someone explain the new card market?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by pokerplyr80

From what I've seen the modern card market is all about gambling for a lot of collectors. Buying expensive cards hoping that a players performance will exceed the hype. And breaking boxes or cases hoping for the big pull. A few guys I know break cases right when they come out and immediately post most, if not all of the big cards on Ebay.

But the big prospects' cards are way the hell up there as soon as they are released, and buying a lesser-hyped guy because you think he is going to fool everyone is a huge gamble.

[packs]

True but there are diamonds in the rough. Mookie Betts is a good example. He was pretty unheard of before he broke out as a rookie. The highest he was ranked on any Top 100 list was 62 and only once.

[pokerplyr80]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

But the big prospects' cards are way the hell up there as soon as they are released, and buying a lesser-hyped guy because you think he is going to fool everyone is a huge gamble.

No disagreement here. That's why I stay away from most modern issues. But the collectors who stocked up on guys like Trout, Kershaw, Lebron, Curry, etc probably did ok. But for every one of those there are 100s that become almost worthless.

[Peter_Spaeth]

I used to follow Baseball America. Everyone sounds like a superstar. But very little of it means sh*t until we see if the guy can hit a major league curve ball, or if a pitcher can keep his control and composure under major league pressure.

[felada]

Just look at the prices for Guerrero Jr to see how crazy things have gotten. He is in double A and the base auto is over 1k

[scmavl]

There is a video from 2010 on YouTube of a card shop owner opening a box of 2009 Bowman Chrome Draft for a customer. The guy pulls an orange Mike Trout auto card numbered to 25, I think. He says "I can't remember if this dude is good." Ha! If you read the video's comments, the customer sold the card for $450 and was thrilled about it. Fast-forward to now... The last one on ebay sold for a Best Offer (so you can't see the exact price) but it was over $55,000.

[dodgerfanjohn]

Originally Posted by felada

Just look at the prices for Guerrero Jr to see how crazy things have gotten. He is in double A and the base auto is over 1k

Literally more expensive than any of his dads cards and his dad is in the HOF!

[Peter_Spaeth]

I don't understand why these Bowman minor league cards are so expensive when the 80s and 90s minor league cards, also sometimes issued years before the ML rookie cards, sell for next to nothing.

Example, you could probably pick up a Mint 1986 Palm Beach Randy Johnson, a top 10 or so all time pitcher, three years before his RCs, for under $100. And the pops are nothing compared to the Bowmans I would imagine.

[felada]

It really is crazy. The prospect first bowman cards go for insane prices and then it starts all over again five years later when their first RCs come out.

[Bored5000]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I don't understand why these Bowman minor league cards are so expensive when the 80s and 90s minor league cards, also sometimes issued years before the ML rookie cards, sell for next to nothing.

Example, you could probably pick up a Mint 1986 Palm Beach Randy Johnson, a top 10 or so all time pitcher, three years before his RCs, for under $100. And the pops are nothing compared to the Bowmans I would imagine.

I understand what you are saying, and you are correct. But not all the minor league cards from the 1980s are quite that cheap. I have a 1980 Reading Phillies AA card of Ryne Sandberg (his first card) because that is the local minor league team for me.

I didn't think I had ever seen a Sandberg PSA Reading Phillies card sell for under $300 (at least not since I started following the card). When I looked at PSA's auction results listings, the cheapest Sandberg Reading Phillies card listed sold for $300.

[WillBBC]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I don't understand why these Bowman minor league cards are so expensive when the 80s and 90s minor league cards, also sometimes issued years before the ML rookie cards, sell for next to nothing.

Example, you could probably pick up a Mint 1986 Palm Beach Randy Johnson, a top 10 or so all time pitcher, three years before his RCs, for under $100. And the pops are nothing compared to the Bowmans I would imagine.

Bowman is one of those legacy sets and Bowman Chrome/Topps Chrome in basketball are looked at as the most important cards for modern players.

SP Authentic has the same weight in hockey. There will always be a premium for these sets.

When Bowman Chrome came out in '97, Jose Cruz, Jr. was the biggest name in baseball prospecting. Did he pan out, not really-but people went absolutely crazy to see Chrome and Refractor versions of his cards. It never slowed down!