When was the end of Junk era?

[Rookiemonster]

I don't think it has stopped. Refractors came out in 1993 and autographs in pack 1996 . Both of those years were well in to the over production era. I've heard from the old timers that 1968 on is considered over production era.

[bobsbbcards]

Junk era is still going on and won't ever stop.

[ALR-bishop]

When did it start ? I bet a really big asteroid or the Yellowstone super volcano could stop it

[JoeDfan]

The junk era ended?!?!

So I can collect new stuff again?!?!?

Oh, nope. I bought a pack at WalMart today (my first in over a year, I think), and it was all still junk.
Meh.

Give me a pack of '91 Topps or '89 Fleer any day over this crap.

[steve B]

Originally Posted by Rookiemonster

I don't think it has stopped. Refractors came out in 1993 and autographs in pack 1996 . Both of those years were well in to the over production era. I've heard from the old timers that 1968 on is considered over production era.

In pack autos started in 1990 for major sets. Maybe earlier for some of the smaller producers?

While a lot of the stuff produced now still sort of falls under the "junk" category, there's a fair amount that I think has some upside. Yes, most sets are produced in a wide array of versions, which really skew our impressions. If there's 10 sets and each has some version numbered to 10 of each card, it looks as if a card that there's only 10 of isn't really all that hard to find.
So the demand gets watered down - even player collectors just shrug and leave it on the wantlist but move on to the next set issued.

Trying to find some stuff a few years afterward is more challenging than it might seem. The first set of Signature Rookies Hockey had signed promos, usually numbered at less than 500. I haven't gone after them as seriously as I could, but I still haven't even put together a solid checklist. For that matter I still see SR stuff I didn't know existed (And I have doubts about some of it. )

And the differences caused by cards being produced in multiple places or changes in production have led to some versions of even the junkiest stuff that are far less common.

Once the group of people collecting cards from the late 80s-early 90s gets beyond the "OMG it's the joe nobody ROOOOKIEEEE!!!" stage some of that will have some value. (And I freely admit that that may never happen )

To me the end of what I call the junk wax era was either right after the strike in 94, or around the time a lot of the formerly big card producers went under. So roughly 2005-2009 ish. Not a hard end, but a fading out of the companies that couldn't sustain enough business to keep the license.

Steve B

[Rookiemonster]

Your right Steve the first game used cards came out in 1996.( got it twisted )

I feel it never stopped for this reason.
Let's say a topps chrome card of Bryce Harper for example.
The regular chrome who knows how many they make of that. Then there are
The different color variations. Who really knows of the final number of topps chrome Bryce Harper.

As in the 80s and 90s I'm sure some real gems will shine through in years to come. But if you think a base topps 2015 Mike trout will be like owning a mantle in 50 years, well I highly doubt it will be anywhere near. It will more likely be like owing a 1994 topps ken Griffey Jr.

[steve B]

Originally Posted by Rookiemonster

Your right Steve the first game used cards came out in 1996.( got it twisted )

I feel it never stopped for this reason.
Let's say a topps chrome card of Bryce Harper for example.
The regular chrome who knows how many they make of that. Then there are
The different color variations. Who really knows of the final number of topps chrome Bryce Harper.

As in the 80s and 90s I'm sure some real gems will shine through in years to come. But if you think a base topps 2015 Mike trout will be like owning a mantle in 50 years, well I highly doubt it will be anywhere near. It will more likely be like owing a 1994 topps ken Griffey Jr.

That's pretty much correct for most stuff. If the culture ever moves past the current one where it's chasing inserts in whatever the "hot" new product is and very limited collecting - Player collecting, rookie collecting, then it might change.

One thing that's interesting is that with numbered cards and stated odds it's possible to get a reasonable idea of the press run of the base sets, and sometimes the non- numbered inserts too. It's tough on some of them, because of the different products - Retail, hobby, blaster, bonus packs, etc with different odds. plus there's however many additional in factory sets.

Some of the better retail sets don't have shockingly large print runs for the base cards.

The stuff I think could have a chance is mostly the retail exclusives, like the Gypsy Queen special SP minis that are in Blasters, maybe exclusive to Target. (My local Wal-Mart either doesn't do cards or hides them well. And I haven't checked Toys R Us yet)

Even if they're just in blasters in general, that's a 50 card set that essentially comes in a $20 pack.

Steve B

[JustinD]

Personally, without a change in collecting philosophy by modern collectors I think it's going strong and unlikely to end soon.

The obsession with "hits" and serialed cards has killed set collecting. Until I stop seeing collectors opening packs and throwing the commons out as garbage, it's still junk wax time.

Crazy that these packs cost no less than 5 bucks and up into the hundreds and people treat the commons like 80's Topps contest cards.

[nat]

My antipathy towards modern cards is due to the fact that they depend on manufactured scarcity to have a market. It's made buying baseball cards basically into buying lotto tickets. And I don't buy those either.

Another (related) problem, which really connects modern cards to the 80s-90s period, is that cards are manufactured specifically to be collectibles. The first sign that this was a thing was when you could buy complete sets straight from the manufacturer (or the retailer). Vintage cards were children's toys, these aren't. One of the charms of buying a '33 Goudey is in thinking about how somebody's dad indulged his son with a penny to buy a pack of gum - even though they were stuck in the midst of the Depression - and that this card may have been that kid's prize possession. When you buy a modern card, you don't get that. Rather, you get to think about how the marketing department determined that adding more foil would appeal to middle aged men hoping to turn a profit on baseball cards, thereby pushing the demand curve on their product a little further to the right.

[rats60]

When you see unopened boxes selling for less than factory cost soon after release, you realize that we are still in the junk wax era. Junk wax=Overproduction. I doubt the card companies will ever learn.

[egri]

I think it will stop when the card companies start putting effort in to their product again. The Topps and Bowman sets from the rivalry years were and still are works of art. Even after the rivalry ended, you can still take a 1960s or 1970s Topps card and hold it up as an example of postwar era pop art. Nowadays, they take a photo, wave their photoshop wands, and call it a card (the low point, IMO, is the 2007 Topps set). The Heritage and A&G sets aren't much better; that's just ripping off someone else's design. There's no originality anymore.

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by egri

The Topps and Bowman sets from the rivalry years were and still are works of art. Even after the rivalry ended, you can still take a 1960s or 1970s Topps card and hold it up as an example of postwar era pop art.

So true!

This is where my art collector and card collector find a great common ground. Also, it's the reason I have outlandishly overpaid for color shift errors as they often exaggerate the "pop art" aesthetic.

[insidethewrapper]

It's considered junk if : Supply > Demand

Not Junk if : Demand > Supply.

Doesn't matter if low or high production !!! If only 1 card is produced but nobody wants it, it is junk. If 1 million is produced and 2 million people want it, it's not junk.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

2016 and counting...

[hysell]

I would say all company's ,That put that junk {UV} coating on both sides of the cards!Fronts, I get,but the backs?WHY!!!1994 to around 2004 are all stuck together like bricks & I would not dare buy a unopened box in those years!Good for a cold night ,if you need some heat from a fire!Other than that , just junk!Rob!

[Rich Klein]

If you do need to take care of those cards which are stuck; put them into a freezer. That will take care of all the sticking issues.