Card value estimating

[Archive]

Posted By: identify7

What seems like a while ago, but isn't, I started to collect pre-Topps cards. I chose the e-mail and eBay handle "identify7" to remind me that in order to make informed purchases I should identify (7) sales of the wanted card, so that I know what to bid.

I didn't realize then that most of the cards which I want would take forever to identify seven successful bids on. And once I achieved that, the earlier bids would no longer be applicable. Heck, many cards which I have purchased and not purchased have appeared on eBay once, twice or never in the past two years.

So I have been using the following method of bid estimating, taken from Julie's approach:

- give yourself up to the force
- guess the value of the card which you want
- add 20%
- add more dependent on how long you have been waiting for the card to appear
- wait 'til the last possible second and place your bid, or use a sniper
- realize that although you have overpaid for your card, at least it is one less that you have to look for. So what if you have to wait a little longer to realize appreciation?

What method do you use?

Edited to add title