JSA and PSA/DNA are the best things to happen to this hobby

[Deertick]

Originally Posted by David Atkatz

Your absurd statement (And I quote.):

"They are right 99% of the time. Only a moron thinks they are bad for the hobby."

I believe that in order to determine the percentage of authentic/non-authentic, one would need the populations of both categories. I don't believe the former is published, so any guess as to their success rate would be just that.

I heard once that 86% of all statistics were made up on the spot. I'm not sure if that is exact, but I think it's close.

[RichardSimon]

PSA is brilliant in marketing and making money.
After that I am not so sure.

PSA/DNA reported on their site last year that they were approaching 3 million authentications, with a current rate of 35K per year. I think JSA's been around for 8 years or so? Would they have a comparable number? Are we looking at 5-6 million between the two to date, with the number climbing at a rate of over 1,000 per week?

How many fakes have been found? I take it some people on this site believe the number of fakes authenticated by these 2 companies is 10% or greater - meaning a half-million or more fakes are out there with PSA/DNA or JSA certs? If so, what's that extrapolation based on? When I search the 'net, I can't find more than a few hundred questionable/challenged items. Is there a site that documents tens of thousands?

Isn't there a big number of "slam dunks" that these guys verify - autographs that are extremely easy to authenticate, and autos verified at shows where the autograph guest is present? Wouldn't those alone ensure a relatively high overall accuracy rate?

FWIW, if you look at eBay sold and active listings, about 80% of PSA/DNA and JSA items are sports and 20% entertainment, so I'm guessing that's a good estimate for the split between the two autograph types.

[shelly]

They authenticate UDA,Stinson, Simon, Checks, in person autographs and I am sure more slam dunks than I can think of.

[Runscott]

It's possible that Travis' tirades against PSA and JSA has made some collectors feel better about them.

Based on the autographs I have looked at that were authenticated by PSA or JSA, and I have no interest in modern stuff or in non-sports, I would guess that they get things right maybe 80% of the time, and less with the names that are most often forged (see PSA's website for their own list).

edited to add: I don't really care what the percentage is, as I completely ignore LOA's when I am looking at autographs. But what makes me sick is when a board member posts an autograph that he is proud of, that is a blatant forgery, and he feels secure because he has a PSA or JSA authentication. I have sent PM's to board members in the past when I saw this happen, and I generally received a really angry response. So I quit doing that. I have also noticed that few other members respond when such forgeries are posted - if it's a blatant fake, there will be dead silence. No one wants to be the bearer of bad news to a fellow board member.

[Maddog]

Originally Posted by Deertick

I believe that in order to determine the percentage of authentic/non-authentic, one would need the populations of both categories. I don't believe the former is published, so any guess as to their success rate would be just that.

I heard once that 86% of all statistics were made up on the spot. I'm not sure if that is exact, but I think it's close.

I once had a very skilled and knowledgeable Financial Statistican tell me (jokingly I hope)- Statistics are 50% whatever the client wanted and 50% guess work

[Lordstan]

Personally, it's not the fact that they make mistakes. We all do. I would be willing to bet that every advanced autograph collector/dealer has bought and/or sold an autograph that turned out to be fake. I don't even care that much about the exact percentage. My biggest problem with them is the type of mistakes that they make.

1) Both certed a misspelled Ed Delahanty. Just a 30K mistake. How do you have a lot of faith in a company that can't get an opinion right where the name is spelled wrong? This is either sloppiness, which, considering their prices, is unacceptable or bias based on the relationship with the auction house.

2) Both certed and issued letters for a note supposedly written and signed by mid 1800s boxing champ Tom Sayers. They both pulled their certs AFTER it was pointed out that no one had an exemplar. They followed that by giving opinions, that the auction house published, that both felt the sig was real, even though they had nothing to compare it to. How could they have that opinion? It's not like it was a legal document or something similar. Perhaps, instead of all that, they should've seen they had no exemplar beforehand and stated they couldn't offer an opinion or issue a cert in the first place.

3) They have both issued certs for items in frames without removing them. Why? Lazy/Sloppy?

4) They both have rejected items they previously certed as real. Because the "in the presence" sticker was removed and the items were submitted back to them with letters from Chris Morales. Bias?

5) I have had at least two cases, personally, where PSA and/or JSA has rejected something I sold privately only to have them both cert the same item when submitted by a dealer that I wound up selling them to after the other deals fell through. Bias?

These and many other examples of similar types can be found. IMHO, They reflect sloppiness, greed, favoritism, and shady behavior. None of these things boost my confidence in the "service" they offer.

Now I don't mind having a service where, those who desire it, can send something in to get the opinion of someone who is more knowledgeable about autographs. Another big problem with both PSA and JSA is that no one has any idea who's opinion they are getting. For example, Jim Spence's name is at the bottom of every cert. Does that mean he sees every one? I doubt it. So I am supposed to pay for the opinion of some unknown person of unknown training and experience. Now, Spence may stand behind the opinion of his employee, but neither offers a guarantee or warranty on the items they opine on. Many sellers, including some big auction houses like REA, will state that the PSA or JSA opinion is final. So you buy it and you find out it's fake, the seller won't take it back and the TPA states you are only paying for our opinion. Now to be fair, I have heard of a situation where PSA has reimbursed someone for a wrong opinion, but it's at their discretion solely. IMO, a warranty should be part of their service agreement otherwise, how is that better than getting the opinion of the members of this or any other collecting board? After all, the original purpose for their existence was not to make the item sell for more money, but to ensure that the autograph being bought or sold was real.

M@rk Vel@rde

[David Atkatz]

What he (so eloquently and clearly) said.

[Big Dave]

I have many examples similar to those stated by Lordstan, but I'll just state I don't agree that they have been good for this hobby.

[Exhibitman]

Yes, but...condemning all legit TPGs for making the occasional mistake is like condemning all doctors because sometimes patients do not recover or condemning air travel because every so often there is a crash. Mistakes will happen--like letting Travis post here--because all human Endeavors are imperfect [even a Space Shuttle blew up]. The bigger question for any service is whether on the whole it provides value or not. For many collectors TPGs do so. The fact that we can pick out TPG errors and recall them is because there are relatively few of them as compared to the volume of items handled. It just doesn't make good gossip when PSA or JSA gets it right, which they do the vast majority of the time.

[Runscott]

Adam, your points are well-made, but I don't express my TPA concerns because it makes good gossip. If the airlines had a similar failure rate, I would express my dismay and point out obvious problems if I knew them. The reason the TPAs get away with poor performance is that their customers aren't all knowledgeable enough to notice the 'crashes'.

[Lordstan]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Yes, but...condemning all legit TPGs for making the occasional mistake is like condemning all doctors because sometimes patients do not recover or condemning air travel because every so often there is a crash. Mistakes will happen--like letting Travis post here--because all human Endeavors are imperfect [even a Space Shuttle blew up]. The bigger question for any service is whether on the whole it provides value or not. For many collectors TPGs do so. The fact that we can pick out TPG errors and recall them is because there are relatively few of them as compared to the volume of items handled. It just doesn't make good gossip when PSA or JSA gets it right, which they do the vast majority of the time.

Adam,
Your response made think about a few things and have a few more questions.

You use the phrase "Legit TPGs" What other legit TPGs are you referring to? The title of this thread is specific to JSA and PSA/DNA, as was my post. Let's be frank...There really aren't any other legit TPGs that have any significant amount of usage in the hobby. We all know the deal with Morales, STAT, Taylor, ACE, Priddy, Max, etc, so they're not whom we are talking about.

Your example using doctors and air travel really doesn't fit with what I wrote. I stated that having a service to provide authenticity opinions is fine as long as the quality of the service is there. I have what I think are a couple more appropriate examples.
1) Suppose there was a surgeon who had done a 1000 surgeries in his lifetime, but cut off the wrong leg on 2 different patients. Would you have a lot of confidence in that doctor, even though his success rate was 99.8%? Would you want to know he cut off the wrong leg twice? Don't you think that would be important information?
So the big guys can get all the Bo Diaz's, Doug Flynn's, Orlando Merced's, etc of the world right, which boosts their accuracy %, but they can't get ONE 30 thousand dollar autograph correct when it's as simple as being misspelled?? I'm supposed to look at this and say...I'm not worried, he only cut off the wrong leg twice, he got all the rest right! He's the best thing to happen to the medical profession. Suuuure.

2) How about an airline that has had 2 crashes in 1000 flights, both due to the fact that they bought inferior parts to save money? Now suppose that supplier was from a company run by the CEO's brother? Would you cry bias? Would you think that this airline was a net positive to the airline industry?

3) Suppose I came to a law firm as a new client. The lead guy I speak to sells me on his skill and I engaged his services. He then proceeds to give all the work to his associate, who hands it to the courts or me without the lead attorney's review. I go on to lose my case, not because no one can win every case, but because the associate has made some critical error or oversight. Now, I'm mad. Why? Well, I was sold on the head guys skill as a lawyer, but I got someone else's work. I realize that associates and assistants do a lot of the ground work, but I expect oversight from the lead attorney. Sure, the associate graduated from Law School and passed the Bar, but that doesn't mean he has the skill and experience that I was expecting when I hired the lead lawyer. Same with these guys. Sure Spence's and the guys at PSA names are on the letter, but whose work am I actually getting? Just because the reviewers collected autographs, maybe got some training in house, and have an exemplar file to look at doesn't mean that they are skilled at authentication.

If I hire Jim Stinson or Richard Simon to authenticate an autograph, I know whose opinion I am getting. I can speak with them and they will inform me as to why they feel the way they do. Unfortunately, most of the non serious collecting public don't know who they are, certs from them aren't viewed in the same way as PSA/JSA.
The big boys want to be paid for their opinions as experts, yet want no responsibility for the consequences of the decisions that are made based upon those opinions. As a family physician, I am paid for my expert opinions as well. The difference is that I am held responsible for the outcomes of my recommendations. This is especially true if my recommendations were made with carelessness, bias, sloppiness, and greed. Hell, some people will try to sue doctors for honest mistakes or poor outcomes, even though any outcome can never be guaranteed in the first place. So if I can be held accountable for my actions, why can't they? We are all PAYING for a service, I think it is reasonable and our right to question the quality of that service.
Again, I'm not saying they don't most correct, but the apparent reasons they get some wrong certainly don't inspire confidence.

[RichardSimon]

Originally Posted by Lordstan

Personally, it's not the fact that they make mistakes. We all do. I would be willing to bet that every advanced autograph collector/dealer has bought and/or sold an autograph that turned out to be fake. I don't even care that much about the exact percentage. My biggest problem with them is the type of mistakes that they make.

1) Both certed a misspelled Ed Delahanty. Just a 30K mistake. How do you have a lot of faith in a company that can't get an opinion right where the name is spelled wrong? This is either sloppiness, which, considering their prices, is unacceptable or bias based on the relationship with the auction house.

2) Both certed and issued letters for a note supposedly written and signed by mid 1800s boxing champ Tom Sayers. They both pulled their certs AFTER it was pointed out that no one had an exemplar. They followed that by giving opinions, that the auction house published, that both felt the sig was real, even though they had nothing to compare it to. How could they have that opinion? It's not like it was a legal document or something similar. Perhaps, instead of all that, they should've seen they had no exemplar beforehand and stated they couldn't offer an opinion or issue a cert in the first place.

3) They have both issued certs for items in frames without removing them. Why? Lazy/Sloppy?

4) They both have rejected items they previously certed as real. Because the "in the presence" sticker was removed and the items were submitted back to them with letters from Chris Morales. Bias?

5) I have had at least two cases, personally, where PSA and/or JSA has rejected something I sold privately only to have them both cert the same item when submitted by a dealer that I wound up selling them to after the other deals fell through. Bias?

These and many other examples of similar types can be found. IMHO, They reflect sloppiness, greed, favoritism, and shady behavior. None of these things boost my confidence in the "service" they offer.

Now I don't mind having a service where, those who desire it, can send something in to get the opinion of someone who is more knowledgeable about autographs. Another big problem with both PSA and JSA is that no one has any idea who's opinion they are getting. For example, Jim Spence's name is at the bottom of every cert. Does that mean he sees every one? I doubt it. So I am supposed to pay for the opinion of some unknown person of unknown training and experience. Now, Spence may stand behind the opinion of his employee, but neither offers a guarantee or warranty on the items they opine on. Many sellers, including some big auction houses like REA, will state that the PSA or JSA opinion is final. So you buy it and you find out it's fake, the seller won't take it back and the TPA states you are only paying for our opinion. Now to be fair, I have heard of a situation where PSA has reimbursed someone for a wrong opinion, but it's at their discretion solely. IMO, a warranty should be part of their service agreement otherwise, how is that better than getting the opinion of the members of this or any other collecting board? After all, the original purpose for their existence was not to make the item sell for more money, but to ensure that the autograph being bought or sold was real.

M@rk Vel@rde

+++++

And to add insult to injury when they "authenticated" (using that term very loosely) the Delahanty letter, whether through ignorance or possible favoritism, they did not even note in their COA's that his last name was misspelled. And it was a big auction house where I discovered the Delahanty letter being sold. Starts with H and ends with t.
All dealers and TPA's make mistakes and that is part of the autograph business.
But the bias issue is where I have a big problem with TPA's.

[shelly]

Originally Posted by RichardSimon

+++++

And to add insult to injury when they "authenticated" (using that term very loosely) the Delahanty letter, whether through ignorance or possible favoritism, they did not even note in their COA's that his last name was misspelled. And it was a big auction house where I discovered the Delahanty letter being sold. Starts with H and ends with t.
All dealers and TPA's make mistakes and that is part of the autograph business.
But the bias issue is where I have a big problem with TPA's.

What I hate the most is when the auction take down the piece and give no reason. They never admit the authenticator was wrong.