Is One Of These Cards $50,000 Better Than The Others?

[MattyC]

So one of these cards is a 9 that went for like 60k at auction. The other two are 8s that could be had for like 8k.

This, to me, is where the whole grading/sticker game goes haywire.

No matter which of the three cards one prefers, I cannot envision anyone thinking one of them is $50,000 better than the other two. It seems like insanity to me, shelling out so much more money-- for an arguably lesser card-- just because of what the sticker says.

[HRBAKER]

Of course not but someone thinks it is.

[Exhibitman]

Stupid is as stupid does...

[Bestdj777]

I honestly don't think either of the 8s are worth $7500 more than this 2:



To each his own though. That's the great thing about this hobby.

[Vintagevault13]

Originally Posted by Bestdj777

I honestly don't think either of the 8s are worth $7500 more than this 2:



To each his own though. That's the great thing about this hobby.

+1. My ungraded 54 Aaron looks a lot like your "2" and I am 100% happy with it. The obsession with having to have a 9 or a 10 if beyond me (and my wallet). I hope it keeps up, however, so it will leave more mid-grade cards for collectors like me.

[Volod]

Originally Posted by MattyC

So one of these cards is a 9 that went for like 60k at auction. The other two are 8s that could be had for like 8k.

This, to me, is where the whole grading/sticker game goes haywire.

No matter which of the three cards one prefers, I cannot envision anyone thinking one of them is $50,000 better than the other two. It seems like insanity to me, shelling out so much more money-- for an arguably lesser card-- just because of what the sticker says.

I'm envisioning a hedge fund manager who lights his cigars with Franklins and paid a million more for his penthouse because it came with a parking space five feet longer than the next property.

[MattyC]

That's hysterical.

And probably true!

On the serious tip though, I could theoretically pull the trigger on an Aaron 9, but I just would never do it as to me it seems nuts when one can have these two cards for the same price...





But of course that is just one collector's opinion; however a dude wants to drop his loot, so be it. I am just not a sticker/condition-rarity guy and have a genuinely hard time wrapping my head around the psychology behind choosing the 9.

[pawpawdiv9]

Here is mine Hank Aaron card, i love showing it off, one of my all-time favs. And @MattyC: love looking at the Babe.
[IMG][/IMG]

[GasHouseGang]

Even crazier, A PSA Gem Mint 10 Aaron rookie sold for $110,000. I'd take a PSA 6 and be very happy.

[hcv123]

Originally Posted by GasHouseGang

Even crazier, A PSA Gem Mint 10 Aaron rookie sold for $110,000. I'd take a PSA 6 and be very happy.

Try 357,000

http://www.cardboardconnection.com/b...ollection-sell

Wish I had that kind of money to burn........

[GasHouseGang]

That is insane. I got the info I posted off of PSA's website. So I guess the guy that paid $110K got a bargain!

[Exhibitman]

The problem I have with this from an analytical standpoint is that when it comes to the 9 versus 10 items the subjectivity of the grader--the wiggle room inherent in the grading process and the grade characteristics--is often greater than the visible differences between the actual cards at those grades. Add to that subjectivity of outcomes the incessant grade lotto and other gamesmanship involved in the crack and resubmit game and I think you have consumers paying a premium for registry position. I am pleased as punch for them to do that because it chews up their capital, keeps them out of my areas of collection interest, and depresses the prices on the 'lesser' cards of the types they pursue that I prefer to collect.

Although I am not in agreement with the rationales of those who place the number on the slab at the forefront of the discussion and I certainly take my swings at the TPGs, I am really and truly live and let live when it comes to how someone spends their money on their leisure activities. You got your views, I got mine, and to 99% of the world and every wife we are all idiots. I do feel that the people who buy a 10 instead of a 9 are a different breed of collector than me. Our views and visions of collecting are so different that we really aren't in the same hobby.

[GregC]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

The problem I have with this from an analytical standpoint is that when it comes to the 9 versus 10 items the subjectivity of the grader--the wiggle room inherent in the grading process and the grade characteristics--is often greater than the visible differences between the actual cards at those grades. Add to that subjectivity of outcomes the incessant grade lotto and other gamesmanship involved in the crack and resubmit game and I think you have consumers paying a premium for registry position. I am pleased as punch for them to do that because it chews up their capital, keeps them out of my areas of collection interest, and depresses the prices on the 'lesser' cards of the types they pursue that I prefer to collect.

Although I am not in agreement with the rationales of those who place the number on the slab at the forefront of the discussion and I certainly take my swings at the TPGs, I am really and truly live and let live when it comes to how someone spends their money on their leisure activities. You got your views, I got mine, and to 99% of the world and every wife we are all idiots. I do feel that the people who buy a 10 instead of a 9 are a different breed of collector than me. Our views and visions of collecting are so different that we really aren't in the same hobby.

Very well said. I'm really curious though, which is the 9? My guess is the Hank in the middle, or maybe the right.

[MattyC]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

The problem I have with this from an analytical standpoint is that when it comes to the 9 versus 10 items the subjectivity of the grader--the wiggle room inherent in the grading process and the grade characteristics--is often greater than the visible differences between the actual cards at those grades. Add to that subjectivity of outcomes the incessant grade lotto and other gamesmanship involved in the crack and resubmit game and I think you have consumers paying a premium for registry position. I am pleased as punch for them to do that because it chews up their capital, keeps them out of my areas of collection interest, and depresses the prices on the 'lesser' cards of the types they pursue that I prefer to collect.

Although I am not in agreement with the rationales of those who place the number on the slab at the forefront of the discussion and I certainly take my swings at the TPGs, I am really and truly live and let live when it comes to how someone spends their money on their leisure activities. You got your views, I got mine, and to 99% of the world and every wife we are all idiots. I do feel that the people who buy a 10 instead of a 9 are a different breed of collector than me. Our views and visions of collecting are so different that we really aren't in the same hobby.

Adam, that is so incredibly well-put that all I can say is it sums up my feelings on the matter exactly.

[MattyC]

Originally Posted by GregC

Very well said. I'm really curious though, which is the 9? My guess is the Hank in the middle, or maybe the right.

Greg-- surprise, surprise, bro: it is the left card that is the 60k PSA 9. I, too, would take our fellow collector friend Matt's center card all day over the 9. Just proves the subjectivity of grading, and that some truly are willing to let the grader and sticker override what their eyes know to be true.

[CharleyBrown]

Wowzers,

The one on the left?! I thought for certain the middle one was the 9.

Huge difference in eye appeal. Your PSA 3 is gorgeous though!!

[MattyC]

Thanks CB,

For me an Aaron RC always comes down to how the two side borders hit the eye from the top of the card going down. If they start out equal thickness, it just adds so much eye appeal to an Aaron RC.

[hcv123]

I also thought for sure the middle one was the 9 - agree wholeheartedly with all that has been shared. While I do generally like better condition cards - buy the card - not the holder applies - look how the auction companies are now qualifying the graded cards with "high end 8". It seems almost silly if not for the $$ involved.

[GasHouseGang]

My eyes may be playing tricks on me, but I thought the one on the left looked like it had a very slight diamond cut. Does anyone else see it?

[pawpawdiv9]

no freakin way, i too thought the middle. The left does look like a tile as you follow the white borders top to bottom. No way thats a '9'.
I'd stick with Matty's and mine that were shown.

[JollyElm]

It's easy to be fooled by the middle one, because they clearly went into photoshop and adjusted the settings. That's why the white areas look so much brighter on that card.

And I absolutely agree. The card on the left has a diamond cut. Look how much wider the white border is at top left and bottom right.

[esquiresports]

Very interesting comparison. I would have guessed the center card, and if not the center card, the card on the right. Shows what I know.

I really enjoy looking at friends' low-population for the grade PSA 10s. Most of the time they do set themselves apart from PSA 9s. That said, there's a reason I only own a half dozen or so graded cards, and it's because of the difficulty of rationalizing the huge (huge) jumps in price for very small condition upgrades.

For graded cards, my general rule is that they are limited to (1) sentimental cards (e.g., my BGS 10 1983 Tony Gwynn RC - a bazillion printed) and (2) extremely low total population cards (e.g., 1973 Dean's Photo Dave Winfield).

[MattyC]

I agree that the most perfect 10s out there, that are truly GEM MT, are great cards. I also concur that the difference between those GEM MT cards and the most elite 9s is so small in terms of card quality, and so huge in terms of price, that it makes the 9s much, much better values to me. And I extrapolate that to apply to any card that jumps up enormously in price in GRADE X; I'd rather find one that looks identical, close to it, or even better in GRADE X-Y.

The bottom line for me is that this Aaron scenario proves (as so many other cases do; the last Brett 10 on ebay comes to mind) that there are guys spending huge money thinking they have the best card, when in fact they do not.

It's all about not being blinded by the number on the sticker, and trusting one's own eyes.

A TPG label is just an opinion. Sometimes the grade they assign matches the card, sometimes it's stingy, and other times it is overly generous. Other times it conforms to arbitrarily codified definitions that were made long ago, without the input of many collectors.

[esquiresports]

I don't know if it's that simple. Looking at big name HOF rookie cards, it seems that 9s and 10s (when there is a decent sample size) have consistently outperformed 8s and 7s over the last five years. Arguably, the "smart money" is on the investment value that comes at least in part with the grade. It's also typically much easier to move one example of a card versus six or seven or more.

[MattyC]

I agree that the investment and flipping goal does put a whole different spin on the discussion. If someone is going for investment and selling, I can see them wanting to buy and flip 10s.

If someone wants to buy the best looking card period without regard for the sticker or profit on resale, different story. And if someone wants to build a collection of beautiful cards on a set budget for keeping their entire lifetime, I guess that's also another story.

So I think you make a great point, in that one's goal in buying the card is key to determining the wisdom or folly of the purchase. I personally am not someone looking to buy a beautiful card just to sell it, but I agree an investor may want to do just that with 9s and 10s-- given how some buyers of those grades seem not to mind when certain examples don't merit the assigned grade.

That said, generalizing among the grades can also hide the fact that, percentage-wise, there have been some enormous profits seen on beautiful 8s and 7s, even on 1s and 2s. Granted the size of the take is smaller, but it can add up, if that profit is one's goal.

One can also argue that there are many more buyers for cards in a lower price range, as opposed to needing to find that rarefied buyer who can drop 50k on a card. There is something to be said for a broad and deep buying pool.

My personal focus is always on the card and not the sticker or the profit on sale. And if someone bought that Aaron 9 thinking it was better than all 8s, I would contend they were wrong. If they bought it to sell and turn a profit, I would say they will probably do well, unless more and more collectors begin to do comparative analyses when shopping, and see if the card in GRADE X is truly worthy of the grade, and is not outshined aesthetically by any extant lower grade examples.

[esquiresports]

Well said. I often find myself thinking and rethinking how I wish to approach collecting. While all of my bigger purchases have been based on sentimental attachment, they are also grounded in investment. Otherwise I couldn't make sense of it for me.