1979-1980 Topps Unopened price trends

[tulsaboy]

I have collected unopened packs and boxes over the last 10 years or so. In just the last 6 months- 1 year, it seems like the prices of unopened 1979 and 1980 packs and boxes have gone through the roof. BBCE is commanding huge premiums on ebay, but even regular sellers are having lots of high sale prices. I guess i am perplexed for several reasons. First, why the recent jump? Neither set has recently experienced a major hall of fame inductee or major player death. What has sparked the timing of the increase? Second, why such a huge price for relatively abundant unopened product? Is a 15 card 1980 pack really worth $25-50 each? With the ability to source and obtain the set's most desireable cards in great shape for less than a pack's price, it doesnt make sense. The classic argument for buying unopened, being either the scarcity of the unopened product itself or the lack of high-grade examples of key cards making opening the product a reasonable lottery style gamble, just dont hold up. If you open a pack of 1950's-1960's, it is primarily for the experience of having done so. Who cares too much about 79 Topps? Does anyone think this is a bubble? I just have a really hard time thinking the supply has dwindled so dramatically that the prices are justified. When full cases are still available from time to time, and when full boxes are on ebay daily, i think the prices are silly.

As a secondary question, if we are seeing these price increases on 1979-1980, are similar increases on 1981-1983 a few years away?

Kevin

[savedfrommyspokes]

I am not an unopened material collector, but I have also noticed some high asking prices for these years. My thought as to why the 79-80 unopened Topps material has skyrocketed is because the older material (up through 78) has become more limited in supply and collectors have moved onto years with more abundant supplies. Likely this increase in demand has been the cause of the price increase.

Several years back I bought a group of 86 Topps wax boxes and paid $5/box. Now they are selling for closer to $25/box. So to answer your question based on my experience, yes, 81-83s likely will see an increase in value in the coming years (once the "supply" of 79-80 "dries" up). However, with the 81-83s having an even greater supply than 79-80, the likely increased demand probably will not send the price as high as the 79-80 material.

[vintagetoppsguy]

Originally Posted by tulsaboy

Does anyone think this is a bubble?

Yes, a huge one...and about to pop.

[m.wright58926]

From what I've seen, there seems to be a regular supply of these available...so to me it makes no sense why there would be a dramatic increase. My guess is a bubble. Time to sell the ones I have?

[jhs5120]

It's not a bubble.

I used to think it was, but I realize now that unopened material is unique to all collectables in our hobby for two reasons:

• It has some sort of intrinsic value (the cards inside), and
• It has a receding supply (people continue to open it)

Resealers are the only thing keeping the price of a 1980 Topps box from hitting $2,000.

[ALR-bishop]

I do not collect unopened material per se but have a Topps and Fleer set run and keep at least one unopened pack with each set. Given all I have seen over the last few years I do not have any confidence in my ability to discern real from fake packs in general in today's market

[savedfrommyspokes]

Originally Posted by jhs5120

It's not a bubble.

I used to think it was, but I realize now that unopened material is unique to all collectables in our hobby for two reasons:

• It has some sort of intrinsic value (the cards inside), and
• It has a receding supply (people continue to open it)

Resealers are the only thing keeping the price of a 1980 Topps box from hitting $2,000.

+1.....however, if it were a bubble, then I guess the unopened material from the 50-60s would be just a bubble too.

[MattyC]

I can't see anyone in their right mind ripping open those boxes at what they are costing these days. Is it possible some guys with money to burn just want to have some fun? Sure-- but I think that is the exception and not the rule. I have found that unopened collectors who pay these prices like to keep them unopened. I think they are cool, fun pieces.

The usual argument for their appreciation, namely being that supply is ever rapidly dwindling because people are ripping them like mad, strikes me as specious-- given what they cost, and how opening them essentially is a complete money loss. The contents are almost always OC or stained or have dinged corners. Then factor in how only an Ozzie 9+ or Rickey 10 or maybe alternatively a slew of high-grade HOFers is a jackpot, and you wind up needed the first layer of luck just to get a card(s) that is worthy of that grade, then you need a second layer of luck for PSA to slap that 9 or 10 on it. Which costs grading fees, too.

End of the day, I think prices all depend on who wants a piece, how badly/how much they love it, and what their budget is. So while I might not want a 1979 or 1980 box at all, and to me they're not worth much, another guy might pay a ton and thus that's what it was worth in that snapshot of time.

[jhs5120]

Originally Posted by MattyC

I can't see anyone in their right mind ripping open those boxes at what they are costing these days. Is it possible some guys with money to burn just want to have some fun? Sure-- but I think that is the exception and not the rule. I have found that unopened collectors who pay these prices like to keep them unopened. I think they are cool, fun pieces.

The usual argument for their appreciation, namely being that supply is ever rapidly dwindling because people are ripping them like mad, strikes me as specious-- given what they cost, and how opening them essentially is a complete money loss. The contents are almost always OC or stained or have dinged corners. Then factor in how only an Ozzie 9+ or Rickey 10 or maybe alternatively a slew of high-grade HOFers is a jackpot, and you wind up needed the first layer of luck just to get a card(s) that is worthy of that grade, then you need a second layer of luck for PSA to slap that 9 or 10 on it. Which costs grading fees, too.

End of the day, I think prices all depend on who wants a piece, how badly/how much they love it, and what their budget is. So while I might not want a 1979 or 1980 box at all, and to me they're not worth much, another guy might pay a ton and thus that's what it was worth in that snapshot of time.

I disagree with this. I believe a large portion (maybe 30-40%) of unopened sales go to people who plan on opening the packs and boxes - especially purchasers of loose packs.

Last year I sold 5 1979 Topps vending boxes to a man who opened them all.

It doesn't matter if it's a smart choice to open, people will do it anyway. Look at the collectors who open thousands of dollars worth of modern crap. Modern unopened generally averages a 20-30% return on investment and they eat it up. A 1975 Topps mini box right now has about a 50-75% ROI at $2,500 a box. It could go up to $4,000 or $5,000 and people will still open it.

[ALR-bishop]

I know in which portion I am hanging

[MattyC]

I should qualify my statement by saying that the "high-end 70s and earlier unopened" is most likely remaining unopened. At 6k for a 1976 box, as an example, I don't see any remote return based on likely contents. For sure, someone may rip for the pleasure, and modern stuff is its own culture that I agree is all about the rip and big hit. But I think more buyers of the vintage unopened are keeping those boxes sealed, essentially keeping the supply relatively static.

This is purely anecdotal, but food for thought: I opened several mini boxes years ago and spent five years building a graded set. Also got to know all the other big mini set builders, and their ripping experiences. Given the condition of the cards and how OC they are out of the box, I can offer from experience that the average box is losing at least 50% of its value if cracked and the decent stuff sent in for grading-- talking about at today's wax box prices that is.

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by jhs5120

I disagree with this. I believe a large portion (maybe 30-40%) of unopened sales go to people who plan on opening the packs and boxes - especially purchasers of loose packs.

Last year I sold 5 1979 Topps vending boxes to a man who opened them all.

It doesn't matter if it's a smart choice to open, people will do it anyway. Look at the collectors who open thousands of dollars worth of modern crap. Modern unopened generally averages a 20-30% return on investment and they eat it up. A 1975 Topps mini box right now has about a 50-75% ROI at $2,500 a box. It could go up to $4,000 or $5,000 and people will still open it.

While I've never been an active poster on the PSA boards, I have read them on and off. And I know a lot of people buy these boxes and open them to submit to PSA. Bubblebathgirl opens up a lot of late 70s cello boxes.