Question about detecting shilling

[itjclarke]

I've seen shill bidding pop up often in various threads. It's clearly a problem, and seems both hard to enforce while fairly simple/easy to execute.

My question- where do you draw the line when suspecting shilling is occurring? I'm viewing an auction now.. a bidder with 800+ feedback, shows 38% bidding activity with this seller. The bidder has bid 15-20 times on this single auction.. each time inching the price up in $5-$10 increments, but never taking the lead. Rather than bidding in round amounts ending in $0 or $5, their bids all seem to end in $2, $7 (like $422, then $427). I won't name the seller as they're feedback is impeccable, and I've bought happily from them before (seems easier to tarnish a hard earned rep than build or re-build one)... but is this suspicious? And more importantly, what % bidding activity raises your radar.. 75%, 50%, 35%, 25%??? or is this even the key indicator?

Any advice greatly appreciated.

[iggyman]

I'm not sure what the correct percentage should be, so that is a tough one. Shill bidding seems to occurs at all levels of the hobby and no one is immune! Sometimes shills happen in ways that are impossible to detect (like someone winning their own card just to drive up the VCP average price). It's part of the prewar playing field and at the end of a long siesta, bid what you are willing to pay, don't get paranoid about perceived shills, try to stay clear of attic finds, if you have little trust in mankind try to only bid with reputable sellers ("iggy-man" is my ebay handle), and enjoy the card once you win..........best advice I can give for what little money Leon is paying me.

Lovely Day...

[itjclarke]

I'd never even thought to check for it until seeing how prominently shilling is mentioned in posts. That said, totally agree, no sense getting too paranoid. I'm not sure I've ever bid/paid more than I was originally "willing" to spend (willing is a loose term). I do think there may have been a few auctions, where I've paid nearer the FULL amount of my bid, watching that gap between "current bid" and my bid close in the last second, than I'd have liked... but all in all, as long as I'm not paying hugely over the market, or what I was originally planning to, I guess I won't worry too much.

Thanks for the feeback

[deadballera]

All bidders have their own bidding style

Some do small increment bids while others do larger


some bid in 5/10 dollar increments and other will use odd numbers.


shill bidders majority of the time will have very low feedback numbers

[camlov2]

I don't think I have ever used a bid that is a "normal" amount, all of mine end in a 1, 3, 7 and never a 0 or 5. I don't think this or the small increments mean it is a shill.
38% seems a little high for a single seller but if you find one person you trust I can understand the repeat business. With 800+ that seems like a lot of repeat business.

[D. Bergin]

The 38% is only for the last 30 days, not for their entire bidding history. It's not unusual at all.

I have yet to understand the theory that anybody who doesn't evenly spread their bids all over Ebay in a 30 day period, must be a shiller.

The biggest hints to me would be a low feedback bidder, with tons of bids with exclusively the same seller, lots of bid retractions and 2nd chance offers being sent out by the seller, almost immediately after the auction.

Maybe I'm naive, but I think more highly of most of the quality sellers on Ebay to think they'd waste their time and reputation with such shenanigans.

I'm not saying it doesn't happen, but it seems all too common for charges of shilling to be flippantly made, without care of the damage it might do to an honest seller.

Bidders are all different and take different paths. Any seller who has done it on a regular basis for any amount of time sees strange bidding patterns on their items all the time.

[novakjr]

I gotta agree with Dave. There's alot of people that view bidding as a mental competition, and that often leads to unusual, sometimes seemingly reckless bidding patterns.. This recklessness is many times used as the blue-print for shilling. Shilling, if done properly(not that there's anything proper about it) should be almost undetectable. It's probably happened to all of us at one time or another without knowing it..

[Anthony S.]

An easy way to determine if they are shilling is if their name is Broadway Rick.

[steve B]

Originally Posted by D. Bergin

The 38% is only for the last 30 days, not for their entire bidding history. It's not unusual at all.

I have yet to understand the theory that anybody who doesn't evenly spread their bids all over Ebay in a 30 day period, must be a shiller.

The biggest hints to me would be a low feedback bidder, with tons of bids with exclusively the same seller, lots of bid retractions and 2nd chance offers being sent out by the seller, almost immediately after the auction.

Maybe I'm naive, but I think more highly of most of the quality sellers on Ebay to think they'd waste their time and reputation with such shenanigans.

I'm not saying it doesn't happen, but it seems all too common for charges of shilling to be flippantly made, without care of the damage it might do to an honest seller.

Bidders are all different and take different paths. Any seller who has done it on a regular basis for any amount of time sees strange bidding patterns on their items all the time.

And even then it might not be shilling. I had an item I was underbidder on with all those red flags. And it turned out to be totally legit. Shilling does happen, but I don't panic and see shills behind every odd bidding pattern.

But if you do, keep right on doing it. In that case, I eventually ended up with the item from the second chance offer for less. And it was nicer than the first one offered.

Steve B

[pgellis]

I also think that with fewer and fewer real auctions on eBay, there are fewer and fewer dealers who actually auction off their items all the time, so you are bound to have some collectors bidding on a lot of a particular dealers auctions since there are so many BINs exclusively now.

I know for me, collecting SGC graded T206s, there are very few dealers that regularly have legitimate auctions on eBay and I seem to bid on their items a lot.......maybe even more than 38% with one of them.

[itjclarke]

Thanks for all the input.. I also do bid in small, irregular increments, so what I saw is probably not too far off what I look like (excepting the 38%). I guess at the end of the day, a healthy bit of cynicism and caution is good, but I won't over think this subject going forward.

Some of the other instances brought up by board members that I'd read about (and got my attention) were much more obvious... Very low feedback totals and 80-90% bid activity with less reputable sellers... These were subject of recent threads, and specifically about some of those raw card auctions that were selling for seemingly more than their graded equivalents.

[Bridwell]

I tend to be skeptical of "second chance offers". I usually review the other bidders and if it looks suspicious, I won't accept the offer just as a manner of principle.

[T206Collector]

If you bid in ebay auctions without using a free sniping service, you are inviting shilling. The best way to avoid it on ebay is to snipe. It is a major factor in so many peoples' decision to snipe, which in turn has led to more BINs than auctions.

I have never once considered whether I was being shilled in any auction. Because I dont bid more on any item than I am willimg to pay for it, I view shilling as the same thing as a hidden reserve. And I have never paid more for an item than it was worth to me.

I really believe that if you're worried about shilling on ebay, that you don't really have a good plan when it comes to bidding on ebay.

[itjclarke]

Originally Posted by T206Collector

I really believe that if you're worried about shilling on ebay, that you don't really have a good plan when it comes to bidding on ebay.

Not worried, just wanted to know how to detect it, since it's written about so often in posts. And I generally feel I have a pretty good plan when it comes to eBay.. though "good' should be used as a relative term and is different for everyone. I've had some pretty nice wins, but also don't ever intend to flip or re-sell cards. I generally don't bid freely on the items I'm really serious about, for those I do the wait and watch... no snipes needed, just an iphone/callandar reminders or an alarm, and 3G. When those final seconds come, I know my price... am rarely willing to exceed it, but often times am pleasently surprised. That said, I try not to take it too seriously.. it's a hobby, it's fun, it's still a nice rush to win, and I love the cards and the game.

[ls7plus]

Perhaps this is a bit beyond the original context of the thread, but shill bidding certainly is not limited to e-bay--it occurs with some of the major sportscard auction houses, who shall go unnamed here. You are 99% sure it's occurred when you set a max bid so you won't have to stay up 'til 4:00 am, and amazingly, you find that you've been "cha-chinged" very late and very quickly through a significant number of bids right up to, but not over that max bid! The way to avoid being "ripped off" is just as other posters have noted: simply bid only what the item is worth to you. Then, even if these shennigans occur, you've still gotten your money's worth personally. We can't always get everything we want a bargain prices, although it is nice when we can.

Regards,

Larry

[U240robert]

I've seen suspicious bidding as well since I've been on ebay, which goes back to when the site first started. It's really hard to pinpoint.
Ebay says that it becomes suspicious when a bidder only bids on certain dealers (like one or two)
However, in my experiences with dealers I tend to bid on the same few dealers over and over. I think one dealer I've won over 400 auctions and I've never met him or know him. I just trust certain dealers with baseball cards and I'm sure I'm not the only one.

[doug.goodman]

Originally Posted by T206Collector

Because I don't bid more on any item than I am willing to pay for it, I view shilling as the same thing as a hidden reserve. And I have never paid more for an item than it was worth to me.

What he said.

[ls7plus]

Exactly!

Larry