Dave Parker - HOF?

[G1911]

Originally Posted by BobC

Actually, what Belle was able to do, and the hitting ability he had, are not borderline HOF type numbers, they are full-blown HOF worthy type stats. Belle suffered from a career cut short due to injury/health reasons, and thus was not able to reach the typical HOF plateaus you expect from hitters, like 500 HRs or 3,000 hits. If anything, Belle is comparable to Koufax in that during his peak years, there really was no one more feared as a hitter than him. Had he been anywhere near as nice and friendly with fans and the media as Koufax (and never caught using a corked bat), he would be in the HOF.

Actually, no he's absolutely not. Belle is not in the top half, the no brainers that there is a consensus on among the vast majority. Belle is not in this group.

WAR:
Cobb 151.5
Williams 122
Carlton 90.2
Perry 90
Belle 40.1

He had great rate stats and a very, very short career. Just like Dick Allen, he's right on the edge, and his off the field record is helping keep him on the barely out side instead of the barely in side. He played only 10 real seasons, he has none of the milestones, 0 of his counting stats are hall of fame worthy when put into the extreme offensive context of his era.

I think he belongs on the strength of his rate stats, I'd probably vote for him. But let's not allow our narratives to get completely divorced from reality and argue Belle is a top tier HOFer and belongs in the group with Cobb, Williams, Carlton and Perry. He's on the border, the Hall is a total-career based honor and always has been.

[BobC]

Originally Posted by G1911

Actually, no he's absolutely not. Belle is not in the top half, the no brainers that there is a consensus on among the vast majority. Belle is not in this group.

WAR:
Cobb 151.5
Williams 122
Carlton 90.2
Perry 90
Belle 40.1

He had great rate stats and a very, very short career. Just like Dick Allen, he's right on the edge, and his off the field record is helping keep him on the barely out side instead of the barely in side. He played only 10 real seasons, he has none of the milestones, 0 of his counting stats are hall of fame worthy when put into the extreme offensive context of his era.

I think he belongs on the strength of his rate stats, I'd probably vote for him. But let's not allow our narratives to get completely divorced from reality and argue Belle is a top tier HOFer and belongs in the group with Cobb, Williams, Carlton and Perry. He's on the border, the Hall is a total-career based honor and always has been.

I said, he's like Koufax, who also doesn't have a typical HOF length career. WAR has a lot to do with the length of one's career. Belle also was up against the height of the PED era sluggers. I wonder how he would look if the PED users were removed from the equation, or did you forget to take that into consideration? This is why stats like WAR are sometimes ridiculous and not all that accurate. (Same goes with WAR calculated for hitters during years the cheating Astros were getting away with their crap.) So, using WAR to try and prove a point he did not have HOF stats from where I'm sitting is sort of a worthless and useless argument.

For hitters with at least 5,000 plate appearances, his .564 slugging percentage puts him at the 12th highest all-time. And regardless of the number of plate appearances, he's still at 16th all-time.

During Belle's 7 peak years from 1993-99 his average annual stat line was - .308/.391/.602 with 41 HRs and 127 RBIs. And those numbers were with the shortened 1994 and 1995 seasons.

He had over 100 RBIs in 9 straight seasons, led the league/majors multiple times in various different offensive categories, and is 27th all-time on the career OPS list at .933.

He is also the only player in MLB history to hit 50 homers and 50 doubles in the same season. And he also is the first player in MLB history to get paid $10M for a season.

If he wasn't known as such a total jerk, he'd be in the HOF already. I believe it was Buster Olney who once wrote/said, "It was taken as fact in baseball circles that Albert Belle was nuts".

[cannonballsun]

I'm a native of Louisiana. Oddly enough, you almost never hear people around here talk about Albert Belle. I guess it has to do with all the personality issues.
One of the big problems with WAR is that it is greatly affected by the length of career. One of my problems with the Hall of Fame is that it is often the Hall of the Guy who was very good for a long time, and was never really great, but he picked up a lot of stats because he played a really long time. Meanwhile, a greater player who played a shorter time doesn't make it. I think the Hall should be about great players, as much as possible.
Koufax is a good case in point, but he was so great (even though it was for a short time) he had to get in. A guy who I would mention as a great player, but for a shorter time, is Ron Guidry. He has a career winning percentage of 65%. That is great.

[cannonballsun]

I don't mean to hijack this thread.

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by G1911

Actually, no he's absolutely not. Belle is not in the top half, the no brainers that there is a consensus on among the vast majority. Belle is not in this group.

WAR:
Cobb 151.5
Williams 122
Carlton 90.2
Perry 90
Belle 40.1

He had great rate stats and a very, very short career. Just like Dick Allen, he's right on the edge, and his off the field record is helping keep him on the barely out side instead of the barely in side. He played only 10 real seasons, he has none of the milestones, 0 of his counting stats are hall of fame worthy when put into the extreme offensive context of his era.

Sandy Koufax has none of the milestones. Addie Joss has none of the milestones. Kirby Puckett has none of the milestones.

The HOF asks for 10 seasons. Belle played 10 full ones and parts of 2 others. in 1995, Belle had 103 extra-base hits, the first player in 47 years to top 100 XBH in a single season. And he did it in a shortened season. 3 years later, he nearly did it again with 99. His numbers are *ridiculous*. Belle was outstanding or better in 9 of his 10 full seasons and was still good (OPS+ of 109) his final year limping around with a retirement-inducing injury.

If the argument is that his character should keep him out - but somehow not Ty Cobb (who went into the stands and beat up a fan) or Cap Anson or any of the other myriad bad characters in MLB history - so be it.

If the argument is that he cheated and that should keep him out - but not Gaylord Perry or Tony LaRussa (who benefitted from cheaters) - so be it.

But there's no argument that he wasn't good enough as a player other than "well, gee, he didn't play long enough because of a career-ending injury". And people only had that against him because they don't like him, as opposed to a guy like Sandy Koufax or Kirby Puckett. And, in Puckett's case, they just ignore the multiple negative incidents involving him because, hey, he smiled a lot on the field.

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by G1911

Actually, no he's absolutely not. Belle is not in the top half, the no brainers that there is a consensus on among the vast majority. Belle is not in this group.

WAR:
Cobb 151.5
Williams 122
Carlton 90.2
Perry 90
Belle 40.1

He had great rate stats and a very, very short career. Just like Dick Allen, he's right on the edge, and his off the field record is helping keep him on the barely out side instead of the barely in side. He played only 10 real seasons, he has none of the milestones, 0 of his counting stats are hall of fame worthy when put into the extreme offensive context of his era.

Sandy Koufax has none of the milestones. Addie Joss has none of the milestones. Kirby Puckett has none of the milestones.

The HOF asks for 10 seasons. Belle played 10 full ones and parts of 2 others. in 1995, Belle had 103 extra-base hits, the first player in 47 years to top 100 XBH in a single season. And he did it in a shortened season. 3 years later, he nearly did it again with 99. His numbers are *ridiculous*. Belle was outstanding or better in 9 of his 10 full seasons and was still good (OPS+ of 109) his final year limping around with a retirement-inducing injury.

If the argument is that his character should keep him out - but somehow not Ty Cobb (who went into the stands and beat up a fan) or Cap Anson or any of the other myriad bad characters in MLB history - so be it.

If the argument is that he cheated and that should keep him out - but not Gaylord Perry or Tony LaRussa (who benefitted from cheaters) - so be it.

But there's no argument that he wasn't good enough as a player other than "well, gee, he didn't play long enough because of a career-ending injury". And people only had that against him because they don't like him, as opposed to a guy like Sandy Koufax or Kirby Puckett. And, in Puckett's case, they just ignore the multiple negative incidents involving him because, hey, he smiled a lot on the field.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Tabe

Sandy Koufax has none of the milestones. Addie Joss has none of the milestones. Kirby Puckett has none of the milestones.

The HOF asks for 10 seasons. Belle played 10 full ones and parts of 2 others. in 1995, Belle had 103 extra-base hits, the first player in 47 years to top 100 XBH in a single season. And he did it in a shortened season. 3 years later, he nearly did it again with 99. His numbers are *ridiculous*. Belle was outstanding or better in 9 of his 10 full seasons and was still good (OPS+ of 109) his final year limping around with a retirement-inducing injury.

If the argument is that his character should keep him out - but somehow not Ty Cobb (who went into the stands and beat up a fan) or Cap Anson or any of the other myriad bad characters in MLB history - so be it.

If the argument is that he cheated and that should keep him out - but not Gaylord Perry or Tony LaRussa (who benefitted from cheaters) - so be it.

But there's no argument that he wasn't good enough as a player other than "well, gee, he didn't play long enough because of a career-ending injury". And people only had that against him because they don't like him, as opposed to a guy like Sandy Koufax or Kirby Puckett. And, in Puckett's case, they just ignore the multiple negative incidents involving him because, hey, he smiled a lot on the field.

See post 208 where I said I think he should be in. He is very clearly not in the top group of no brainers though; like the 4 named players who all produced more than double his value. Puckett and Joss are also both low end players and Puckett is often criticized as an electee on here. Koufax possesses some magical charm over a large segment of baseball fandom that makes rational analysis all but impossible (see the 10,000 mega thread). Arguing that he belongs alongside the bottom of the hall like Puckett and Joss is exactly where I ranked him.

I never endorsed the view that his personal conduct SHOULD keep him out; I said it IS a factor in him being out. There are many things that are true that I do not think should be true; being cognizant of the later is not to endorse the former.

[shagrotn77]

If Albert Belle’s career was measured purely on stats, he would have been a first-ballot HOFer. No doubt.

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by G1911

See post 208 where I said I think he should be in. He is very clearly not in the top group of no brainers though; like the 4 named players who all produced more than double his value.

Those four weren't named because they were no-brainers - they were named because the possessed the same "character issues" for which Belle is penalized by some.

Originally Posted by G1911

Puckett and Joss are also both low end players and Puckett is often criticized as an electee on here. Koufax possesses some magical charm over a large segment of baseball fandom that makes rational analysis all but impossible (see the 10,000 mega thread). Arguing that he belongs alongside the bottom of the hall like Puckett and Joss is exactly where I ranked him.

Obviously Belle would be not an inner circle HOFer if he were elected. His shortened career eliminates that. Having said that, his numbers when he was playing ARE inner circle elite - when you average more homers and as many RBI per 162 games as Ted Williams, while playing your entire career in an integrated league with flamethrower relievers, you ARE elite.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Tabe

Those four weren't named because they were no-brainers - they were named because the possessed the same "character issues" for which Belle is penalized by some.

Obviously Belle would be not an inner circle HOFer if he were elected. His shortened career eliminates that. Having said that, his numbers when he was playing ARE inner circle elite - when you average more homers and as many RBI per 162 games as Ted Williams, while playing your entire career in an integrated league with flamethrower relievers, you ARE elite.

I am well aware they weren't named because they were no brainers. I never said that was why they were named. See post 205 again. What I said was that top-tier guys like Carlton, Perry, Cobb and Ted Williams who are far and away obviously hall of famers, who are not kept out for being unlikable or throwing a spitball. Marginal hall of famers may or may not be kept out, Dick Allen and Albert Belle are marginal hall of famers close to the border. It is hard to prove this is why they are out.

Belle's issues are certainly more severe than being unpopular with the press (Carlton, Williams) or throwing a spitball (Perry). Belle's problems include similar things like a corked bat and being a surly dick, but he also was convicted of stalking a woman, charged with indecent exposure, and caught a case for assaulting a child.

As for your 2nd paragraph, it seems we agree and there's nothing to debate? I wouldn't compare raw values in the 90's AL to raw values in the 40's and 50's, but it doesn't seem to change the calculation much.