Outed cards, now including a 130K gain on an Aaron rookie

[japhi]

Originally Posted by sbfinley

Both the fine art and the antiquities markets are swimming with fakes and sophisticated counterfeits yet prices and record highs in both markets continue to rise year after year. I don’t see why the sports card market would be any different. For the vast majority of sports collectors (or really all collectors) being able to A) Show it off, B) be able to say “I own it”, C) Complete a project, or D) all of the above far outweighs everything else.

I have no idea what will happen to card pricing as this fraud all unfolds but the I don’t think sportscards compare well with fine art. The pool of art buyers is significantly larger then those buying cards. It would only take a few whales to exit cards for prices to adjust.

And card values, according to the pwcc indexes are flat the past 30 months. 30 months that should have seen significant gains.

And unrelated, but I am skeptical that there will be a next generation that can absorb all of the collections that will get sold in the next 20 years. Average age here has to be mid 50s, market is going to be flooded with large collections coming to market. Is there really a second wave of collectors to absorb all of these cards are premium prices?

[swarmee]

Originally Posted by japhi

Is there really a second wave of collectors to absorb all of these cards are premium prices?

Depends on how many Gary Vee lemmings there are.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by japhi

And card values, according to the pwcc indexes are flat the past 30 months. 30 months that should have seen significant gains.

Why?

[japhi]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

Why?

Other asset classes have grown substantially. Markets are flush with cash. SP 500 for instance is up 28% this year alone. Dow has almost doubled in the past 3 years. I think the stagnation has a lot to do with price manipulation and FOMO
but that, to me anyways, reinforces how small the card market is. I think this fraud will have an impact - it won’t take many big buyers to pull back to have an impact. That, plus demographics plus the fact we are at the peak of an incredible debt fueled asset bubble don’t make me confident in long term card values.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by japhi

Other asset classes have grown substantially. Markets are flush with cash. SP 500 for instance is up 28% this year alone. Dow has almost doubled in the past 3 years. I think the stagnation has a lot to do with price manipulation and FOMO
but that, to me anyways, reinforces how small the card market is. I think this fraud will have an impact - it won’t take many big buyers to pull back to have an impact. That, plus demographics plus the fact we are at the peak of an incredible debt fueled asset bubble don’t make me confident in long term card values.

I AGREE with Everything you have said above, except I do not consider graded cards a asset class. THE GRADED CARD MARKET HAS BEEN SEVERELY FALSELY MANIPULATED SINCE LATE 2013.......
It's way to top heavy for me to ever consider investing in.......Long Term I think Levels Go Back to Pre. 2013 Levels.

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

I AGREE with Everything you have said above, except I do not consider graded cards a asset class. HE GRADED CARD MARKET HAS BEEN SEVERELY FALSELY MANIPULATED SINCE LATE 2013.......
It's way to top heavy for me to ever consider investing in.......Long Term I think Levels Go Back to Pre. 2013 Levels.

i agree baseball cards are not an "asset class" atleast not to me! I can certainly see a "correction" with many cards...50's-70's high grade rookies...some T206...green cobbs...possibly goudey ruth's but I see desirable vintage blue chip doing just fine as the supply is low and the demand high.

[japhi]

I don’t count my collection against my net worth so I agree with you guys. But I’ve always suspected that there are a significant number of collectors that have cards as a large percentage of their net worth. I think this is a big part of the reason most collectors want this altered cards thing to go away.

Lets be real, this isn’t a hobby for kids anymore. You can’t even find cards for sale where I live. A small number of large volume collectors are driving price increases on vintage. Hard to see how it can last when most collectors are in their 60s. Anecdotal but everyone I know has money in RE, most own financial
assets, some have non trad investments like art or cars and literally no one collects sports cards. I have a huge network and don’t know one person outside of online communities that collects cards anymore. We all did as kids and
i’m the only guy that came back into it. Our hobby is incredibly small and top heavy.

[steve B]

Historically most hobbies are a bit flat when the stock market is doing well.

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by japhi

Other asset classes have grown substantially. Markets are flush with cash. SP 500 for instance is up 28% this year alone. Dow has almost doubled in the past 3 years. I think the stagnation has a lot to do with price manipulation and FOMO
but that, to me anyways, reinforces how small the card market is. I think this fraud will have an impact

Take sept 14th 18 to dec 19, only about a 10% increase in the sp. Most people arent showing that big Oct-dec dump in 2018 to tout how well stocks did this year. Hey 10% ain't bad, but the "28%" just is accounting for that big drop.


No FOMO and price manipulation in stocks?


No Fraud in stocks? People lost about 90% on this TEUM company lying about earnings. Did that stop the "28%" gain on the SP?

[japhi]

Originally Posted by Republicaninmass

Take sept 14th 18 to dec 19, only about a 10% increase in the sp. Most people arent showing that big Oct-dec dump in 2018 to tout how well stocks did this year. Hey 10% ain't bad, but the "28%" just is accounting for that big drop.


No FOMO and price manipulation in stocks?


No Fraud in stocks? People lost about 90% on this TEUM company lying about earnings. Did that stop the "28%" gain on the SP?

My point was equities have been doing well the past 4 years. And yes stock prices are a joke, pe ratios are crazy high. Cheap money, etc. The fact that cards have stagnated in this environment - easy, cheap money - suggests we are at a peak. If money tightens up look out, and if some whales exit could be real ugly. JMHO.

[buymycards]

Originally Posted by japhi

My point was equities have been doing well the past 4 years. And yes stock prices are a joke, pe ratios are crazy high. Cheap money, etc. The fact that cards have stagnated in this environment - easy, cheap money - suggests we are at a peak. If money tightens up look out, and if some whales exit could be real ugly. JMHO.

Yes, that is true for the people who are spending $50k or more on PSA 10's and high end 52 Mantles. For 99% of collectors, we won't even notice it.

[japhi]

Originally Posted by buymycards

Yes, that is true for the people who are spending $50k or more on PSA 10's and high end 52 Mantles. For 99% of collectors, we won't even notice it.

Agreed!

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by japhi

My point was equities have been doing well the past 4 years. And yes stock prices are a joke, pe ratios are crazy high. Cheap money, etc. The fact that cards have stagnated in this environment - easy, cheap money - suggests we are at a peak. If money tightens up look out, and if some whales exit could be real ugly. JMHO.

Peak schmeak, this is starting to sound like a seeking alpha article. The same was said Jan 19 rescission, global slowdown, etc


When people exit the stock market, they'll need to put resources elsewhere. Maybe something tangible that can make them think of days gone by when life was simpler, and MLBers needed winter jobs. Hoping its oil stocks, since it didnt happen last year!

Dont take it personally, anytime someone relates cards to stocks there are two sides to it. I never believed in these PWCC indices, I stick to what I know. Tough cards, more demand and signed 52 topps when I see 'em

[WhenItWasAHobby]

More high profile cards are outed and the amount of damages incurred just keep piling up:

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showth...90614&page=248

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showth...333320&page=18

By the way where's Peter Spaeth been lately?