Market flattening definitely

[Snapolit1]

With rare exception, the market has dropped in the last 12 for most of the cards you guys talk about on this board. Pre war and post war. Ignore it if you want. I agree with Matty, collect what floats your boat. But acknowledge the economics of the market.

Heritage is an amazing auction house. And I have no doubt that if I looked at the top 20 cards they just sold more than 3/4 of them would be down from last Fall.

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

With rare exception, the market has dropped in the last 12 for most of the cards you guys talk about on this board. Pre war and post war. Ignore it if you want. I agree with Matty, collect what floats your boat. But acknowledge the economics of the market.

Heritage is an amazing auction house. And I have no doubt that if I looked at the top 20 cards they just sold more than 3/4 of them would be down from last Fall.

what's your motive for spewing your crap?

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

what's your motive for spewing your crap?

Because I posted that the market has weakened and I had a list of people quickly telling me I didn't know what the hell I was talking about.

I'm not a big fan of living in make believe worlds. Much prefer reality. We can all make believe all our cards are shooting up in value if it makes you feel better but it's simply not true.

[mechanicalman]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Because I posted that the market has weakened and I had a list of people quickly telling me I didn't know what the hell I was talking about.

I'm not a big fan of living in make believe worlds. Much prefer reality. We can all make believe all our cards are shooting up in value if it makes you feel better but it's simply not true.

To be clear, you made the bold assertion that the market is "flattening definitely." You were presented evidence refuting that claim. I didn't see one person boldly claiming the converse, that all prices were rising. So your drink the koolaid comments are misdirected. Why is it so hard to admit that there are winners and losers right now, and a blanket statement, either way, is a weak argument?

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by mechanicalman

To be clear, you made the bold assertion that the market is "flattening definitely." You were presented evidence refuting that claim. I didn't see one person boldly claiming the converse, that all prices were rising. So your drink the koolaid comments are misdirected. Why is it so hard to admit that there are winners and losers right now, and a blanket statement, either way, is a weak argument?

Precisely. Just as in the coin market, certain sections of the market will be in focus and therefore "hot," while others are quiet. An interesting analysis of the coin market's history and the ups and downs of various portions of it can be found in several of Q. David Bowers' books, one of the foremost experts in that collectibles field. My own study of the card and car markets is in accord. Things that are available in reasonably significant quantity will be cyclical, especially in ultra high grade. Those which are decidedly outright rare and significant (or "popular," if you wish to use Bowers' preferred term) appreciate in value in a much more linear fashion. The time to buy is when the latter segment is in a quiet phase, but determining what will be deemed rare and significant and significantly more valuable in the future is up to the individual collector. That comes through research into both baseball history and knowledge about what's out there in cards. Some of your choices will be right on, and some will not. Condition, the last factor in the value equation, is the easiest to determine.

May your collecting be joyful in any event,

Larry

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by ls7plus

Precisely. Just as in the coin market, certain sections of the market will be in focus and therefore "hot," while others are quiet. An interesting analysis of the coin market's history and the ups and downs of various portions of it can be found in several of Q. David Bowers' books, one of the foremost experts in that collectibles field. My own study of the card and car markets is in accord. Things that are available in reasonably significant quantity will be cyclical, especially in ultra high grade. Those which are decidedly outright rare and significant (or "popular," if you wish to use Bowers' preferred term) appreciate in value in a much more linear fashion. The time to buy is when the latter segment is in a quiet phase, but determining what will be deemed rare and significant and significantly more valuable in the future is up to the individual collector. That comes through research into both baseball history and knowledge about what's out there in cards. Some of your choices will be right on, and some will not. Condition, the last factor in the value equation, is the easiest to determine.

May your collecting be joyful in any event,

Larry

Appreciate the joyful comment very much. I get great joy from collecting and, believe it or not, from posting stuff on this board and sometimes getting my balls busted. It beats talking politics these days. I agree than its always some are up and some are down. I don't dabble in the deepest end of the pool by a long shot, but I do collect some nice 6s and 7s of Ruth and Gehrig and a few others. Goudeys, Caramels, nice Exhibits, rare strip cards. And I watch a lot of the other cards pretty carefully at least 1920-50. To my eye there has been a softening in demand for most of these cards. Not dramatic but noticeable. Looks at the Goudey 7s. Look at the rarer Gehrig cards (which I collect). Look at the CJs. I see at least a breather and more probably a genuine dip. I find the economics of the market to be pretty fascinating stuff, but I know to many of you it is anathema.

[calvindog]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Because I posted that the market has weakened and I had a list of people quickly telling me I didn't know what the hell I was talking about.

I'm not a big fan of living in make believe worlds. Much prefer reality. We can all make believe all our cards are shooting up in value if it makes you feel better but it's simply not true.

Steve, no one is claiming that the market is going up in order to convince themselves their collections are worth more than they are. They're saying so based on how much more they have to pay for the same cards they were buying a year ago. Yes, this is an anecdotal endeavor. But the anecdotes that are coming out suggest that your claim that the market is 'definitely' flattening out is just wrong. Cracker Jacks are up by a lot from last year. T206s are up by a lot. Rare postcards are up huge. This is covers a wide swath of the hobby. Some issues are down, no question, that's always the case. But if you speak to anyone who has a major collection and spends 6-7 figures a year on cards I'm fairly certain that they'll tell you that card prices on average are going up.

[Vintageclout]

Originally Posted by calvindog

Steve, no one is claiming that the market is going up in order to convince themselves their collections are worth more than they are. They're saying so based on how much more they have to pay for the same cards they were buying a year ago. Yes, this is an anecdotal endeavor. But the anecdotes that are coming out suggest that your claim that the market is 'definitely' flattening out is just wrong. Cracker Jacks are up by a lot from last year. T206s are up by a lot. Rare postcards are up huge. This is covers a wide swath of the hobby. Some issues are down, no question, that's always the case. But if you speak to anyone who has a major collection and spends 6-7 figures a year on cards I'm fairly certain that they'll tell you that card prices on average are going up.

+1! Well said Jeff!

[frankbmd]

Putting the word "definitely" in a thread title is sure fire way to stir up controversy.

[pokerplyr80]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Because I posted that the market has weakened and I had a list of people quickly telling me I didn't know what the hell I was talking about.

I'm not a big fan of living in make believe worlds. Much prefer reality. We can all make believe all our cards are shooting up in value if it makes you feel better but it's simply not true.

It sounds like you're not taking the appearance of the specific card into consideration in the examples you've cited. Many of these price fluctuations for cards in the same grade are due to a big premium being paid for either a nice centered card, or one that looks like it could bump. When this is followed by an off centered or tilted card that barely made its grade, it can look like the market is tanking. More often then not this is just not the case.

For the cards and auctions I follow, 50s and 60s hof rookies are down from last year. Many other cards are up. The cards I've sold that were bought in the last year or two were sold for a profit. And the ones I'm after are going for more than I would have paId a year ago. If you think that means I'm living in a make believe world so be it. But it seems like reality to me.