However, the OP didn't specify which part of the card collecting hobby he was asking about. I think you can break the hobby up, depending upon the era you're collecting, and get different answers.

There's vintage/pre-war cards, which the people on this forum are primarily into. As many have already said, the shows have died out, card shops are gone, and everything seems to have been replaced by the internet. There will always be collectors for the big names/rare cards and as the economy goes, so will the vintage market ebb and flow. The internet has made vintage collecting much more feasible as a collector can now access items from literally around the world, where before they may have been limited to what showed up at the local card shows and at occasional auctions. The increased access has probably added more collectors to the vintage ranks as finding former elusive items is now a lot easier and can be done from one's home instead of having to go from store-to-store or show-to-show looking for that missing card. Values may be stagnant on most pre-war items for a while but, due to age and the innate human nature of many to be fascinated and want to collect historical/antique items, the pre-war cards will have a somewhat stable market for the forseeable future, with moderate growth overall, in my opinion.

Post-war cards, mostly 50's to the early 80's, is ruled by Topps. This is the era a lot of current collectors grew up in (ie:baby boomers). As expected, as the baby boomers hit the middle/late adult years, they had money and a desire to recapture things from their youth, which included things like baseball cards and comic books. Thus the 80's/90's explosion in the card market was borne, first by the initial wave of collectors looking to find cards from their youth, secondly by the entrepeneurs who recognized the first wave and figured they could make money off of them, and finally, by a third wave of somewhat naive people who saw what happened with the first two waves and thus viewed card collecting as a great investment vehicle/way to turn a quick profit like all the dot.com investors who saw the prosperity of the 90's spilling over into everything else. Well, the baby boomers all have the cards they want, PSA and the registry game could only continue that run so far. Then with the advent of the internet, the search and hunt for such cards was eliminated. If I want a 1968 Topps set I can go on Ebay right now and probably have it within a few minutes. What collecting fun/passion does that generate.....answer is, none. So even the true collectors weren;t as interested in the "hunt" anymore. These cards are still collected but, not in the way they once were. In the future they'll again begin to gain value as they become older and take on more of an antique/historic nature. Problem is, so many of these cards were made/kept that prices will remain fairly low for all but the superstars as supply will surely outstrip demand. In other words, none of us will live long enough to see these cards gaining big value.

The 80's, 90's and 00's card market was borne from greed of the people looking to capitalize on the card market, from the card companies, that vastly overproduced and saturated the market, to the investors/dealers all looking to make a buck. Oh the collectors were still there, just stuck in the middle of all the people looking for those 1000% profits they hoped to get from hoarding all the Jose Canseco rookies they could back in the day. And we all know how that turned out don't we? So then the card companies turned to putting in inserts and numbered cards, followed by autographed cards and finally adding bits of game used material to the cards, all in an attempt to keep the collector's interest and increase their sales and profits. They just kept going and going and overproduced everything to where it is was so watered down that cards couldn't keep their value. Who wanted last year's Derek Jeter autographed card, the collector had to have this year's version, and the card companies made sure to supply as many as the market would bear. Again, one day these cards may have increasing value but, you may have to wait for Buck Rodger's time before that happens.


Finally you get to the current/modern cards of today. There are almost no card shops or shows anymore. The sports themselves have taken a hand in policing the overproduction by card companies in the past by now limiting to whom they grant licensing to. Yet the surviving companies. like Topps and Panini, still thrive by gearing their products more and more to the breakers. These breakers go through Ebay and ultimately their own online venues and break open boxes and cases of newly released products live online for the people who bid/buy a team/division/random spot from them, pay through an online source like paypal, and then instead of opening the pack themselves, watch the breakers open it for them, live and online. The breakers then send the participant whatever cards they won. I work with a guy who just got into breaking with a friend of his this past Spring. They started out doing a night a week and can now easily be doing this three/four nights a week. Just this morning he showed me an order he placed with a distributor for $69,000, yes, $69K, of new product he says they'll go through and sell by breaking in just two or three weeks. And this is part-time a few nights a week for them and they do it out of his friends apartment (ie: no overhead). All you have to do is look at the latest offering from Panini in basketball, called Panini Flawless. The entire production was something like two boxes to a case, and a limited production of only about 450 cases. Now each box, which actually isn't a box but, a full-sized metal briefcase (yes briefcase that alone sells for about $50 I'm told), only holds 10 cards. So 10 cards x 2 boxes per case x 450 cases means the entire production run is only about 9000 cards. But wait, every card is a super insert hit, either with an auto, a jersey/patch, both, or they have an actual diamond or other precious gem embedded on the card. And every card is serial numbered with nothing higher than 20 in existence. Oh, and each box/briefcase was guaranteed to contain at least a Kobe/Kyrie Irving or Kevin Durant card in it. When this came out, my friend bought a couple cases at $2,350 a case. That is right, $2,350 a case (20 cards total). That was about a week and a half ago. On the dealer net out there my friend said he's seen a case now up to $4K+ and I believe he mentioned someone actually had a case on Ebay for around $5,200. My friend tells me that customers of his buy chances to get a card from products like these and hope for the huge hits. Apparently there have been single cards from this Flawless set that have been sold, not just listed but sold, on Ebay in the past week for $30,000. That is where the hobby is currently going. It is in the hands of the breakers who want high-end, huge cards that fuel collectors who are really just looking at this as another form of legalized gambling, hoping to get that huge card they can then turn around and flip on Ebay. And there are apparently plenty of current collectors who will pay big bucks for those manufactured rarities.

Meanwhile, a few weeks ago I won a 1922 Herpolsheimer's - John McGraw card in a PSA 5 holder off Ebay for a little over $200. Per the SCD catalog, there is only one single card of each player known to exist in that set. So I got a HOFer, almost 100 year's old, a true 1-of-1 card for that price, while someone else will pay $30K for a 1-of-1 Kyrie Irving card produced today. And then that same card company will issue another product next week with another 1-of-1 Kyrie Irving card in it, and then the week after that, and the week after that, and so on.....ad nauseum! There's the true state of the current collector hobby, as fostered and nurtured by the card companies still in business.


Bob C

[barrysloate]

From what I hear, Topps and Bowman sets from the late 40's to the 1960's are soft, and I find that very upsetting. I know the baby boomers who first collected them have gotten older, but those are some of the most beautiful and classic sets ever made. Why isn't the next generation interested in them?

[William Todd]

The next generation is buying housing and food, etc.

[barrysloate]

Originally Posted by William Todd

The next generation is buying housing and food, etc.

True, but while T206's are collected by everybody and his uncle, I can't figure out why 1949 Bowman, or 1953 Bowman, or 1957 Topps are no longer garnering much attention. With T206 so overpriced, why aren't collectors looking elsewhere?

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

True, but while T206's are collected by everybody and his uncle, I can't figure out why 1949 Bowman, or 1953 Bowman, or 1957 Topps are no longer garnering much attention. With T206 so overpriced, why aren't collectors looking elsewhere?

It's funny you mention those sets, as the '53 Bowman Color and 1957 Topps are two of the sets I will be collecting most.

When I see a '53 Bowman Color Stan Musial, Mickey Mantle or Pee wee Reese, or a 1957 Topps Hank Aaron, or Willie Mays, my heart skips a beat.

[deucetwins]

Great summary Bob. I would like to add a thought previously danced around by Barry. Look at all of the HOFers that Baby Boomers had to collect during their youth. Names that are uttered in reverence and awe. Now look at the HOFers or future HOFers of the modern era. Not very many with the same type of or better stats than those of yesteryear. Except for the hobby darlings (Ripken, Ryan, and Jeter) no other recent or future HOFer has the same luster. Who would you rather collect? Koufax or Blyleven? Aside from the business part of the hobby (shops, shows, card manufacturers, investors, etc.), I agree that baseball has faded somewhat as the national pastime and has been overtaken by football (thanks Pete Rozelle for the TV contract). I just don't believe that football cards or any other sport will ever be as popular as baseball cards simply because the foundation isn't strong enough. I'm 40, sober, and collect cards.

By the way, Daryl that is the best 88 Donruss card I've ever seen. I hope you have it in your set registry.

[OFF CENTER TRADING]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

From what I hear, Topps and Bowman sets from the late 40's to the 1960's are soft, and I find that very upsetting. I know the baby boomers who first collected them have gotten older, but those are some of the most beautiful and classic sets ever made. Why isn't the next generation interested in them?

The next generation IS interested in them. You just don't know it or have failed to recognize it. You may not necessarily see us at card shows, but that doesn't mean that we're not out there buying vintage cards and lurking on the message boards.

RLR

[ullmandds]

Ok...thats 2!

[barrysloate]

Originally Posted by OFF CENTER TRADING

The next generation IS interested in them. You just don't know it or have failed to recognize it. You may not necessarily see us at card shows, but that doesn't mean that we're not out there buying vintage cards and lurking on the message boards.

RLR

Glad to hear there may still be hope for the sets from the 50's. I think they are some of the best baseball collectibles out there.

[larrie804]

Yes, I am an old man (collector/dealer)! I am positive about the hobby's future...however, it is, IMO changing! First, I disagree with the broad statement that it is just a group of old men! A study on the board shows the average age of Net54 members to be in their early 40s...I do not consider 40 to be old! Secondly, as a dealer who does medium size regional shows (Chantilly, Raleigh, Greensboro, etc. I see more young folks now than 10 years ago!

I do see collecting interests changing! The biggest changes are two....those willing to pay stupid money for autos acquired in person at shows (Chantilly and the National) is increasing and the second (I like to think positive movement) is the increase in the past 5 years in vintage cards. My definition of vintage here is pre-1970!

[JollyElm]

To me it's simple. Back in my day we flipped cards night and day, constantly traded with our friends to get our favorite players and teams, we'd carry a bunch of cards in our pockets wherever we went and then we'd stick them in our bicycle spokes to get that cool whirring sound. Condition meant nothing.

Today? Kids open a new pack in a baseball card shop and handle each card very gingerly and immediately slide them into plastic sheets or holders. No wear, no tear, no baseball talk. The only thing said is, "How much is this one worth?"

[JasonL]

It's so obvious that we are all correct and horribly wrong about all of this at the same time.
I believe we are correct when we state that the hobby will survive. It's relative health will ebb and flow over the years, and it is large enough with a diverse enough demographic among the collector base to experience strength and weakness in various sub-areas over time.
I believe we are wrong when those among us simply compare today's activity at shows or price action to what I call the roaring 80s. That is like using the Tech bubble as a reference for the demise of the entire stock market. There will be areas of the market that could crash and not recover, but other areas will pick up and run.
Such a huge topic.
Nobody panic.
We will all be fine.
and if we're not, well then as some point out, there will be other more important things to worry about!

[mintacular]

Big star HOFers, classic/iconic cards especially higher grade will maintain value, all others will slowly decide/soften over the years and 25+ years from will slip even further...

Modern card market will spike and dive within year of production otherwise nosedive, not a worthwhile buy unless you can quick flip them....

JMO, nobody really knows but as stated the current generation (in general) could care less about collecting and therefore "future" not looking good in the Mid 21st century especially as paper goods fall to the wayside, not to mention technological advances could replicate vintage goods

[ullmandds]

it IS interesting how opinions are quite contrasting!!!! Only the shadow knows!

[pepis]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

it IS interesting how opinions are quite contrasting!!!! Only the shadow knows!

Oh yes many opinions! but only one fact!
as long as there is SPORTS in this country this hobby will NEVER die
it will go through picks and valleys but nostalgic americans will never let it die!!

[markf31]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

it IS interesting how opinions are quite contrasting!!!! Only the shadow knows!

It has been a very interesting thread to read so far. I think the hobby will be fine personally. I don't believe that you can point to the decline in the number of brick-n-mortar stores or card shows as an indicator that the hobby is slipping, fading away or will go away anytime soon, it simply means the methods and means of propagating the hobby have changed.

I would be willing to bet that more hobby transactions are made on a daily basis now than ever before! How many AH auctions close each month? How many Ebay auctions/listings end each month? All of these transactions have filled the hole created by the decline in the number of card shows and brick-n-mortar stores.

[jlehma13]

Originally Posted by mintacular

Big star HOFers, classic/iconic cards especially higher grade will maintain value, all others will slowly decide/soften over the years and 25+ years from will slip even further...

I would venture a guess there will continue to be a market for the low grade vintage cards as well. I wouldn't have gotten into collecting cards again had there not been an affordable way to do it.

Also, I cannot quote the latest age poll that was taken here however, the number of members in their 30's (myself included) I believe was fairly high. That's a good sign for now. Where the next generation's interest lies in the hobby, I don't know. Keep it to collecting and friendly interactions and the hobby may have the chance to grow.

[campyfan39]

Thanks everyone for the responses!