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View Poll Results: Active 'Shoe-Ins'?
Albert Pujols 50 87.72%
Ichiro Suzuki 50 87.72%
Miguel Cabrera 39 68.42%
Adrian Beltre 24 42.11%
Clayton Kershaw 35 61.40%
Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 57. You may not vote on this poll

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  #21  
Old 01-09-2018, 08:52 PM
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Seems a bit early on Votto to me. 250 HR, 1500 hits.
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  #22  
Old 01-09-2018, 11:44 PM
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The perception of Beltre is hurt by the fact that he was a mediocre player for the first twelve seasons of his career (save a 2004 season that was atypical for him, to say the least). 100 is Major League Average for OPS +. The first twelve seasons in the bigs, 1998 to 2009, he had a career 105 OPS +. Never was an All Star, despite playing his first seven seasons in Los Angeles. Received MVP votes in that one season, no other. One Silver Slugger. Two Gold Gloves. Suddenly, when he moves on to Boston, and then Texas, two franchises who are indelibly linked with PEDs, his career takes off.

Here are his seasonal OPS metrics before he goes to the Red Sox (at age 31), and after he arrives.

2004: 163 (MVP runner up)
2005: 93 (7 points below league average. Hmm. Curious)
2006: 105 (5 points above league average)
2007: 112
2008: 109
2009: 83 (a whopping 17 points below league average. He was Ozzie Smith with the stick)
2010: moves to Boston. OPS + is suddenly 141 after having a composite 101 OPS + --league average-- for the last half decade. Hmm. Even more curious)
2011: moves to Texas. The next four years, his OPS + averages 138.

Here are his seasonal averages, from 1998 to 2009--the first twelve seasons of his career. He only played 77 games his rookie year, but this sample is based on an average of 140 games played per season. 573 plate appearances.

.270 AVG, 69 runs scored, 142 hits, 29 doubles, 21 home runs, 76 RBI, a slash line of .325 OBP/.423 SLG/.779 OPS. A 105 OPS+

If you exclude the one monster season where he hits 48 home runs (he never hit more than 26 in any of his other first 11 seasons--can you say Brady Anderson??), the first eleven seasons of his career, he's a .264 career hitter with a .318 OBP/.435 SLG/.753 OPS.

Here are the National League averages in OBP and SLG between 1998 and 2003:

OBP: .335
SLG: .412

And Beltre's composite stats over the same period:

OBP: .320 OBP
SLG: .428 SLG

His OBP for this six year period was 97, 3% below league average.

Then, he had his monster 2004 season.

Yet, after staying patient with Beltre for six years, when he finally breaks out, the Dodgers grant him free agency? Why?

So, he moves on to Seattle. Five years he spends there. And, again, he's awful offensively. Here are the American League averages between 2005 and 2009.

OBP: .336
SLG: .426

Beltre's stats?

OBP: .317
SLG: .442

Between 2005 and 2009, he's got a 101 OPS +. He's 1% above league average as an offensive player.

Excluding 2004, meaning 11 Major League seasons, Beltre's composite OPS + is a 98. He's 2% below Major League Average, offensively, for eleven seasons as a Big League third baseman. Third base is a premium offensive position. Are we supposed to just ignore the fact that he was an atrocious hitter for almost his entire career before he moved on to Boston? What, did he suddenly find the fountain of youth, and the fountain of "don't suck as a hitter" nestled somewhere inside the friendly confines of Fenway Park?

I'm sorry. Adrian Beltre is one of the best examples of a compiler I've ever seen. If you want to vote him in as a defensive stalwart, fine. But his career home runs, his hit total...they don't impress me.
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  #23  
Old 01-09-2018, 11:54 PM
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Jose Altuve?

He's a great player, don't get me wrong. But he's played a little over six seasons. Way, way too premature to mention him in a discussion about shoe ins.


Quote:
Originally Posted by nat View Post
Of course those guys all make it. I'll second packs' suggestion. The Joe Mauer question is much more interesting.

Also:

Joey Votto
C.C. Sabathia
Jose Altuve
Zach Greinke
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  #24  
Old 01-10-2018, 12:05 AM
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As for Kershaw, he could retire tomorrow, and if I had a vote, I'd put him into Cooperstown the day he was eligible without batting an eye. He has been the dominant pitcher in Major League Baseball for the past seven seasons. During that time, the N.L. average for ERA is 4.25. His ERA over that span is 2.10, historic for any era of baseball. His ERA + over that span is 179. That's obscene.

He's won three Cy Young Awards. He's been runner up twice, finished third another time, and fifth in 2016. The only reason he finished that low in '16 is that 40% of his season was wiped out by injury. He would have easily won his fourth Cy Young had he not gotten hurt. His ERA + was 237, and he had a 15.64:1 K:BB ratio, whiffing 172 batters in 149 innings, while walking 11. His WHIP was 0.725. He was 12-4 with a 1.69 ERA.

He's led the league in ERA five times in the last seven seasons, and his 1.69 ERA would have challenged Zack Greinke (1.66) had he finished the year for another ERA title in '16.

The last five seasons, Kershaw's ERA is 1.95. We're looking at one of the greatest pitchers in the modern era.
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  #25  
Old 01-10-2018, 07:38 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the 'stache View Post
Jose Altuve?

He's a great player, don't get me wrong. But he's played a little over six seasons. Way, way too premature to mention him in a discussion about shoe ins.



...and then there's Mike Trout!


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  #26  
Old 01-10-2018, 09:09 AM
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Mike Trout is doing things only Bonds has done. He has no peer and I don't see a clear connection between what people see in Mike Trout and what people see in Jose Altuve.
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  #27  
Old 01-10-2018, 09:26 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rats60 View Post
2 people don't think Pujols is a Hofer?
I didnt vote for Pujols. The question is whether he is a shoo in not whether he is a HOFer. There are enough rumors about him and PED use, there might be some writers who feel he should wait like Piazza had too.
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  #28  
Old 01-10-2018, 09:52 AM
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Bill since you want to discount as atypical Beltre's 2004, what do his Seattle numbers look like if you don't include 2009? Quite a bit better, I expect.
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  #29  
Old 01-10-2018, 11:53 AM
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Trout has won two MVPs, has been runner up three times, and finished fourth this year. Had he not missed nearly fifty games, he would have won the MVP, not Altuve. Trout hit .306, scored 92 runs in 114 games, had 25 doubles, 33 home runs, 79 RBI, walked 94 times, stole 22 bases in 26 tries, and slashed .442 OBP/.629 SLG/1.071, all of which led the AL. His OPS was 114 points higher than Altuve's. Altuve had a great year. He had an 8.3 WAR and a 164 OPS +. Trout had a 6.7 WAR and a 187 OPS +. He'd have had about a 10.0 WAR...as a center fielder.

As great as Altuve is, there's no comparison. In 982 career games, Altuve has 29.6 WAR. In 925 games, Trout has 55.2 WAR.

Trout is an all-time great. Put it this way. After seven seasons, Mickey Mantle had a 174 OPS +. Trout's at the same point is 172. Mantle's WAR was 52.2. Trout bests him.

That should tell you how brilliant Trout is.

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...and then there's Mike Trout!


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  #30  
Old 01-10-2018, 12:08 PM
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Excluding his dismal 2009 season, Beltre's OPS + in Seattle, between 2005 and 2008, is 105. 5% above league average. Over the same four year period, Raul Ibanez had a 121 OPS.

Beltre's '05-'08 slash line is .319 OBP/.454 SLG/.773 OPS.
The AL average slash line from '05-'08 is .344 OBP/.433 SLG/.777 OPS.

Before going to Boston, when he had that career 105 OPS +, Beltre had had 7,455 plate appearances. How do we overlook that mediocrity for so long? Mike Trout has had 4,065 plate appearances in his career. Take how long Trout has played, (nearly) double it, and that's how long Adrian Beltre was a fringe league average hitter.

I can't overlook that. There is no logical way to explain how Beltre turned into a star after playing so long. That seems to happen to guys that go to Boston. David Ortiz was lousy in Minnesota. He had a career 108 OPS +, though he only had 1,908 career plate appearances. But he goes to Boston, and suddenly, he's got a 140 OPS +. And not banging countless shots off of, and over the Green Monster. Ortiz was a left handed pull hitter. The Monster is in left field.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth View Post
Bill since you want to discount as atypical Beltre's 2004, what do his Seattle numbers look like if you don't include 2009? Quite a bit better, I expect.
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