"Young Guns" McDavid rookie

[Peter_Spaeth]

Why are these so expensive? PSA 10s seem to sell around $400. I get that he is an amazing young player, but there are over 1400 (!!!!) PSA 10s, including a remarkable 50 on ebay right now, and probably a huge number of Beckett 9.5s as well. Maybe the glut on ebay will result in lower prices?

https://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_fro...david&_sacat=0

[Stampsfan]

I'm kinda with you, so... Maybe because there are more than 1400 McDavid and Oilers fans willing to spend that money. I play hockey with a guy who is not a card collector at all (but a huge Oilers fan), and he ended up buying a few boxes of UD. He picks up a few of them, then asks me what to do with them. I said "Get 'em graded.", so he does. He couldn't spell "PSA" before, had no idea of the grading game.

Now he has a 10 and two 9's, and they are in a frame with a jersey, hanging in his basement.

[Peter_Spaeth]

There are 581 Crosbys in PSA 10, so obviously they printed a ton more McDavids. PWCC has 8 ending on the same night, it's crazy.

[ndmd99]

About a year ago, there was some discussion on another forum (not sure if it's OK to say which one on here) about black label McDavid YG. At that time, they were POP 9. Sales got into the 15-18k range.

Now it's POP 29 (and recent sales show a sharp decline from the max).

That same discussion mentioned in March 2017 that the BGS pop report showed 311 BGS 10 and 3512 BGS 9.5. Current pop report on shows 461 BGS 10 and 5614 BGS 9.5 (granted these are probably inflated some due to re-grade attempt to bump).

PSA 10 from March 2017 had a POP 686. Now it's 1426.

I'd be wary of buying any high grade McDavid YG at the current price.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by ndmd99

About a year ago, there was some discussion on another forum (not sure if it's OK to say which one on here) about black label McDavid YG. At that time, they were POP 9. Sales got into the 15-18k range.

Now it's POP 29 (and recent sales show a sharp decline from the max).

That same discussion mentioned in March 2017 that the BGS pop report showed 311 BGS 10 and 3512 BGS 9.5. Current pop report on shows 461 BGS 10 and 5614 BGS 9.5 (granted these are probably inflated some due to re-grade attempt to bump).

PSA 10 from March 2017 had a POP 686. Now it's 1426.

I'd be wary of buying any high grade McDavid YG at the current price.

OMG that many Becketts lol yeah this is crazy.

[LOTSOS]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

There are 581 Crosbys in PSA 10, so obviously they printed a ton more McDavids. PWCC has 8 ending on the same night, it's crazy.

While I'm sure they printed more I'd bet some of it could be attributed to the increase in awareness of 3rd party graders. A whole lot of McDavids went straight from pack to card saver and then to a TPG.

There were auctions at one point over a year ago where there were lots of 10 for sale on PWCC. I personally sold all the YGs and FWAs I had pulled after his Hart. Dumb? Perhaps, but I'm betting on a slump / injury (ala Sid) in the middle of his career where buying opportunities may emerge should I want to buy one for the PC.

[Throttlesteer]

Resurrecting the thread because I found it intriguing. To put things in perspective, there are already significantly more graded Gem Mint McDavid YGs than 1990 OPC Premier Jagr rookies (BGS+PSA). McDavid is an extraordinary talent, but he may never get close to Jagr's accomplishments. $80 vs. $400. Seems like an easy decision for me.

[irv]

Originally Posted by Throttlesteer

Resurrecting the thread because I found it intriguing. To put things in perspective, there are already significantly more graded Gem Mint McDavid YGs than 1990 OPC Premier Jagr rookies (BGS+PSA). McDavid is an extraordinary talent, but he may never get close to Jagr's accomplishments. $80 vs. $400. Seems like an easy decision for me.

I don't know with a 100% certainty, but I'd bet the Jagr rookie numbers are in the thousands.
I pulled this one straight from a pack and put it in its current holder back when the collecting/junk wax craze was rampant and I know many others did as well.

Not saying there isn't a ton of McDavid rc's available, but, imo, there likely is Jagr's as well, if not more?
Currently PWCC has 5 Jagr 10's up for auction (that I seen) and depending on the prices realized, there will be a whole lot more coming out soon, imo.

But, like you, I also don't get the current prices of current players when so many proven, HOF's cards exist that can be had for less money, but I guess it boils down to who's popular and who isn't?

[Peter_Spaeth]

At one point PWCC had close to 10 McDavid's I think, haven't checked since but I suspect there is a constant large supply.

[irv]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

At one point PWCC had close to 10 McDavid's I think, haven't checked since but I suspect there is a constant large supply.

There are currently 8 Young Guns with a 3 other cards also classified as Young guns, (like this one below) that I am not familiar with.

This is the most expensive one as it's a Pristine copy.
https://www.ebay.com/itm/352405806682?nordt=true

Looks like it will finish over a $1000, imo.

https://www.pwccmarketplace.com/curr...ms_per_page=50

[LOTSOS]

Originally Posted by irv

There are currently 8 Young Guns with a 3 other cards also classified as Young guns, (like this one below) that I am not familiar with.

This is the most expensive one as it's a Pristine copy.
https://www.ebay.com/itm/352405806682?nordt=true

Looks like it will finish over a $1000, imo.

https://www.pwccmarketplace.com/curr...ms_per_page=50

Those are UD Young Gun Canvas. Not an exact variant of the YGs such as foil, exclusive and high gloss. They generally command less than a comparable YGs. As an example a standard McDavid Young guns in BGS pristine has sold from (edit not $20k) $10k to about $5k in the past year. Not sure of the exact bottom number or recent sales because I haven't checked recently. But it has dropped substantially.

Also the pops on a Black Label BGS 10 have increased substantially in the past 6-12 months. Someone on another forum has been tracking pop counts and there was a sudden surge. I'll try and find a link tomorrow. Just another reason why I shy away from buying "11"s.

Kevin

[LOTSOS]

Here is the link:

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showth...ht=McDavid+BGS

Black Label YGs went from a hit rate of 1/285 (first 6,800 cards graded) to 1/61 (last 304 cards graded as of May 2018)

Hmmmmm?

Kevin

[irv]

Originally Posted by LOTSOS

Those are UD Young Gun Canvas. Not an exact variant of the YGs such as foil, exclusive and high gloss. They generally command less than a comparable YGs. As an example a standard McDavid Young guns in BGS pristine has sold from (edit not $20k) $10k to about $5k in the past year. Not sure of the exact bottom number or recent sales because I haven't checked recently. But it has dropped substantially.

Also the pops on a Black Label BGS 10 have increased substantially in the past 6-12 months. Someone on another forum has been tracking pop counts and there was a sudden surge. I'll try and find a link tomorrow. Just another reason why I shy away from buying "11"s.

Kevin

Originally Posted by LOTSOS

Here is the link:

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showth...ht=McDavid+BGS

Black Label YGs went from a hit rate of 1/285 (first 6,800 cards graded) to 1/61 (last 304 cards graded as of May 2018)

Hmmmmm?

Kevin

Very interesting, Kevin.

Thanks for the info.

[smallpaul2002]

McDavids cards are overpriced, His cards are easy to find and are in abundance..They are not as "rare" as collectors think..There are currently 1446 PSA 10's. Keep in mind, most of his cards pulled from packs, are placed in penny sleeves and inserted into a toploader immediately, and either graded or kept in a "mint state".
Gretzky's 79 OPC carries just 2-10's, 79-9's, 685-8's, 956-7's, 913-6's, 653- 5's, 541-4's, 300-3's. 161-2's, and 118-1's. He has a total of just 2635 cards graded 6 and above, and just 4,408 cards in TOTAL graded. (I don't consider the Gretzky rookie card rare either) Back in 1979 kids were not putting their cards in penny sleeves and toploaders..they put them in the spokes of their bikes to make them go faster..

[irv]

Originally Posted by smallpaul2002

McDavids cards are overpriced, His cards are easy to find and are in abundance..They are not as "rare" as collectors think..There are currently 1446 PSA 10's. Keep in mind, most of his cards pulled from packs, are placed in penny sleeves and inserted into a toploader immediately, and either graded or kept in a "mint state".
Gretzky's 79 OPC carries just 2-10's, 79-9's, 685-8's, 956-7's, 913-6's, 653- 5's, 541-4's, 300-3's. 161-2's, and 118-1's. He has a total of just 2635 cards graded 6 and above, and just 4,408 cards in TOTAL graded. (I don't consider the Gretzky rookie card rare either) Back in 1979 kids were not putting their cards in penny sleeves and toploaders..they put them in the spokes of their bikes to make them go faster..

Thanks for the info, Paul.

I understand the hype and how people can get caught up in it, but I am not so sure that won't always be the case when the next best thing comes along?

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by irv

Thanks for the info, Paul.

I understand the hype and how people can get caught up in it, but I am not so sure that won't always be the case when the next best thing comes along?

Always hype for someone. (this is why I have at least a couple 91' Classic sets sitting in the basement still...Lindros is the next Gretzky you know)

[irv]

Originally Posted by JustinD

Always hype for someone. (this is why I have at least a couple 91' Classic sets sitting in the basement still...Lindros is the next Gretzky you know)

You're sitting on a gold mine, Justin!

[WillBBC]

Don't forget about Upper Deck ePack. I believe it started with 2015-16 Series 1 which is when the McDavid was released. A ton of McDavids weren't even packed out but sent directly to BGS from Upper Deck through ePack or COMC.

Granted, like others have said it's a 2015 card that went directly into a holder regardless so it's not a tough 10 by any stretch. But I'd love to see production numbers from Upper Deck on this set at some point! I sold a bunch of these in late 2016 and only held onto the Future Watch. Numbered to 999 and signed on card which is a perfect combination--and SP Authentic is a pedigree type set that I will always enjoy buying!

Also, McDavid is great. Just throwing it out there!

[irv]

Originally Posted by WillBBC

Don't forget about Upper Deck ePack. I believe it started with 2015-16 Series 1 which is when the McDavid was released. A ton of McDavids weren't even packed out but sent directly to BGS from Upper Deck through ePack or COMC.

Granted, like others have said it's a 2015 card that went directly into a holder regardless so it's not a tough 10 by any stretch. But I'd love to see production numbers from Upper Deck on this set at some point! I sold a bunch of these in late 2016 and only held onto the Future Watch. Numbered to 999 and signed on card which is a perfect combination--and SP Authentic is a pedigree type set that I will always enjoy buying!

Also, McDavid is great. Just throwing it out there!

I wondered about those SP cards? Thanks for clearing that up.

And yes, McDavid certainly is an amazing player!