any guess on how many 52 mantles exist??

[mrvster]

hello all....

any good guesstimates on total 1952 mantles exist>????

[savedfrommyspokes]

I was asked this question by an experienced 52 Topps collector, and I guessed nearly 10k. This collector pointed out that there were approximately 1400 PSA graded (who knows how many resubmits are in the 1400), approximately 425 SGC graded copies, and another 150 graded by BGS. So with approximately 1975 graded copies (less resubs and crossovers) of the most popular post war card out there, I was told that 10K was too high.....after thinking about it for a second, I agreed, as this card would likely have one of the highest percent of available copies graded.

More likely there were "originally" 10K copies out there/issued, but due to natural disasters, Mom's pitching their kids card collections (how my Uncle lost his 52 Mantle back in the day), etc, my guess is now that there are as many ungraded copies of this card out there as there are graded copies. I know at least several board members who have ungraded copies in their collections. Probably many more copies sit in non active collector's safe deposit boxes somewhere, while many others are still buried in the attic/basement of a non-collector waiting to be unearthed.

So my guess now is that 3500-4000 copies still exist with maybe 2500 total copies in the hands of active collectors or are for sale.

The SPs from the high series are obviously much scarcer than the Mantle.

[mrvster]

great info! I really appreciate it

[irv]

It's a million dollar question for a million dollar card.

Some recent postings have talked about the amount of 52's made and some new info on how many were available.

If you read some of these, you will see, even way back then, cards 311-407 were in demand and carried a premium.

I am not sure if the question will ever be answered now, but it does make for some interesting reading.
http://www.net54baseball.com/showthread.php?t=233137

[rats60]

Originally Posted by savedfrommyspokes

I was asked this question by an experienced 52 Topps collector, and I guessed nearly 10k. This collector pointed out that there were approximately 1200 PSA graded (who knows how many resubmits are in the 1200), approximately 425 SGC graded copies, and another 150 graded by BGS. So with approximately 1775 graded copies (less resubs and crossovers) of the most popular post war card out there, I was told that 10K was too high.....after thinking about it for a second, I agreed, as this card would likely have one of the highest percent of available copies graded.

More likely there were "originally" 10K copies out there/issued, but due to natural disasters, Mom's pitching their kids card collections (how my Uncle lost his 52 Mantle back in the day), etc, my guess is now that there are as many ungraded copies of this card out there as there are graded copies. I know at least several board members who have ungraded copies in their collections. Probably many more copies sit in non active collector's safe deposit boxes somewhere, while many others are still buried in the attic/basement of a non-collector waiting to be unearthed.

So my guess now is that 3500-4000 copies still exist with maybe 2500 total copies in the hands of active collectors or are for sale.

The SPs from the high series are obviously much scarcer than the Mantle.

1775 grades. How many cards? 1000? 1200? Maybe even lower. I would say the majority of 52 Mantles are graded and in the hands of collectors. This isn't a card that someone is going to have and not know it. It is like the t206 Wagner. People know what they have. I would say 2000-2500 and maybe even lower depending on how many times these cards have been regraded.

[irv]

Originally Posted by rats60

1775 grades. How many cards? 1000? 1200? Maybe even lower. I would say the majority of 52 Mantles are graded and in the hands of collectors. This isn't a card that someone is going to have and not know it. It is like the t206 Wagner. People know what they have. I would say 2000-2500 and maybe even lower depending on how many times these cards have been regraded.

It's unfortunate that cards that were resubmitted for bumps or crossovers weren't tracked better.

[JustinD]

This was a double print high series. Yes, the high series are less common, but even so there was double the Mantles vs every other non-dp. It was also Mantle, so kids would have held tighter to a player like this in comparison to a Joe shablotnik.

I think as collectors we fall prey to being too closed minded and blind to the rest of the world. The collectors that grabbed these in the 60s, 70s and even 80s and left the collecting world are often blind to a small knowledge of grading and even if they know, could care less. I say one can only hazard a guess and there are far more than anyone thinks. If I could just wave a wand and find them, there should be at least 6000 survivors. There are likely more than people know of now sitting in closets in Florida retirement communities.

[irv]

Sorry, a bit off topic, but do the first series prints carry any sort of a premium over the DP series?

There are noticeable differences with Mickey Mantle but not as noticeable with Robinson or Thomson.
http://bbcemporium.com/1952-topps-mi...terfeit-guide/

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by JustinD

This was a double print high series. Yes, the high series are less common, but even so there was double the Mantles vs every other non-dp. It was also Mantle, so kids would have held tighter to a player like this in comparison to a Joe shablotnik.

I think as collectors we fall prey to being too closed minded and blind to the rest of the world. The collectors that grabbed these in the 60s, 70s and even 80s and left the collecting world are often blind to a small knowledge of grading and even if they know, could care less. I say one can only hazard a guess and there are far more than anyone thinks. If I could just wave a wand and find them, there should be at least 6000 survivors. There are likely more than people know of now sitting in closets in Florida retirement communities.

How many raw ones have you seen in the last 15 years? I think I've seen a total of 1.

Love of the game uncovered a collection of almost every topps set, and was missing the Mantle. I'd think less than 60 are still out there, but it will forever be conjecture. The card has always been expensive, and with all the recent hype and huge prices, you'd have to be in the dark if you didnt realize you had one of the most expensive cards out there. The internet and tv has brought antiques and collectibles to the forefront of people trying to get rich quick.

[1952boyntoncollector]

the real question is how many 'psa7-8' level ungraded copies are there out there.

paying 7000 for a card and there being 50 more of them out there is one thing

but paying 150k-400k and finding out there are 50 more more of them like that out there is another

[bswhiten]

My dad had three 52 Mantles and tossed them in college. That should help the calculation

[BearBailey]

There are thousands of mantles out there, if you go to any big show you still see plenty of them although in the past few years I do feel they are lower grade than in the past. 52 topps mantle has always been a supply side issue, too much demand and not enough supply. Most people I know who have mantles got them all before grading was common, and none of them have gotten them graded.

[brian1961]

Originally Posted by 1952boyntoncollector

the real question is how many 'psa7-8' level ungraded copies are there out there.

paying 7000 for a card and there being 50 more of them out there is one thing

but paying 150k-400k and finding out there are 50 more more of them like that out there is another

It seems to me Jake has identified the most crucial question in this discussion. There might be "a ton" of ungraded 1952 Topps Mantles, but come on, do you really think their technical grades would come out that high? Remember all those stories you've heard in your life about someone saying, "I'm sure it will grade MINT, or at the very least "NEAR MINT - MINT". Then it's graded by PSA or SGC and ....

Not to re-route this discussion one whit, but there was the most staggering exception that occurred some time last year. PSA's Joe Orlando put up a scan in his "Joe's Tweets" of a card that had just come through their grading mill---the second PSA 10 GEM MINT 1953 Topps #82 Mickey Mantle. To think that significant card had been a heretofore unique 1 of 1 for over 20 years, and now a still minuscule 1 of 2. The pair are nevertheless extremely valuable, and with a POP of only 2 at that level, the price point is still stratospheric. Be that as it may, I would imagine when the owner of the first '53 Gem Mint Mick saw Joe's Tweet, it was not "sweet" news to him.

Even the most crusty dinosaurs who have a "nice" ungraded '52 Topps Mickey will have had to have noticed the boo coo bucks being earned by other owners of said card ALL involved professionally-graded specimens. If they refuse to acknowledge the obvious, let's hope for their sake they do not wait until death or dementia overtakes them. At least with the Lucky 7 Ty Cobb find, there was a very happy ending for the family of the original owner of the cards. "Twas not always the case ....

---Brian Powell

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by brian1961

It seems to me Jake has identified the most crucial question in this discussion. There might be "a ton" of ungraded 1952 Topps Mantles, but come on, do you really think their technical grades would come out that high? Remember all those stories you've heard in your life about someone saying, "I'm sure it will grade MINT, or at the very least "NEAR MINT - MINT". Then it's graded by PSA or SGC and ....

Not to re-route this discussion one whit, but there was the most staggering exception that occurred some time last year. PSA's Joe Orlando put up a scan in his "Joe's Tweets" of a card that had just come through their grading mill---the second PSA 10 GEM MINT 1953 Topps #82 Mickey Mantle. To think that significant card had been a heretofore unique 1 of 1 for over 20 years, and now a still minuscule 1 of 2. The pair are nevertheless extremely valuable, and with a POP of only 2 at that level, the price point is still stratospheric. Be that as it may, I would imagine when the owner of the first '53 Gem Mint Mick saw Joe's Tweet, it was not "sweet" news to him.

Even the most crusty dinosaurs who have a "nice" ungraded '52 Topps Mickey will have had to have noticed the boo coo bucks being earned by other owners of said card ALL involved professionally-graded specimens. If they refuse to acknowledge the obvious, let's hope for their sake they do not wait until death or dementia overtakes them. At least with the Lucky 7 Ty Cobb find, there was a very happy ending for the family of the original owner of the cards. "Twas not always the case ....

---Brian Powell

Another issue is if your house burns down, its a heck of a lot easier to prove the value of a PSA graded psa 7 card versus a card you are saying 'is mint' to the insurance company. You would think at least for insurance reasons the card would get graded especially if its a high end card..

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by brian1961

It seems to me Jake has identified the most crucial question in this discussion. There might be "a ton" of ungraded 1952 Topps Mantles, but come on, do you really think their technical grades would come out that high? Remember all those stories you've heard in your life about someone saying, "I'm sure it will grade MINT, or at the very least "NEAR MINT - MINT". Then it's graded by PSA or SGC and ....

I think my stance on that was pretty clear in post 12 when I put -

"I have a different opinion than most, but I do not feel the Mantle is rare at all other than in pristine form."

Yes, in pristine it's crazy rare, but still not as rare as tons of other cards like Rutherford. There are only three 10's, but there are still 10s. I think those owners are likely all high level collectors that got them from the Mr. Mint find already brought up. I doubt there are many, if any, 9 or 10s in non-collector hands. Maybe an attic find someday like black swamp, but it's pretty unlikely. The hidden cards are likely low or mid grades that were purchased or well played with years ago.

My point is that if at any time between Ebay, shops and auction houses (and even leon's on this site) I can find 40+ examples daily. How can that be a rare card unless every one is selling theirs every two weeks? Even throwing the large number of cards being sold daily to the wind, there are still more PSA 10's of Mantle than every other card in the set.

[Neal]

All I know is that is most likely will never exist in my collection

The card of cards, imo

[Bigdaddy]

This sounds like a good job interview question from one of those new, high tech companies. I've seen some like "How many piano tuners are in Chicago?" or "How many gallons of water would fit in the Empire State Building?"

No one could reasonably know the answer, but the interviewer gets a chance to see the applicant's problem solving skills given limited knowledge and time.

So what do we know:
Approximately 1775 Micks have been graded by the major TPGs.
Some of those 1775 are re-grades, so the number of cards is somewhat less than 1775, maybe 10-20% less
Mick is a DP, so there were twice as many of him as most other high #s
Mick has always been highly collected - does this mean that more of his cards survived than the other high #s? or were they more 'well-loved' and therefore wore out faster and more likely to be thrown away? I'd guess that a larger percentage of his cards survived than other high numbers.
There are about 3-4 times more Mantles graded (on PSA) than most other '52s
Lots of 'speculative comments' above: Three in a town of 50,000 folks (would equate to ~19,200 at that rate for the US), only seen one ungraded copy in last few years, etc

The real unknown is the number of ungraded copies. Given the fact that it is a DP and maybe saved at a higher rate than other high #s, I'd guess the number is maybe two - three times the number of graded ones. Let's say 2.5.

So, 1750 * 0.8 (20% regrade) = 1400
1400 (graded) + 1400 * 2.5 (ungraded) = 4900

As time goes on, that number will only grow smaller as some are lost, destroyed by fire, flood, etc. Any copies that are found are already accounted for in the 'ungraded' category. And newly graded ones will just go from ungraded to graded, giving us better information on how many exist.

Of course, if you subscribe to the 'Wisdom of Crowds', then just have everyone give an estimate and average the numbers (taking out any obvious outliers).

[MattyC]

Here's a related question I've personally always wondered about the 1952 Topps Mantle-- how many are perfectly centered? It was interesting to read the linked Rosen Find article and see how both Fogel and Rosen mentioned the centered examples.

Gotta wonder if those printing machines shook a lot back then, or perhaps the man at the machine kept a flask on him at all times, lol.

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by Bigdaddy

This sounds like a good job interview question from one of those new, high tech companies. I've seen some like "How many piano tuners are in Chicago?" or "How many gallons of water would fit in the Empire State Building?"

lol, you are correct. This is totally a Fermi Question.

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by Republicaninmass

How many raw ones have you seen in the last 15 years? I think I've seen a total of 1

I've seen one raw one amongst just the people on this thread, lol.

Honestly one in 15 yrs? I have not paid attention, but quite a few. Granted a good percent of those were likely slabbed after but only if someone was planning on selling. I admit that I have bought tons of slabbed cards, but never put in a submission once.

Not everyone needs to use those services. If I like a card and do not plan on sellng I will keep it raw because I like it better. Many people are like that. I hate the ugliness of PSA holders, like the black surround of a SGC and feel that Beckett slabs are the most presentable of all. Saying that, I prefer the raw best.

I would grade if I was selling, but until then it waits. I have talked to many collectors, especially the long timers that are more than happy not grading. It's a reason I hold very little faith in population reports.

A true number of survivors will always be conjecture and opinion. I have a different opinion than most, but I do not feel the Mantle is rare at all other than in pristine form. Any card that can be found in multiples of 20+ any day of the week on ebay is not rare.

[Republicaninmass]

Not everyone needs to use those services. If I like a card and do not plan on sellng


As you mentioned All those people in retirement communities with Mantle's in their closets would plan on selling and need the money. My 90 yeard old grandmother knows the value of baseball cards through tv and the Internet.


I agree that people saved Ruth and Mantle anything, but I just cant see that many people collecting expensive baseball cards, still having them and not knowing about them. The last big find of 52s was 1986, almost 30 years ago! Any "new to market" or "recently found" Mantles would have so much hype around it, we'd be the first community to hear.

[JustinD]

Difference in generational perspectives.

In a less selfish generation they do not sell items like this even if they know the value unless desperate. If you did your retirement planning right, you pass items like that to children or grandchildren or it is found later...much like 7 examples of an actual incredibly rare card of Ty Cobb you kept in a paper bag in your junk room.

It's fine to have a differing opinion. I know mine is different than most and I am comfortable with that.

[JeremyW]

Originally Posted by Republicaninmass

How many raw ones have you seen in the last 15 years? I think I've seen a total of 1.

Love of the game uncovered a collection of almost every topps set, and was missing the Mantle. I'd think less than 60 are still out there, but it will forever be conjecture. The card has always been expensive, and with all the recent hype and huge prices, you'd have to be in the dark if you didnt realize you had one of the most expensive cards out there. The internet and tv has brought antiques and collectibles to the forefront of people trying to get rich quick.

The collection that LOTG auctioned had the '52 Mantle.

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by JeremyW

The collection that LOTG auctioned had the '52 Mantle.

My mistake, so how many new ones have come to auction in the last few years? You'd think with these kinds of prices, they'd be coming out of the woodwork.

Also, what's the point of people asking the value of their collections, who aren't looking to sell? 30 Mantles and 187 Mays cards...how many more MAYS cards are out there!


I don't think the card is scarce by any means, but I don't see thousands of them lurking in collections.

[JeremyW]

My guess, & it's only a guess, is that there are thousands of the '52 Mantles ungraded. I don't know if it's 5K or 20K, but they're out there. I'm not saying this to diminish their value. I think that demand would still outweigh supply well enough for the value to continue to increase.

[savedfrommyspokes]

Originally Posted by JustinD

There are likely more than people know of now sitting in closets in Florida retirement communities.

I agree.....not long ago, my parents (who are in their mid 70s) asked me to take a look at a friend's childhood collection. In an old shoe box he had recently retrieved from his deceased mother's home, were several hundred 52-55 Topps cards. No, there was no 52 Mantle or other 52 HI#s, but there were 2 53 Mantles, 2 near complete runs of 55 Hi #s (no Clemente though), some 53 Hi#s and a number of semi stars and HOFers. Most of the cards were in the 5-6 range grade wise. This guy could not remember why he even collected 60+ years ago, but he thinks because his best friend at the time did, so he collected too. Even today this guy would not know the difference between Mickey Mantle and Mickey Grasso.

I could have offered him a few $100 for the box and he would have gladly taken it....since he is my parent's friend, he is now well advised as to what he has and will one day, when he is ready, consign on my recommendation.

The point is there are likely still a good number of $10k+ collections, with 52 Mantles, lurking out there in shoe boxes belonging to people who have no idea of their value, just like my parent's friend. Maybe the T cards finds have become few and far between, but early post war card finds will continue for years to come as they are possessed by those still alive original owners (unlike the T cards).

Originally Posted by rats60

1775 grades. How many cards? 1000? 1200? Maybe even lower. I would say the majority of 52 Mantles are graded and in the hands of collectors. This isn't a card that someone is going to have and not know it. It is like the t206 Wagner. People know what they have. I would say 2000-2500 and maybe even lower depending on how many times these cards have been regraded.

As far as re-grades for bumps, this card would be one of the more unlikely candidates for this. Two reasons, first the cost. Second the fact that this card, more than any other post war card I can think of, experiences the more visually appealing (no matter the grade) copies of this card selling for premiums over the less appealing. Visually appealing "Authentic" copies of this card sell for more than some o/c 3s....to me, not worth spending the $700 for half a point and no added value as buyers have proved with this card, they will pay for the visual appeal over the grade.

While there are some examples for sure out there (I just have not seen any), I doubt that 500+ copies of 1775 total graded have been bumped and now have abandoned serial numbers showing up in the population reports.

[MattyC]

Originally Posted by JustinD

TIt was also Mantle, so kids would have held tighter to a player like this in comparison to a Joe shablotnik.

Because the Mantle would have been handled so much, more odds in my opinion that they were either lost to time or are now extremely worn beaters.

Bottom line, no one knows, yet one thing I can offer for certain to the discussion is that there are indeed many phantoms in the pop reports. I personally know many guys who have cracked or crossed over the card. Yes, it was very valuable in whatever holder it originally sat in, but the profit motive tied to the next bump up is incentive enough for many to play that game. In fact, there are many Mantle cards that have been graded several times per card, inflating the population. By how much precisely, again, impossible to say.

I only go by the population reports, because they are the only actual data (however flawed by crackouts and crossovers) that we have. People's opinions on what is out there raw can just vary so wildly. Plus, there is no telling when or if raw cards will be found and brought to grading-- and this is definitely a card the risk averse will want to buy graded. So rather than waiting for Godot, I gotta go with what is known.

One last thing I can say for certain is that precious few examples of the Mantle have no tilt and good centering. For the collector who abhors tilt and likes centering, the card poses a challenge that is belied by the sheer pop numbers.

[LuckyLarry]

Mr. Mint's 1952 Topps find (1986)

http://www.psacard.com/articles/arti...-baseball-find

Larry

[irv]

Originally Posted by LuckyLarry

Mr. Mint's 1952 Topps find (1986)

http://www.psacard.com/articles/arti...-baseball-find

Larry

Thanks Larry.

Although I believe I have read that story before, I don't recall reading about the John Rutherford card?
That is something I wasn't aware of but answers my questions why I seen such a high grade (7-8) fetch very large money$$$!

I can't see it on my card but I will have to pull it to have a closer look under a magnifying light that I own.