Where is the market?...is a "crash" coming

[ALR-bishop]

Timing the market

[theshowandme]

See last weeks LOTG and this weeks REA winners threads…

Prices are strong on the good stuff

[nolemmings]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

A crash is definitely coming. I am 100 percent certain. My stars, Ouija board, palm reading, tea leaves, and tarot cards are all in perfect alignment. My local gypsy concurs as well.

You're right. I heard it once from a dealer in 1999 whose name I can't remember and maybe never knew but he would have no reason to lie. LOL LOL LOL LOL

[Fred]

Originally Posted by raulus

It's like a train wreck. We can't not watch!

Plus we all want our part in the conversation, so not responding is not really a viable option.

So instead, we get to debate whether the whole premise of the debate is worthy of debate.

And complain, of course. Plus complain about the complaining.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by ejharrington

I see no evidence at all that there is a bear market in anything that I collect. To the contrary, prices keep going up.

It certainly feels like the go-go days are still running on everything I want for my collection. Witness the solid bidding war I got into last night (and lost) on the PSA 9 Mays 1954 Stahl Meyer. I finally dropped out at $93k. (link: https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com...?itemid=162374)

On the other hand, the PSA 7 Mantle that sold last night went for $246K, here:

https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com...?itemid=160751

It looks like the exact same card went for $336K about 12 months ago:

https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com...?itemid=125688

So a drop of $90K over the last 12 months. Good for a ~27% decline. We can debate whether that's a crash, a correction, or just someone overpaid in December 2022. But for some things the prices seem to be coming down.

[hcv123]

Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry

Well said. I have to admit that I'm skeptical of all claims that "the good stuff (whatever that means) will never go down in value". Every collector has to know that these little pieces of cardboard have essentially zero intrinsic value, right?

Right. Just like coins, comic books, paintings, sculptures, and a multitude of other antiques and collectibles!

[bnorth]

Just like the doomsday preppers say "the crash is coming". Get prepared now by selling all your cards and buying gold and silver the currency of the future. I have been predicting this crash for decades and someday I will be correct.

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by hcv123

Right. Just like coins, comic books, paintings, sculptures, and a multitude of other antiques and collectibles!

Howard, thanks for the reply. Point taken, although some coins and stamps could still have some utility value if they lost their value as collectibles.

Looks like you've been in the hobby for some time–what do you think about the belief some have that a certain "class" of cards will never go down in value? With a van Gogh or a Rodin, such seems more plausible than with a mass-produced item like a baseball card.

[oldschool73]

Originally Posted by butchie_t

Better yet, don't ask a question that will never have an answer and post it on a board for all to answer.

Because you will get an answer, just not an answer to an unanswerable question.

Butch Turner

The internet is full of places you can add no value. Enjoy.

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by bnorth

Just like the doomsday preppers say "the crash is coming". Get prepared now by selling all your cards and buying gold and silver the currency of the future. I have been predicting this crash for decades and someday I will be correct.

But WHAT will they accept as tolls on the roads? I don't That was ever discussed

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by oldschool73

The internet is full of places you can add no value. Enjoy.

But the fun is seeing other pontificate how much they "know" about the market, no matter how disconnected they are with reality, the actual market, and have heated interests in keeping prices going!

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by bnorth

Just like the doomsday preppers say "the crash is coming". Get prepared now by selling all your cards and buying gold and silver the currency of the future. I have been predicting this crash for decades and someday I will be correct.

Right, as was posted here in recent memory, silver we be useful to pay gangs of farmers who take over the roads.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Republicaninmass

But WHAT will they accept as tolls on the roads? I don't That was ever discussed

Well I learned the roads will be manned by Indians who accept silver for passage in the water cooler section. Educational thread that was!

[RCMcKenzie]

I thought y'all said the farmers are going to accept 51 Bowman commons for the footpath toll.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by G1911

Well I learned the roads will be manned by Indians who accept silver for passage in the water cooler section. Educational thread that was!

Nope, farmers, here's the quote.

The book I read used silver for traveling purposes. The scenario is farmers turn portions of roads into toll roads. Silver would be used to pay toll fees. I live in WA. If something happened here, I would be close enough to try to make it to Canada.

[butchie_t]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Nope, farmers, here's the quote.

The book I read used silver for traveling purposes. The scenario is farmers turn portions of roads into toll roads. Silver would be used to pay toll fees. I live in WA. If something happened here, I would be close enough to try to make it to Canada.

And someone on the way to Canada would inevitably ask you what the futures of silver looked like. chortle.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Nope, farmers, here's the quote.

The book I read used silver for traveling purposes. The scenario is farmers turn portions of roads into toll roads. Silver would be used to pay toll fees. I live in WA. If something happened here, I would be close enough to try to make it to Canada.

Nope. It is a sign of how productive I am being today that I checked the thread.

#57: "If a collective of farmers want to fill that power vacuum, so be it. But in Eastern WA, there are enough small highways to get to Canada. We have a single lane highway that runs all the way from Spokane to Nelson, BC. That's the road I would need to take to flee. It would be controlled by someone; possibly even a Native American tribe because it runs through their reservation."

Both were used in the thread, and then you and I were both making fun of both options according to the transcript. Just have to get to page 2.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by G1911

Nope. It is a sign of how productive I am being today that I checked the thread.

#57: "If a collective of farmers want to fill that power vacuum, so be it. But in Eastern WA, there are enough small highways to get to Canada. We have a single lane highway that runs all the way from Spokane to Nelson, BC. That's the road I would need to take to flee. It would be controlled by someone; possibly even a Native American tribe because it runs through their reservation."

Both were used in the thread, and then you and I were both making fun of both options according to the transcript. Just have to get to page 2.

LOL too funny. Filling that power vacuum indeed.

[bbcard1]

I could have gotten better deals on two of the three most expensive cards I bought this year by waiting...1953T Robinson, 1954 T Kaline, but probably not the 1948 L Musial. But I don't really feel bad about any of the purchases. All cards I had wanted for a while and now I have them.

[Cory]

From PWCC. Just came across this thought it was interesting -

https://www.pwccmarketplace.com/mark...&direction=asc

Had been hoping that there was a T206 500 index, or something similar, or even thought of creating one to just get an idea of what prices are doing/have done. This is broader, but it does have a handful of t206 cards included in the index.

[Peter_Spaeth]

No index started by Brent has ever gone down. Good to see we're WAY up since the pandemic peak if I am reading it right. To infinity and beyond!!

[todeen]

Originally Posted by bnorth

Just like the doomsday preppers say "the crash is coming". Get prepared now by selling all your cards and buying gold and silver the currency of the future. I have been predicting this crash for decades and someday I will be correct.

Originally Posted by Republicaninmass

But WHAT will they accept as tolls on the roads? I don't That was ever discussed

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Right, as was posted here in recent memory, silver we be useful to pay gangs of farmers who take over the roads.

Originally Posted by G1911

Well I learned the roads will be manned by Indians who accept silver for passage in the water cooler section. Educational thread that was!

Originally Posted by butchie_t

And someone on the way to Canada would inevitably ask you what the futures of silver looked like. chortle.

I'm glad I could teach you all something. We all have our different conspiracies we hold to. I still believe that economic/political uncertainty lingers. Another Trump presidency would make 50% of the country go absolutely bonkers. While I am rooting for Nikki Haley, The Don is running laps around all the other competitors for GOP candidate.

Also, to answer the OP: It's hard to debate a downturn in cards for modern between November and February, which generally are the doldrums. Come March, modern cards will warm up again and people will forget the winter blues.

[Republicaninmass]

Jesus, if THAT hogwash passes as "teaching", I can only imagine what The kids are learning


Save our souls

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[G1911]

Originally Posted by todeen

I'm glad I could teach you all something. We all have our different conspiracies we hold to. I still believe that economic/political uncertainty lingers. Another Trump presidency would make 50% of the country go absolutely bonkers. While I am rooting for Nikki Haley, The Don is running laps around all the other competitors for GOP candidate.

Also, to answer the OP: It's hard to debate a downturn in cards for modern between November and February, which generally are the doldrums. Come March, modern cards will warm up again and people will forget the winter blues.

I think most of us believe there is political and economic uncertainty and that half the country goes ape when they hear evil orange man’s name. I fail to see how this means Native Americans become the muscle and adopt a silver based travel system, as did everyone else.

I am rooting for whichever candidate my favored propaganda mill or party tells me is the solution.

[griffon512]

Conclusions on pricing trends can't be drawn from one auction, but the results last night reinforce that grade continues to be less and less relevant over time to pricing. Premiums for strong centering/color/registration and discounts for poor centering/color/registration are increasing. There is scarcity of the former for many cards, even if the pop is high.

Some comparisons:
https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com...?itemid=161130

https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com...?itemid=161129

https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com...?itemid=164229

https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com...?itemid=164248

And a couple of other examples of premiums strong centering/color/registration is getting versus average comps:

https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com...?itemid=161266

https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com...?itemid=161953


There hasn't been any weakness in pricing for really nice examples of in-demand cards or sets. Those examples have been and will continue to be less sensitive to any market corrections that are inevitable over time, especially after huge runs.

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by todeen

I'm glad I could teach you all something. We all have our different conspiracies we hold to. I still believe that economic/political uncertainty lingers. Another Trump presidency would make 50% of the country go absolutely bonkers. While I am rooting for Nikki Haley, The Don is running laps around all the other competitors for GOP candidate.

Also, to answer the OP: It's hard to debate a downturn in cards for modern between November and February, which generally are the doldrums. Come March, modern cards will warm up again and people will forget the winter blues.

I had forgotten about your post. I have a sad hobby of binge watching reality TV because I find it as funny if not funnier than stand up. My latest was about preppers being scored on how ready they are. It was so beyond hilarious especially knowing there are people who actually take these silly shows seriously.

The card crash is near!!! Sell now and invest in toilet paper because unlike silver and gold it will be needed.

[butchie_t]

Originally Posted by bnorth

I had forgotten about your post. I have a sad hobby of binge watching reality TV because I find it as funny if not funnier than stand up. My latest was about preppers being scored on how ready they are. It was so beyond hilarious especially knowing there are people who actually take these silly shows seriously.

The card crash is near!!! Sell now and invest in toilet paper because unlike silver and gold it will be needed.

"depends"

Snort, I love squeezing that into a conversation about TP any time I can get the chance.

B.T.

[bcbgcbrcb]

Another way to look at specific key cards from the vintage market is to look at how many examples of each card that appeared in the just concluded REA auction. For example, I believe there was only 1 Ted Williams RC, meaning to me that at today's market value, this is not an attractive card to move with the assumption having to be that there will be more room for growth on that one in the future. Same can be said for the 51 Bowman Mantle and Mays rookies, of which I believe there were 3 of each in REA as compared to summer of 2021 where there were probably around 10 of each, if my memory is correct. Compare this to the dozen or more T206 Ty Cobbs in REA, meaning to me that this card has already peaked in value at this point, at least for the foreseeable future, and many are looking to sell now to take advantage of what might be a higher price as compared to a year from now. I believe there is some merit to this kind of stuff. Watch the upcoming major auctions and look for cards that are not being offered regularly. Those are probably the cards to buy right now while staying away from those that are being offered in multiples at the same time, whether in same or different auctions.

[todeen]

Originally Posted by Republicaninmass

Jesus, if THAT hogwash passes as "teaching", I can only imagine what The kids are learning


Save our souls

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"Teaching" was tongue in cheek, sir. BNorth seems to have understood. I guess it "depends" on whether you want to join us.



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[butchie_t]

Originally Posted by todeen

"teaching" was tongue in cheek, sir. Bnorth seems to have understood. I guess it "depends" on whether you want to join us.



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nice!!

[Mark17]

Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry

Every collector has to know that these little pieces of cardboard have essentially zero intrinsic value, right?

This is precisely why I collect GU. You can spend $100k on an old baseball card, but when the world collapses, what have you got? However, in a pinch, you can burn vintage GU bats as firewood, and sew together GU flannels to make blankets, and thus keep yourself warm in winter.

GU = intrinsic value. Cards, not so much.

[Bigdaddy]

Originally Posted by Mark17

This is precisely why I collect GU. You can spend $100k on an old baseball card, but when the world collapses, what have you got? However, in a pinch, you can burn vintage GU bats as firewood, and sew together GU flannels to make blankets, and thus keep yourself warm in winter.

GU = intrinsic value. Cards, not so much.

Au Contraire, Mon Frere, you most certainly can burn cards as well as bats. And the more vintager, the better. The shiny stuff, not so much.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Bigdaddy

Au Contraire, Mon Frere, you most certainly burn cards as well as bats. And the more vintager, the better. The shiny stuff, not so much.

The shiny stuff is toxic, vintage, less so. Imagine inhaling a chrome green prizm stained glass atomic refractor.

[Mark17]

Originally Posted by Bigdaddy

Au Contraire, Mon Frere, you most certainly burn cards as well as bats. And the more vintager, the better. The shiny stuff, not so much.

To get the most btu for the buck, 1987-1989 Topps vending cases would be the best investment.

[butchie_t]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

The shiny stuff is toxic, vintage, less so. Imagine inhaling a chrome green prizm stained glass atomic refractor.

Yeah but, how do you keep it lit????

[Vintageclout]

Pricing for scarce pre-war immortals such as Ruth, Cobb, Wagner, Gehrig, Jackson, etc. are absolutely solid. As one example, Joe Jackson boldly proved that in REA last night with two record-setting rookie card sales, and the $117K price tag for his ever-elusive M101-6 issue. Don't see any retreat on those numbers in the near future. Regarding post-WWII cards, special attention is being placed on eye appeal for the grade (especially centering), with standout aesthetics as well as overall scarcity still driving strong premiums. Of course, this applies to the white whale players such as Mantle, Jackie, Mays, Aaron, Clemente, Koufax, Williams, etc. "So-so" visual appeal cards are experiencing value declines (especially for second-tier Hall of Famers), and as predicted by many, modern cards are taking a beating. Stick with baseball's "best of the best" all-timers, and you cannot go wrong.

[Shoeless Moe]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

The shiny stuff is toxic, vintage, less so. Imagine inhaling a chrome green prizm stained glass atomic refractor.

T206 cards are cards made with lead paint so I think its a push.

[MACollector]

I thought the 49 Bowman Robinsons in REA was interesting speaking to the earlier point of people buying the card not the grade. A more recently graded 7.5 went for the same price as an 8 that went for a lot less than that same exact card sold for. $21k. Both were down from last sale even the 7.5. That being said there were 6 other copies for sale too. The 7.5 does have better eye appeal than the 8 for sure.

[grandslamcardscria]

Deals galore. Just a little market correction, no big deal.




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[jsfriedm]

Not sure how this fits into the story, but here is one high-grade vintage "immortal" that went shockingly low compared to even lower grade examples in recent years. Behold, a PSA 6 T205 Walter Johnson in REA (Although, to be fair, I have a hard time imagining that that top border was not trimmed, which is why I didn't bid on it - and maybe I wasn't the only one):

https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com...?itemid=161510

But, for comparison, and there were much higher examples I could have chosen over the last couple of years, here is a PSA 4.5 that sold in Memory Lane just three months ago for more:

https://memorylaneinc.com/site/bids/...e?itemid=78191

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by jsfriedm

Not sure how this fits into the story, but here is one high-grade vintage "immortal" that went shockingly low compared to even lower grade examples in recent years. Behold, a PSA 6 T205 Walter Johnson in REA (Although, to be fair, I have a hard time imagining that that top border was not trimmed, which is why I didn't bid on it - and maybe I wasn't the only one):

https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com...?itemid=161510

But, for comparison, and there were much higher examples I could have chosen over the last couple of years, here is a PSA 4.5 that sold in Memory Lane just three months ago for more:

https://memorylaneinc.com/site/bids/...e?itemid=78191

Yeah even if not trimmed, not a 6.

[Fred]

Originally Posted by jsfriedm

Not sure how this fits into the story, but here is one high-grade vintage "immortal" that went shockingly low compared to even lower grade examples in recent years. Behold, a PSA 6 T205 Walter Johnson in REA (Although, to be fair, I have a hard time imagining that that top border was not trimmed, which is why I didn't bid on it - and maybe I wasn't the only one):

https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com...?itemid=161510

But, for comparison, and there were much higher examples I could have chosen over the last couple of years, here is a PSA 4.5 that sold in Memory Lane just three months ago for more:

https://memorylaneinc.com/site/bids/...e?itemid=78191

Is it just me or is it an optical illusion that the PSA6 T205 WaJo shows signs of trimming on the upper left corner. My eye sight must be getting worse... That just looks horrible. Makes me want to find out who the submitter for the card was, but we'll never know.

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by Fred

Is it just me or is it an optical illusion that the PSA6 T205 WaJo shows signs of trimming on the upper left corner. My eye sight must be getting worse... That just looks horrible. Makes me want to find out who the submitter for the card was, but we'll never know.

i dont care for the top edge

[Yoda]

I would like to believe that the majority of Net54 members love baseball and its history and collect prewar to remind us of "when it was a game." At heart we are collectors who love our cards but, of course, keep a close eye on values. And when it behooves us, we will sell to upgrade or put the money into something else vintage.
Our board and a few like it are a financial prop against a collapse of prewar and AH's, like REA, LOTG and Heritage, benefit enormously for our support of prewar and some of our members, more well-heeled than others, are able to fork over significant sums for top items. That's just capitalism.

[Exhibitman]

Why does the market have to "crash"? If past performance is any indication of behavior, what is most likely to crash is level of activity on scarce and rare vintage cards. A lot of would-be sellers elect to sit it out for a while when prices level off or decline. If you look at price data for certain cards, there are often gaps of years with none sold, followed by multiple sales in a relatively short amount of time.

What is the "market" anyway? There is a vast difference between the market for a 1914 Ruth Baltimore News card, a 1933 Goudey Ruth card, and an Ohtani sparkly signed card. The latter two are commodities: you can get one any day of the week if you have the money. The Ruth is a true rarity. Commodity cards are more volatile, IMO, because the owners include many who make their livings selling cards and who need to keep the cash flow going. They can only differentiate their goods by price. A rarity, you can set the price and anyone who wants it has to pay it.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Why does the market have to "crash"? If past performance is any indication of behavior, what is most likely to crash is level of activity on scarce and rare vintage cards. A lot of would-be sellers elect to sit it out for a while when prices level off or decline. If you look at price data for certain cards, there are often gaps of years with none sold, followed by multiple sales in a relatively short amount of time.

What is the "market" anyway? There is a vast difference between the market for a 1914 Ruth Baltimore News card, a 1933 Goudey Ruth card, and an Ohtani sparkly signed card. The latter two are commodities: you can get one any day of the week if you have the money. The Ruth is a true rarity. Commodity cards are more volatile, IMO, because the owners include many who make their livings selling cards and who need to keep the cash flow going. They can only differentiate their goods by price. A rarity, you can set the price and anyone who wants it has to pay it.

Obviously there's no requirement that the market has to crash.

I do think when you have a 100-300% runup in prices over a short window, the mind tends to wander in the direction of whether that's really sustainable, or whether we might be in for a pullback of 30-50% or more, depending on your definition of crash.

The rest of your points are certainly taken. At the same time, anyone sitting on the sidelines and refusing to sell if prices decline will have to outlast a whole host of other potential stressors that might force an untimely liquidation. Anything from financial pressure to divorce to demise are all factors that come into play. And if we're being honest, as a group in the aggregate, we probably have our fair share (and then some) of those stressors given our personal demographics.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by BabyRuth

Just some food for thought:

1968 Topps 3-D Uncut sheet with Clemente and 2 proof cards


Summer 2023 REA Lot#1402 sold for $29,400

Fall 2023 REA Lot#2149 hi bid $13,000 - not sold reserve not met

Looks like the exact same sheet, with the exact same description for both auctions.

What a difference 3 months make!!!

Or maybe the first sale wasn't completed and so the price was spurious, and the second sale is the actual market price.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

Or maybe the first sale wasn't completed and so the price was spurious, and the second sale is the actual market price.

Could be!

Of course, it seems like people are willing to accept high sales as real when they want to suggest that the market is going up. When it’s coming back down, then the high sale was never real, so it should be ignored!

[Johnny630]

[QUOTE=Aquarian Sports Cards;2394538]Or maybe the first sale wasn't completed and so the price was spurious, and the second sale is the actual market price.[/QUOTE

BINGO

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by raulus

Could be!

Of course, it seems like people are willing to accept high sales as real when they want to suggest that the market is going up. When it’s coming back down, then the high sale was never real, so it should be ignored!

Yep. Spin the data to fit the thesis.