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#151
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"The large print giveth and the small print taketh away."- Tom Waits |
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ok, lots to go through here so give me second to break it all down: A-yes ,Bumgarner's performance is good, but claiming he is wired differently is not backed up by evidence of a large enough sample size to be legitimate. You can rant about it all you want, but this is a fact. Stop looking at things through fan colored glasses and look at it scientifically B- clutch situations happen certainly, but clutch as a skill possessed by some player's and not other's does not. This is a fact based upon thousands of pieces of data. People point to Jeter or Papi or any other player, but this is confirmation bias and recency bias. You look at their numbers in the postseason and in high leverage situations, it ends up right around their career numbers. This has been endlessly analyzed and found to be true. Certain player's being "clutch" is a myth. as sure a myth as Bigfoot or Chupacabras. C-Matt Duffy thing: anecdotes, while nice, are not evidence (nor is the plural of anecdote, evidence) team chemistry exists, but there is no evidence that it is required to perform well as too many teams who had player's who hated each other have done well (late 70's Yankees, 2000's Giants) Plus, when you consider how much expanded playoffs has increased the level of randomness into the results, I would say that chemistry means less now than ever before D-the thing with fans is, we like to believe stuff is true about player's we like/hate , the media knows this and thus these myths get created about players that aren't true like "he's clutch" or "he's not" or "he's a postseason monster"....etc this is called CONFIRMATION BIAS, and it drives 99% of the bad information out there in sports land. Combine that with RECENCY BIAS (the idea that a person feels recent events are signals of a greater effect that must be changed, like when people say 'player ABC isn't hitting move him in the order" after 4 games. In the regular season you would never do this. But people get kinda silly in the playoffs. E- I find it amusing that so many people these days have become anti-intellectual to the point where they refuse to acknowledge new data in favor of old beliefs. (not saying you in particular, but some on this board surely) Time moves on, better information comes with it, better methods, better tools, better data. That's all modern metrics are They take the same game and dig inside the old stats to create new and better one's that increase our understanding of it! it isn't just a bunch of nerds like so many a-holes like to say. EVERY SINGLE TEAM in baseball is doing this to one level or another. Why? Because it works, and to ignore it is to be left behind.
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"The large print giveth and the small print taketh away."- Tom Waits |
#153
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In other words, wouldn't debating something that is proven be the height of pointlessness? |
#154
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The point is not having blind reliance on ANY metrics, but knowing when to ignore or go against those metrics. It isn't as much intangibles or gut instinct as it is to considering circumstances that aren't measured by said metric. It is more akin to having too many variables that metrics can't take into account in any given situation. Feel free to provide any metric and situation, and I can easily provide a dozen variables that would affect a manager's decision to go against the *ahem* proven metric. |
#155
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My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/ He is available to do custom drawings in graphite, charcoal and other media. He also sells some of his works as note cards/greeting cards on Etsy under JamesSpaethArt. |
#156
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__________________
My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/ He is available to do custom drawings in graphite, charcoal and other media. He also sells some of his works as note cards/greeting cards on Etsy under JamesSpaethArt. |
#157
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Heyward is useless to the Cubs.
This guy kills more rally's at the plate than preventing opponent runs.
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My new found obsession the t206! |
#158
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To Taylor's point there are any number of circumstances that can and should also play into a manager/coach's decision making beyond just statistics. These may be "in game" related, as in maybe a SP has great numbers vs a hitter, but has gone 8+, walked the guy before and you can tell his mechanics are breaking down as he tires. There could also be a near infinite number or personal considerations... maybe you find out the guy was out partying the night before, or is in the middle of a nasty divorce, or any number of other things that may distract him. Zach Grienke was DL'd due to social anxiety. If you knew this, wouldn't you at least consider it before throwing a guy into a high leverage situation, even if all past statistics show you should? Maybe the stats win out in your thought process, but I'd prefer to consider everything, even if its not all empirical. Bravos4ever-- to your point C about clutch players, I completely disagree. I had even used Jeter as an example of a guy whose post season stats were very similar to his regular but this is in no way universal in baseball. And frankly, I think maintaining your level of play in high pressure situations against the best either league has to offer is "clutch" in its own right. There are also clearly players whose post seasons have far exceeded their regular season performance, prime example- Reggie Jackson (looking at WS stats). There are also players who consistently floundered in the postseason. With exception of an incredible 2002, Barry Bonds is a guy who comes to mind as an example MVP/HOF caliber of a guy who repeatedly did not perform in the postseason. I think you would have to agree that confidence in any given moment (AB, executing a pitch, etc) is really important to your own performance (guessing you played some ball at some level, and hopefully can relate). Clearly Reggie felt comfortable and confident in the WS, and am sure his repeated high performance further reinforced this throughout his career (mentioned 2010, 2012, 2014 Giants pitchers fall into this category too). Bonds on the other hand failed to deliver in October (90, 91, 92, 97, 2000) and would guess his repeated under performance ate at him, which in turn may have affected his play. These guys are not robots, are not fully defined by their stats, and will respond to different situations in all kinds of different ways. |
#159
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Yeah, that's why the Braves were willing to let him go. His stance has always looked very uncomfortable. I hope he can spend the off-season re-inventing his approach. He's built just like Kris Bryant...perhaps he can try that. With that same kind of 'leverage' (as a tall player), he should be launching!
__________________
. "A life is not important except in the impact it has on others lives" - Jackie Robinson “If you have a chance to make life better for others and fail to do so, you are wasting your time on this earth.”- Roberto Clemente Last edited by clydepepper; 10-21-2016 at 01:53 AM. |
#160
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debates on sports
Humans crave certainty, predictability, and rationality. Evidenced lots of places (religion, economic theory, physics, conspiracy theories like that Oswald couldn't have been a lone gunman, because it bespeaks randomness and disproportionality for a nobody to kill the leader of the free world).
But in baseball, especially short series, there is: 1) Underlying skill 2) Mental aspect ("clutch" or not) 3) Randomness 4) Luck All 4 exist. Sabre-matricians want it to be #1 only. Historicals and qualitatives want it to be heavly weighted on #2. But #3 and #4 come into play a lot as well. And, I don't think it's knowable how much is #1 vs. #2 vs. #3 vs. #4, either in any single series or in all series in the history of baseball. |
#161
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what computers can't analyze is the emotional impact of a hostile crowd in the brightest october lights and our physiological reaction to these stressors. in some of arod's postseason abs you can just tell he'd have no chance, or me personally with yasiel puig judging by his body language he's just gonna flail at 3 pitches with the bases juiced bottom of the 8th trailing 4-2...like he'd rather be in jamaica right then. and this is where the analytics fanboy in me gets confused sometimes...by the number of course you'd rather have arod in there than slappy mcslap david eckstein or angel pagan...but just going by the eye test at least those guys won't shrink up and battle thru the at bat. that's where the great divide is atm and the 2 sides of grit/attitude vs. computer/analytics can't reconcile.
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One post max per thread. |
#162
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re: kershaw being hit hard in postseason...i remember most of his starts, can't recall many instances where he was really hit hard. i do remember him giving up a 2-run bomb matt adams bottom 7th in st louis pitching on 3-days rest where if the dodgers had a better bullpen he should've been lifted after 6...and that wacky game against wainwright where each SP gave up like 6-7 runs it was alot of dinks and dunks and people were wondering if the cards were stealing signs.
re: urias start at home vs cubs being comparable to a would've been start game 4 against washington. this is silly, totally different circumstances cubs are pretty good against lefties their best hitter is rh bryant vs a depleted washington roster where both their best bats murphy harper were lefties and the biggest rh threat was werth. i'm not too result-oriented you trust the process/preparation and make the best decision in the moment with the data you have. a bad decision leading to a positive outcome doesn't mean you should repeat that mistake. i thought the complexion of the cubs-dodgers series changed on that agon out call at home...dodgers should've been up 1-0 with 2 runners on instead of what happened. but it wasn't a surprise the cubs finally woke up, i mean the dodgers are down to 2.5 good pitchers and the cubs are stacked.
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One post max per thread. |
#163
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"The large print giveth and the small print taketh away."- Tom Waits |
#164
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"The large print giveth and the small print taketh away."- Tom Waits |
#165
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wtvr makes you happy booboo
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"The large print giveth and the small print taketh away."- Tom Waits |
#166
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Ugh, that Dodgers game. Spin time for Clayton post-season defenders, I guess.
__________________
My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/ He is available to do custom drawings in graphite, charcoal and other media. He also sells some of his works as note cards/greeting cards on Etsy under JamesSpaethArt. |
#167
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Looking forward to the Series!
Should be fun!!!
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My new found obsession the t206! |
#168
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2 can be easily measured in the case of Chokeshaw. How can such a talented player choke everytime in the postseason? 0-3 with an ERA over 6 in deciding games.
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#169
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It's just small sample size booboo.
__________________
My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/ He is available to do custom drawings in graphite, charcoal and other media. He also sells some of his works as note cards/greeting cards on Etsy under JamesSpaethArt. |
#170
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If you think kershaw post season this year was a black mark we were watching 2 different post seasons this year. ' Anyway, dodgers werent winning the game anyway scoring zero runs but if want to say its all kershaw's fault the kershaw haters will say that. Hendricks gave up 1 run in 2 starts and he lost as many games in the Dodgers series as Kershaw did the entire postseason... 1 loss doesnt make a horrible postseason. (ask Mad Baum on the Giants) The cubs are a pretty good team (ask Mad Baum) , but maybe the Indians will solve that. We shall see Last edited by 1952boyntoncollector; 10-23-2016 at 08:57 AM. |
#171
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__________________
My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/ He is available to do custom drawings in graphite, charcoal and other media. He also sells some of his works as note cards/greeting cards on Etsy under JamesSpaethArt. |
#172
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tough critic. Kershaw's opposing pitchers in the cubs series gave up a total of 1 run in 2 games and Dodgers won 1 of those games. Tough to win 2 games when your team scores 1 run in 2 entire games.
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#173
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You can't give up 5 runs in 5 innings. If he lost 1-0 then get on the offense (which was anemic almost every game) but he got shelled again, Mr. Spin.
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#174
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if he lost 1-0 he still would of lost an elimination game, mr spin.. Last edited by 1952boyntoncollector; 10-23-2016 at 10:04 AM. |
#175
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__________________
My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/ He is available to do custom drawings in graphite, charcoal and other media. He also sells some of his works as note cards/greeting cards on Etsy under JamesSpaethArt. |
#176
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#177
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Last edited by 1952boyntoncollector; 10-23-2016 at 10:13 AM. |
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if a 4.44 era means my team wins 3 out of 4 games i started and i also get a key save ill take it. Man only hitting.286 hitting, good thing he made an out last game who he would be batting over .300!
Last edited by 1952boyntoncollector; 10-23-2016 at 10:12 AM. |
#179
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__________________
My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/ He is available to do custom drawings in graphite, charcoal and other media. He also sells some of his works as note cards/greeting cards on Etsy under JamesSpaethArt. Last edited by Peter_Spaeth; 10-23-2016 at 10:12 AM. |
#180
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If you agree he was MVP of the Nationals series then obviously era doesnt matter. His era was 3.00 in the cubs series and whip was .83 .who care about those good number he lost.. In addition Baez won NL series MVP against the dodgers and went 1-6 with zero runs/rbis against Kershaw. Last edited by 1952boyntoncollector; 10-23-2016 at 11:34 AM. |
#181
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Guess you didn't like Felix Hernandez winning the Cy Young with a 13-12 record then. His 2.27 ERA was unimportant, right?
__________________
My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/ He is available to do custom drawings in graphite, charcoal and other media. He also sells some of his works as note cards/greeting cards on Etsy under JamesSpaethArt. |
#182
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Plus how many post season games as Felix's team won when he pitched. So you agree Kershaw would have won MVP for the national/dodgers playoff series...enough said.. |
#183
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..
__________________
My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/ He is available to do custom drawings in graphite, charcoal and other media. He also sells some of his works as note cards/greeting cards on Etsy under JamesSpaethArt. |
#184
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at least he struck out 1 guy every 2 innings, oh wait that is bad too.. I could drop the mike after this post. Last edited by 1952boyntoncollector; 10-23-2016 at 10:47 AM. |
#185
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Dang...Jake is getting beat up here as badly as Kershaw did during the postseason.
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#186
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Also If you think ERA matters when Livan Hernandez won world series MVP with an over 5.00 era maybe the higher the better. His whip was 1.829 as well. I dropping mike now, have a good rest of the weekend. Last edited by 1952boyntoncollector; 10-23-2016 at 10:46 AM. |
#187
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nothing funnier than watching ignorant people revel in their stupidity.
"I don't like book learnin, it's fer nerds, mama gimme another possum pecker sandwich!"
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"The large print giveth and the small print taketh away."- Tom Waits |
#188
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That's an argument ad hominem, no? Or is it ad ursum?
__________________
My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/ He is available to do custom drawings in graphite, charcoal and other media. He also sells some of his works as note cards/greeting cards on Etsy under JamesSpaethArt. Last edited by Peter_Spaeth; 10-23-2016 at 01:05 PM. |
#189
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Ya dropped far more than that, sport.
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#190
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Yeah dropping knowledge.. good one by the way!
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#191
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Oh yeah? Just all you Dodger and Kershaw haters wait til next year!
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#192
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I love Kershaw. The best pitcher of his generation and, from all one can see, a truly outstanding young man. I am just not deceiving myself into thinking he doesn't have a post-season problem.
__________________
My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/ He is available to do custom drawings in graphite, charcoal and other media. He also sells some of his works as note cards/greeting cards on Etsy under JamesSpaethArt. |
#193
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If you think that a 4.44 ERA out of the guy who is supposed to be your best pitcher was good, then we were definitely watching different post seasons. That is what you would expect out of a #4 or 5 starter. It is bad when it is a future hofer.
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#194
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Add onto that a WS record that includes--- 8 SHO innings in the 2010 WS (as 21 year old rookie), 7 SHO innings in the 2012 WS, then in 2014-- 7 innings w/ 1 ER in game 1, a 9 inning CG SHO in game 5, and the 5 SHO innings to close game 7. It's pretty amazing in its totality. Kershaw destroys Bum's regular season statistics and he's a likely a HOF, but he doesn't come close to touching Bum's record in October. Last edited by itjclarke; 10-23-2016 at 08:38 PM. |
#195
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i clearly was talking about this years postseason. If the Giants score zero in his last start than Bum loses and he was in line to lose. My post doesnt say he lost it notes that the pitching lines were very close for each of these big guys in their last games against the cubs. This thread has been about THIS postseason not being a black mark on kershaw's postseason. Everyone seems to agree that Kershaw would of won MVP of the Nats/Dodgers series and Kershaw went 1-1 in 2 games versus the cubs in which his team scored exactly 1 run. Thats not remotely close to a bad postseason THIS year. There was no postseason problem for Kershaw this year is all i am saying. You are allowed to lose 1 game in 5 games (and be a big part in 4 wins, one of which was 1-0) and the 1 game you lose your team scores zero. Last edited by 1952boyntoncollector; 10-23-2016 at 10:55 PM. |
#196
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BTW- Bum's ERA THIS postseason was 1.93 over two starts. IF we're allowed to use these "ifs"... if his BP can get 3 outs in the 9th of game 4, Bum may have another opportunity to go legend in game 5, as the potential first/last guy out of the pen after Cueto. That said, I think 1.93 in 2016 is pretty impressive in its own right. |
#197
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The point I made about a team scoring zero runs, is that teams pitcher never had the opportunity to win the game. However if you think Bum was impressive this year, then not sure how you cant be impressed with Kershaw THIS year as well in the postseason. If kershaw sucked this year than so did Mr. Bumg. Last edited by 1952boyntoncollector; 10-23-2016 at 11:06 PM. |
#198
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Kershaw is a stud, but seems like you're going to ridiculously great lengths to argue something that just isn't there as far as his postseason legacy (this year, and career) are concerned. In about a week, Kershaw's 2016 postseason will be forgotten forever. Aside from a couple short rest appearances, there is nothing about it that will stand the test of time. |
#199
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Last edited by 1952boyntoncollector; 10-23-2016 at 11:11 PM. |
#200
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rooting for clev...but cubs in 5.
__________________
One post max per thread. |
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