Clemente: Inner circle of the elite, or on his way?

[the 'stache]

Jesus H....he didn't have the stats? Why, because he didn't hit 400 home runs? Clemente said that he purposely put hitting for average above going for power because he felt it would help his team more. The Pirates somehow managed to win two World Series with him, in 1960 and 1971, against the '60 Yankees with Mantle, Maris, Ford, Berra, et all, and the '71 Orioles with four 20 game winners, Frank and Brooks Robinson. The guy had incredible power. It's been documented. He's like Ichiro in that regard. And, he played in an aircraft carrier for most of his career home games.

And that sacrificing the glory that comes with home runs for the good of the team should be commended, not dissed. That's the kind of mentality I'd love in a superstar.

The guy was a career .317 hitter. 4 batting titles, and 6 other top 5 finishes. And, he was getting better, as I'd mentioned. Last four seasons, he was a .339 hitter. Clemente could have kept going. Where would his lifetime AVG had ended up? 440 doubles and 240 home runs aren't elite. 166 triples? No player starting their career after WW II has more. Then, there's the guy's defense. Defense is half the game, and he's arguably the best to ever play the position.

Dude had 94.5 career WAR. He only played 18 seasons. If he plays 22 like Mays or Aaron, here are his career stats (and all-time rank) using his seasonal averages for his last four years, reduced by 20% for decline due to age:

10,909 AB
1,658 runs scored
3,493 hits (6th)
512 doubles
196 triples (9th)
285 home runs
1,543 RBI
5,252 total bases (15th)
.320 AVG

122 WAR (12th)

Willie Mays played 22 years, 2,992 games
Hank Aaron played 24 years, 3,298 games
Ty Cobb played 24 years, 3,034 games
Frank Robinson played 21 years 2,808 games
Stan Musial played 22 years, 3,026 games
Carl Yastrzemski played 23 years, 3,308 games

Roberto Clemente 2,433 games

A lot of the guys atop the leader boards on all-time metrics had the benefit of 400-500 more games played. Clemente died. Much of his greatest value as a player came towards the very end of his career. His game wasn't declining.

If Clemente had played 22 years, using the approximate numbers I calculated, here's how he compares against these supposedly "superior players".

WAR:
Mays 156.4
Cobb 151.0
Aaron 143.0
Musial 128.2
Clemente 122.0
Robinson 107.3
Yaz 96.4

Clemente's career WAR is comparable to Stan Musial when the games played are about the same.

Without actually projecting what Clemente might have done, let's break it down to what he did do. Games played per WAR point. (Games/WAR per BBA).

Same players:

Mays 19.13
Cobb 20.09
Aaron 23.06
Musial 23.60
Robinson 26.17
Yaz 34.31
Clemente 25.75

When total contribution is considered, Clemente's rate of WAR is better than Carl Yastrzemski and Frank Robinson. It's quite comparable to Stan Musial's rate.

Expressed another way, their average WAR per 162 games played:

Mays 8.47
Cobb 8.06
Aaron 7.03
Musial 6.86
Robinson 6.19
Yaz 4.72
Clemente 6.29

Some other greats:
Jackie Robinson 22.51 games played per WAR; 7.20 WAR per 162 games played.
Babe Ruth 15.44 G per WAR; 10.49 WAR per 162 games played.
Mel Ott 25.32 G per WAR; 6.40 WAR per 162 games played.

Again, WAR per 162 games played:
Mel Ott 6.40
Clemente 6.29

Mel Ott hit 511 career home runs. He led the league in home runs six times. Drove in 1,860 runs. And Roberto Clemente, who hit less than half his runs has almost the identical WAR/162 games played.


So, tell me again how Clemente wasn't an elite Hall of Famer?

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by the 'stache

Jesus H....he didn't have the stats? Why, because he didn't hit 400 home runs? Clemente said that he purposely put hitting for average above going for power because he felt it would help his team more.

This is just stupid. Sure thing, Roberto, a single to left is more valuable than a home run. Gimme a break. It made no sense then, it makes no sense now.

Originally Posted by the 'stache

So, tell me again how Clemente wasn't an elite Hall of Famer?

Clemente wasn't an "inner circle" HOFer. As in, naming the five or ten best players of all-time - he ain't on the list. Obviously, he was a great player. No one is denying that. But he also wasn't one of the absolute greatest and isn't in that conversation. If you're not in the conversation, you're not inner circle. That's not an insult. Not everybody gets to sit at the table with Ruth, Mays and Mantle.

[btcarfagno]

Originally Posted by Tabe

Not everybody gets to sit at the table with Ruth, Mays and Mantle.

I am thinking Mantle shouldn't be sitting at that table either.

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by btcarfagno

I am thinking Mantle shouldn't be sitting at that table either.

Career 172 OPS+, good for 7th all-time. 6th if you ignore Mike Trout. The other five are Barry Bonds and four guys whose careers started (or ended) before WW2. Led the league in that category 8 times.

Put another way - of all the guys whose careers are over, and were played entirely in the integrated era, Mantle is 2nd in OPS+. To a steroid guy.

Mantle was an incredibly great player who somehow is also underrated.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Tabe

Career 172 OPS+, good for 7th all-time. 6th if you ignore Mike Trout. The other five are Barry Bonds and four guys whose careers started (or ended) before WW2. Led the league in that category 8 times.

Put another way - of all the guys whose careers are over, and were played entirely in the integrated era, Mantle is 2nd in OPS+. To a steroid guy.

Mantle was an incredibly great player who somehow is also underrated.

Mantle, like Bonds, drew a phenomenal number of walks.

[btcarfagno]

Originally Posted by Tabe

Career 172 OPS+, good for 7th all-time. 6th if you ignore Mike Trout. The other five are Barry Bonds and four guys whose careers started (or ended) before WW2. Led the league in that category 8 times.

Put another way - of all the guys whose careers are over, and were played entirely in the integrated era, Mantle is 2nd in OPS+. To a steroid guy.

Mantle was an incredibly great player who somehow is also underrated.

You seem to want to put him "at the table" with the 5 or 10 greatest players to ever play the game. If that is the case, he doesn't get a seat. Sorry. 5 or 10 best post WW2 players? Absolutely. No question. 5 or 10 best ever?

Nope.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by btcarfagno

You seem to want to put him "at the table" with the 5 or 10 greatest players to ever play the game. If that is the case, he doesn't get a seat. Sorry. 5 or 10 best post WW2 players? Absolutely. No question. 5 or 10 best ever?

Nope.

Bill James ranked Mantle 6th.

[btcarfagno]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Bill James ranked Mantle 6th.

How long ago?

Mantle isn't even in the top 10 all time hitters. Let alone when you include pitchers.

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by btcarfagno

You seem to want to put him "at the table" with the 5 or 10 greatest players to ever play the game. If that is the case, he doesn't get a seat. Sorry. 5 or 10 best post WW2 players? Absolutely. No question. 5 or 10 best ever?

Nope.

Absolutely he's at the table with the top 10 players all-time*.

Again, 7th all-time in OPS+, 6th if you only count retired guys. And he played, by far, the most valuable defensive position of the 6. And was good at it.

* - Yes, I am accounting for pitchers.

[Peter_Spaeth]

It only makes sense if you are going to be a failure at going for power.

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by Tabe

This is just stupid. Sure thing, Roberto, a single to left is more valuable than a home run. Gimme a break. It made no sense then, it makes no sense now.

I think it absolutely makes sense, especially looking at the garbage numbers we are seeing around the league as players swing for the fences and set record breaking strike out pacing as they do. Yes, a single to left regularly is better than only 3 and outs with a hr every other game or so. Small ball may be boring to some, but it's a lost art in today's game.

[packs]

Originally Posted by Tabe

This is just stupid. Sure thing, Roberto, a single to left is more valuable than a home run. Gimme a break. It made no sense then, it makes no sense now.

I can't disagree more with this sentiment. All you have to do is look around the league today and count the number of "power hitters" who are sitting on averages under 230 to know there's nothing all that great about hitting a home run once in a while.

[Peter_Spaeth]

You have to love Joey Gallo, 22 HR and .187. Oh and his WAR -- same as Belushi's GPA in Animal House -- 0.0.

[peterose4hof]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

You have to love Joey Gallo, 22 HR and .187. Oh and his WAR -- same as Belushi's GPA in Animal House -- 0.0.

Still better than Daniel Simpson Day's

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

You have to love Joey Gallo, 22 HR and .187. Oh and his WAR -- same as Belushi's GPA in Animal House -- 0.0.

I'll always be Joey's #1 fan. Love the guy. He hit an amazing home run over the light pole in RF at Avista as an 18-year old member of the Spokane Indians. I don't think the ball has landed yet. Just an unreal bomb that no one has even come close to matching in my 20 years of attending games.