Vintage Card Performance During A Recession

[TUM301]

Originally Posted by packs

Not really sure how anyone can deny the reality of what's coming for the economy. The economy is not a political entity and neither party needs to believe in it for it to be true. Economists are the ones predicting it, not political pundits.

Nothing will be more political, and important, to both parties during the upcoming election cycle, than the economy.

[bobbyw8469]

I will say this. Certain "economist" would love nothing more than the see a recession under the current administrations watch. They are literally salivating at the mouth. Since the Russian narrative fell apart and what not. That is why I take everything the "economist" are saying with a grain of salt. I know MY situation is the best it has been in a long time. All except for my crappy insurance. And that was the previous administrations fault. Not the current one.

[trdcrdkid]

Originally Posted by bobbyw8469

i will say this. Certain "economist" would love nothing more than the see a recession under the current administrations watch. They are literally salivating at the mouth. Since the russian narrative fell apart and what not. That is why i take everything the "economist" are saying with a grain of salt. I know my situation is the best it has been in a long time. All except for my crappy insurance. And that was the previous administrations fault. Not the current one.

no politics please. Thank you.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by trdcrdkid

no politics please. Thank you.

Thanks David.....Infractions and suspensions are going to start being handed out. There is way too much political talk on the board the last few days.

As far as cards in a recession, almost nothing is recession proof.

[Touch'EmAll]

My tinker money is/has been going to stocks last chunk of years. Very few card acquisitions. Stocks have done well past few years. When the economy tide turns, will likely get out of stocks and will buy more nice cards if they decline.

[Exhibitman]

You know, economists have predicted six of the last three recessions. The best indicators are businesses that get cut first when things slow up: construction, public relations, executive recruitment. My wife works in recruiting and her company has seen a marked slowdown in business. But my construction and public relations clients haven’t been hit yet. When I get a spike in collections cases from them it is time to batten down the hatches. Last time around my entire construction and real estate practice went from deals to collections virtually overnight...a year before the sh** hit the fan. Right after the 2007 NSCC. The cycle before that it was an onslaught of collections work against dot com companies and developers that collapsed and stopped paying vendors. The first cycle I experienced was right out of law school. It took the legs out of the construction industry to such an extent that the firm I was with (a construction practice) laid off 75% of its associates.

My research on boxing cards showed a lag between recession and effect of about one year. Prices were good in the months after the debacle but dropped after that. Bottomed out around October 2010.

[packs]

The economy exists as it is regardless. Nothing about the likely recession is steeped in politics. Politicians might want to use the economy to support their rhetoric, but a recession happens whether your political party believes in it or not.

[oldjudge]

Unfortunately, I don't believe what you are saying is true. If politicians say something often enough, true or not, the general public may start to believe it. If the message is there is economic trouble ahead people may alter their consumption patterns which can lead to a slowing economy. Do I expect a recession in 2020-no. Can two successive quarters of negative GDP growth happen (classic definition of a recession), especially with the current trade war, absolutely.

[tulsaboy]

To get this thread back on track a little, I would be interested in opinions on what areas of the hobby might be softest in the next decade or so, recession or not. For instance, do you think that pre-war will take a hit as even boomers age into retirement homes and start to pass away in greater numbers? Do you think that post-war vintage will suffer for the same reason? Do you think unopened is a bubble waiting to burst, but is getting an unreasonable boost right now as the children of the 80's start having more and more discretionary income? Do you think that all of the shiny new stuff will be like 1988 Donruss- way overproduced and ready to plunge? And if a recession hits, are there areas you think are softer than others due to people possibly selling off as much as they can to raise cash?
kevin

[packs]

I have always thought that sometime in the next 10 to 20 years, when most boomers will be in their 70s and 80s you'll see mass sell offs of lifetime collections, which will mean diluting the market and disrupting supply vs demand pricing. If that does actually happen I don't see any way around a significant price drop on cards that are easily found in many collections: T206 Cobbs, Mattys, Johnsons, Youngs, Goudey Ruths, Gehrigs, etc.

The best case scenario for anyone is to try to time that period and sell high. Then buy back in when it hits and end up with better cards for less.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by packs

I have always thought that sometime in the next 10 to 20 years, when most boomers will be in their 70s and 80s you'll see mass sell offs of lifetime collections, which will mean diluting the market and disrupting supply vs demand pricing. If that does actually happen I don't see any way around a significant price drop on cards that are easily found in many collections: T206 Cobbs, Mattys, Johnsons, Youngs, Goudey Ruths, Gehrigs, etc.

The best case scenario for anyone is to try to time that period and sell high. Then buy back in when it hits and end up with better cards for less.

Those cards aren't easily found in collections. What is and is going to take a hit are postwar Topps & Bowman. They are far more plentiful than tobacco and early gum cards. Most baby boomers collect what they did as kids. I think people holding prewar cards of the big names are fine.

[Johnny630]

The least three cards anyone wants sell are Ruth, Mantle, and Jackie.

I would not recommend chasing/buying anything right now..... now is the time to SELL or HOLD......

Remember these points when you have fears. I do not believe we are headed in to a recession.....we have two things against this industry, a looming major scandal, card doctoring/market manipulation along with the constant fear of economic doom and gloom by the media....the media has failed to hit it's target over and over again.... so now they try this.

Never let a crisis go to waste; whether real or fake.

[packs]

Originally Posted by rats60

Those cards aren't easily found in collections. What is and is going to take a hit are postwar Topps & Bowman. They are far more plentiful than tobacco and early gum cards. Most baby boomers collect what they did as kids. I think people holding prewar cards of the big names are fine.

You can buy a T206 Cobb, Matty, Johnson or Young any day you feel like it. Same for the Goudey Ruths and Gehrigs. They're easily found. When the lifetime collections are divvied up and sold these are likely to be the cornerstone cards that go first. But I do agree with you on the postwar drop. Maybe people will still be interested in Topps or Bowman runs but I would think interest will take a serious hit. Who knows, maybe 80s and 90s junk wax becomes huge again.

[NYYFan63]

During a recession, some will have less disposable income to spend on a hobby item. The lower the demand for a product will result in a lower price for that product.