Will there be a post-war card again like the 52 Mantle ?

[Volod]

Originally Posted by larietrope

Did the 52 Mantle hit at the perfect time ? Decades ago not many would have said a post-war baseball card would command over a million dollars.
Do you think there will ever be a "big one" like the Mantle to hit or is it all over past the 52 Mick ?

My guess is that in the next post-war, apocalyptic period, anyone left will not be worrying about the auction price of sportscards.

[Empty77]

Originally Posted by Volod

My guess is that in the next post-war, apocalyptic period, anyone left will not be worrying about the auction price of sportscards.

So at this rate, like sometime next year?

[chalupacollects]

No, never again... the card companies long ago ruined that...maybe a 1 of 1 Mike Trout auto rookie 4 color patch card graded gem mint 10. If that even exists... and if he is in top 5 all time in top offensive categories and unanimous HOF first time ballot.... lol

[Leon]

Not baseball but...

Jordan rookie

.

[RaidonCollects]

I think it could happen. The '68 Ryan/Koosman and the '89 UD Griffey are already very popular, but not as much as the Mantle. Mickey Mantle defined the 1950s and 60s for baseball, and until someone else does that, there will not be another '52 Mantle. Also, I think that even with manufactured scarcity there can still be huge demand for some cards, take the 2008 Topps Kershaw for example.

Just my thoughts

Owen

[irv]

Originally Posted by RaidonCollects

I think it could happen. The '68 Ryan/Koosman and the '89 UD Griffey are already very popular, but not as much as the Mantle. Mickey Mantle defined the 1950s and 60s for baseball, and until someone else does that, there will not be another '52 Mantle. Also, I think that even with manufactured scarcity there can still be huge demand for some cards, take the 2008 Topps Kershaw for example.

Just my thoughts

Owen

The Ryan RC is already there. Only 1.2 or 1.5 CDN for this one!
http://www.ebay.ca/itm/1968-Topps-17...item2387fdcdbe

[steve B]

I doubt there will be another 52 Mantle sort of situation anytime soon. It's got all the things that make for a really expensive collectible.

It's not common at all, but not so rare that someone couldn't find one.
The subject is incredibly popular, even across generations.
Bonus for the subject being possibly the biggest star from the biggest media market, And that he was that star at just about the perfect time.
It's got a good backstory, maybe not as good as the Wagner, but the fewer produced/not necessarily available everywhere/Excess unsaleable inventory being dumped off a trash barge by the company is a pretty good one.

Today there's too much access to the players for them to be as revered as the players in the 50's.
The PED era leaves most of us with just a bit of doubt/mistrust.
Cards are widely collected, so most get saved as opposed to thrown out.
Companies just don't usually operate in ways that would lead to a great backstory, and if for some reason they did we're all too jaded to find it amazing.

Imagine if Mantle had played for Kansas City, and was regularly in the paper for drinking too much and saying crass things, and the High numbers had hung around the warehouse for a decade or two until they got sold to the Christmas racks makers. No matter how great he was his card would be just another star card.

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by Leon

Not baseball but...

Jordan rookie

.

Interesting thought. Jordan is the only player (other than perhaps Tom Brady) since Mantle who has dominated like Mantle (one of just seven players in all of baseball history who created more than 200% of the runs created by a league average player in the course of his entire career (with the others being Cobb, Ruth, Williams, Hornsby, Gehrig and Joe Jackson--Mays and Aaron, in comparison, were each in the 180% range); 12 pennants won in his first 14 years, and seven WS championships). On the negative side regarding the '86-87 Fleer: print run has been estimated at 200,000.

Highest regards,

Larry

PS: Jordan probably is the only athlete since Mantle to have made a similar impact on the professional sports scene.

[RaidonCollects]

Just adding to my previous statement, the Mantle card had so many different factors which contributed to the cards' fame.

1. He was a superstar, everyone knew his name by the mid-50s.
2. Iconic design ('52 topps).
3. Relative level of scarcity (while there are rarer early mantle cards like the '52 Berk Ross, the 52 Mantle's popularity was immensely boosted by it's notoriety for being tougher than many other 52 cards).
4. Interesting stories about the card, such as the tale of the NYC Harbor '52 high# cases (even if it may be made up).
5. Made in a important year for the player (most of the time a rookie, or in this case a year off being a rookie).

An example of a card that comes fairly close is the Billy Ripken 89 Fleer, which fits into 1, 3 and 4 (less so 1, but he was still a very noteworthy player).

The chances of this all happening again in the near future are quite low, but I think it is entirely possible.

Just my thoughts,

Owen

[rats60]

Originally Posted by ls7plus

Interesting thought. Jordan is the only player (other than perhaps Tom Brady) since Mantle who has dominated like Mantle (one of just seven players in all of baseball history who created more than 200% of the runs created by a league average player in the course of his entire career (with the others being Cobb, Ruth, Williams, Hornsby, Gehrig and Joe Jackson--Mays and Aaron, in comparison, were each in the 180% range); 12 pennants won in his first 14 years, and seven WS championships). On the negative side regarding the '86-87 Fleer: print run has been estimated at 200,000.

Highest regards,

Larry

No one cared about how many runs Mantle hypothetically created. No one was playing fantasy baseball in 1952. If it was Willie Mays or Eddie Mathews on the Yankees, hitting 500 Hrs and winning 12 pennants and 7 championships in 14 years, their card would be the million dollar card and Mantle would be much less.

It is the first major set for a company making baseball cards for 65+ years aligning with a 2nd year card of the star of the greatest dynasty in baseball history.

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by rats60

No one cared about how many runs Mantle hypothetically created. No one was playing fantasy baseball in 1952. If it was Willie Mays or Eddie Mathews on the Yankees, hitting 500 Hrs and winning 12 pennants and 7 championships in 14 years, their card would be the million dollar card and Mantle would be much less.

It is the first major set for a company making baseball cards for 65+ years aligning with a 2nd year card of the star of the greatest dynasty in baseball history.

They care about analytics now, and have a great deal since Bill James began to publish his Baseball Abstract in the '80's. Come on in out of the 1950's--in addition to Mantle's superiority over Mays and Aaron during the time they were all active (which goes to quality, rather than quantity established through longevity), it certainly didn't hurt that Mantle's teams won the pennant in 12 of the first 14 years of his career, or that he averaged a home run every 12-point something times at bat FOR TEN, YES TEN, YEARS! And for educational purposes, Mantle's runs created are certainly not "hypothetical." James' arrived at a formula for predicting the number of runs a team would score by an extremely thorough mathematical consideration of both positive and negative events in relation to run scoring which was proven to be incredibly accurate. He then concluded that there was no reason the same formula could not be applied to individual players. wRC+ performs a similar function, while OBPS comes close to doing the same thing in a somewhat shorthand manner.

For your information, Eddie Mathews is ranked as the second greatest third baseman of all time (third by Bill James, behind Schimidt (#1) and Brett (#2)) and may well have become number one but for a significant shoulder injury he suffered in 1962. He had 370 HR's before he was 30, prior to that injury.

Study the game's history (reading about it should be enjoyable and not work), which becomes even richer as SABER and analytics advance with time, and learn something! You might even want to watch a little "MLB Now" on your cable network, a show which devotes quite a bit of time to baseball analytics. The latter will have an even greater, not lesser, impact over time.

Regards,

Larry

[Bored5000]

Originally Posted by Leon

Not baseball but...

Jordan rookie

.

I agree that the '86 Fleer Jordan card is the modern '52T Mantle. There are tons of Fleer Jordan cards out there, but there is always a market for that card; PSA alone has graded over 16,000 '86 Fleer Jordan cards.

For modern collectors, the Jordan image on that card is every bit as iconic a post-war card as the '52 Topps Mantle.