Aaron Judge

[packs]

I took the years 1996 through 2003, the first 8 years of Mariano's career as a relief pitcher. His war was 26.0. Even if you cut out 2003 because it was a full season and Kimbrel's in the midst of a full season, Rivera's war was still 22.4, considerably higher than Kimbrel's and during the height of the steroid era.

[packs]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

And who do the players think are buying the cards? I don't care how many they are asked to sign (and I doubt any given player is asked to sign tens of thousands), they are getting paid so much money they should take the time to sign cleanly and legibly.

I mean look at this it's a disgrace.
http://www.ebay.com/itm/Justin-Verla...kAAOSwc1FXYHtd

http://www.ebay.com/itm/2016-Bowman-...AAAOSwMvtZXvTC

http://www.ebay.com/itm/2016-Bowman-...4AAOSw6YtZWtpy

http://www.ebay.com/itm/2015-Bowmans...wAAOSw8d5ZWtgn

http://www.ebay.com/itm/AARON-JUDGE-...YAAOSw1BlZVxx0

I would be willing to bet that if you didn't know whose cards they were you couldn't tell who had signed half the autographs out there.

I don't think fans are the biggest buyers of cards. I think dealers, prospectors, and flippers are the majority of the card buying audience. Why do I think that? Because of the type of inserts that are included in the product and the product price point, coupled with the fact that the casual fans I know don't collect cards. Also I don't think a baseball card contract is as lucrative as you're making it out to be. Signing cards for Bowman isn't included in a player's salary as a baseball player.

Secondly, a signature is a mark. If you become familiar with someone's mark, it doesn't matter what the signature looks like. You will always be able to identify it because you are familiar with the mark. To each their own on that one, but if I wanted to collect artwork I would, and then there would just be another debate on what makes something art.

[bn2cardz]

Originally Posted by packs

I took the years 1996 through 2003, the first 8 years of Mariano's career as a relief pitcher. His war was 26.0. Even if you cut out 2003 because it was a full season and Kimbrel's in the midst of a full season, Rivera's war was still 22.4, considerably higher than Kimbrel's and during the height of the steroid era.

Again Kimbrel hasn't played 8 years. He hasn't finished this season, and didn't break RC status in 2010.

Mariano was not a full time closer in 1996, he was a setup man. He had 107 innings that year and only had 8svo. Closer WARs are always lower, it doesn't favor part time pitchers. So you can't use that season to compare to a closer.

I gave you the most comparable stats I could. The first 6 full seasons of closer duty for both pitchers.

[packs]

If those are the parameters then I don't think it's really worth discussing them yet. Rivera was an elite full-time closer for 17 of his 19 seasons. Kimbrel has been a full-time closer for only 6 seasons. It's like trying to compare Altuve to Cobb. Altuve had 985 hits after his first 5 full seasons, after 5 full seasons Cobb had 1058. I don't think Altuve will be within 100 or so hits of Cobb when he retires.

[bn2cardz]

Originally Posted by packs

If those are the parameters then I don't think it's really worth discussing them yet. Rivera was an elite full-time closer for 17 of his 19 seasons. Kimbrel has been a full-time closer for only 6 seasons. It's like trying to compare Altuve to Cobb. Altuve had 985 hits after his first 5 full seasons, after 5 full seasons Cobb had 1058. I don't think Altuve will be within 100 or so hits of Cobb when he retires.

Oh please tell me you are kidding me right now. You are talking in circles. You already brought up cumulative stats. Here is my quick summation of responses and you can go back and read the full response with stats to back it up:

Originally Posted by bn2cardz

Ok so because Kimbrel's career isn't over we can't compare them? That has become the root of this entire thread. I understand that Mariano played 19 seasons.

...inning for inning, Kimbrel is starting out on pace or better than Rivera did.[/url]

Originally Posted by bn2cardz

Today Kimbrel is, arguably, not even the best this season, but doing better than Rivera.

Again I would like to remind you that I am not saying Mariano wasn't great. I am refuting the idea that "He's a once in a lifetime talent". The game is changing and Kimbrel is a sign of this.

I would also like to point out that your Altuve/Cobb comparison doesn't make any sense here. Altuve's .314 BA doesn't compare to Cobb's .370 BA over those 5 seasons. In essence Altuve has less hits in more chances. You can't even compare the two.

A better Cobb comparison would be like you saying Pete Rose is better than Cobb because he accumulated 65 more hits than Cobb over 24 seasons and ignoring the 528 extra games Rose played in. Cumulative stats, in and of themselves, are not good bench marks of a great player. Nor should they be the end all in comparing players.

I gave you legitimate stats to compare Kimbrel to Rivera with the given stats at this point in both of their careers. You are using emotion, straw men arguments, and the argument that "we can't compare current players to past players with high cumulative stats" in an attempt to delegitimize the facts as presented. I still propose inning for inning at this point in their career Kimbrel is very comprable to Rivera, and possibly better.

[packs]

You're the one with the parameter after parameter. I took 8 seasons of relief vs 8 seasons of relief and you said but this and but that. I don't think Altuve has anything in common with Cobb either, and that's my point vis a vis Kimbrel. You're taking a guy who has strung together some good seasons early on in his career and comparing him to an all time great where longevity factors heavily into people's perception of his ability.

[bn2cardz]

Originally Posted by packs

You're the one with the parameter after parameter. I took 8 seasons of relief vs 8 seasons of relief and you said but this and but that. That's why there can't be a real discussion. I don't think Altuve has anything in common with Cobb either, and that's my point vis a vis Kimbrel. You're taking a guy who has strung together some good seasons early on in his career and comparing him to an all time great where longevity factors heavily into people's perception of his ability.

Ok, it is obvious you are just looking for an argument and are unable to look at stats from unbias perspective. You did not take 8 seasons of relief. Kimbrel hasn't had 8 seasons of relief. That seems to be alluding you. He played 21 games in 2010, we haven't even hit the all star game this season. You are taking 8 full season WARs and comparing them to 6 full seasons and two partial seasons. By this logic Austin Jackson's 10 WAR in his first two seasons makes him much better than Aaron Judge since he only has a 4.8 in his "first two seasons".

The parameters I set weren't arbitrary. You tried to compare non closer seasons to a closer with WAR stats. That can't be done. Otherwise one could conclude that Jerry Koosman was better than Mariano Rivera since Koosman's 57.1 WAR over 19 seasons was better than Rivera's 56.6 over 19 seasons.

[frankbmd]

Originally Posted by packs

I don't think fans are the biggest buyers of cards. I think dealers, prospectors, and flippers are the majority of the card buying audience. Why do I think that? Because of the type of inserts that are included in the product and the product price point, coupled with the fact that the casual fans I know don't collect cards. Also I don't think a baseball card contract is as lucrative as you're making it out to be. Signing cards for Bowman isn't included in a player's salary as a baseball player.

Secondly, a signature is a mark. If you become familiar with someone's mark, it doesn't matter what the signature looks like. You will always be able to identify it because you are familiar with the mark. To each their own on that one, but if I wanted to collect artwork I would, and then there would just be another debate on what makes something art.

In the canine world one leaves a "mark" by raising their hind leg near a tree.
Let's hope player's autograph "marks" don't replicate this technique, or we'll end up with shiny, scented cards with yellow stains, and flipper/collectors will search unopened packs with their noses.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by packs

I don't think fans are the biggest buyers of cards. I think dealers, prospectors, and flippers are the majority of the card buying audience. Why do I think that? Because of the type of inserts that are included in the product and the product price point, coupled with the fact that the casual fans I know don't collect cards. Also I don't think a baseball card contract is as lucrative as you're making it out to be. Signing cards for Bowman isn't included in a player's salary as a baseball player.

Secondly, a signature is a mark. If you become familiar with someone's mark, it doesn't matter what the signature looks like. You will always be able to identify it because you are familiar with the mark. To each their own on that one, but if I wanted to collect artwork I would, and then there would just be another debate on what makes something art.

You can be as contrarian as you wish, it seems to be your way sometimes, but I cannot believe the vast majority of people would not prefer a nice legible autograph to a chicken scratch even if it was distinctive. In the meantime, cue up the tune: My uncle out in Texas can't even write his name, he signs his checks with "x's", but they cash them just the same.

[WillBBC]

Originally Posted by frankbmd

In the canine world one leaves a "mark" by raising their hind leg near a tree.
Let's hope player's autograph "marks" don't replicate this technique, or we'll end up with shiny, scented cards with yellow stains, and flipper/collectors will search unopened packs with their noses.

I can't be the only one that sniffs their cards, right? Cardboard smells good. I miss old printer paper.

I'll see myself out.

[chaddurbin]

*sigs are sigs...does it matter if it looks like ted williams or miguel sano? doesn't really matter to me i enjoy both equally. i don't collect autographs for how they look.
*kimbrel--he's had a nice bounce back year. prolly just needed to adjust to boston's scrutiny...some never adjust like crawford let's see how price does. kimbrel's still dependent on the big velo? his 2 pitches have like a 10 mile difference, let's see how he does when he starts to age and his fb is slower. i'd take kenley jansen who has that unhittable 92-94mph cutter like rivera that never ages.

[packs]

I bit the bullet:

[Peter_Spaeth]

He just dropped under .300.

[jb217676]

His cards will never be worth as much as they were a few weeks ago. Hope you all got off that train and made some dough off Judge!

[chaddurbin]

i guess if you're a red sox fan you're waiting for him to fail. as for the rest of us i hope he exceeds his expectation, baseball needs more charismatic stars. a better version of joey gallo would be disappointing at this point.

[packs]

I guess I just don't know why people don't want him to be good. There are some really pessimistic posts in this thread about a guy with a feel good story who's liked and respected by pretty much everyone in baseball. I admit I never thought he'd play as well as he has, but now that he's succeeding all I want to do is root for him.

[irv]

Originally Posted by packs

I guess I just don't know why people don't want him to be good. There are some really pessimistic posts in this thread about a guy with a feel good story who's liked and respected by pretty much everyone in baseball. I admit I never thought he'd play as well as he has, but now that he's succeeding all I want to do is root for him.

I don't think that is the case at all. Most in this thread, including me, do not wish him to do poorly, we just wish, with those that have him touted as being the next Mickey Mantle or Babe Ruth, would be a little more realistic in their assessment of him at such an early stage in his career.

I like the guy, and I hope he continues to climb and do well as I think it is great for baseball, but paying what some have, even for manufactured rare cards, like has been said numerous times, is just plain silly.

There is nothing wrong with speculating/hoping, but with the crazy prices we were/have been seeing with his cards, hopefully you can understand why some were being a little less optimistic $$$ than others.

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by packs

I guess I just don't know why people don't want him to be good. There are some really pessimistic posts in this thread about a guy with a feel good story who's liked and respected by pretty much everyone in baseball. I admit I never thought he'd play as well as he has, but now that he's succeeding all I want to do is root for him.

I root for him too--a very smart, humble guy who is good for the game. I watch every Yankee game televised on Fox Sports, ESPN or MLB in my area just to cheer him on. The reason for his downturn lately is that the pitchers have found a hole with balls breaking down and inside to him (good lefty sliders and righty changeups) plus he is chasing sliders breaking down and away to some extent again (a la last year) and even occasionally chasing fastballs above the letters. His chasing of pitches should be curable, but the vulnerability to pitches breaking in and down to him may well be a consequence of his inability to recognize what these pitches are, and present a more serious problem in the long run.

While I root ardently for him to succeed, I certainly wouldn't buy his cards now, since as I've stated before, their current high level of demand (and hence prices) is of a speculative and transient nature. Also, since he is already 25, it may prove difficult for him to put up significantly high career numbers to even remotely justify those prices later. Buy him during his 30's downturn if he still looks good then career-wise.

Happy collecting,

Larry

[dclarkraiders]

As an O's fan, I dislike the Yankees as much as anyone. Having said that, what I have seen of Judge so far is all good. He is humble, well spoken and appears to be a great person. It is hard to root against him. Also, I am the guy who would get in arguments with other Oriole Fans at Camden Yards regarding Derek Jeter. I would defend Jeter and could never understand why the O's fans would boo him. He was the Yankees version of Cal Jr. How can you boo a guy that shows up every day, gives 100% and is a great person off the field as well. Sometimes you have to look beyond the uniform and show some respect to what some players bring to the table, on and off the field.

Duane

[Peter_Spaeth]

Even as a Red Sox fan I have nothing against Judge and wish him well (in his other games), my issue is only with the frenzy that some people seemed to be in after just a couple of good months, which means very little in baseball.

[MattyC]

For any fellow Judge Collectors, some recent pickups that've been exciting additions to mine and my son's Judge Collection. Frazier, Sanchez, Severino, and Bird (we are hoping for a healthy return to 1B) also have some great-looking cards. Still looking for the Judge 1/1s from Heritage and Archives; hard to find, but leads to lots of ripping wax, which is always fun.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Even as a Red Sox fan I have nothing against Judge and wish him well (in his other games), my issue is only with the frenzy that some people seemed to be in after just a couple of good months, which means very little in baseball.

He is having a historic rookie season. Only 2 rookies have won MVP. Ichiro (OPS+126) and Fred Lynn (OPS+ 162). Judge (OPS+ 170) is at worst top 2 in the MVP race. If you have an issue with hype, it should be over Andrew Benintendi, the next Ted Williams, earlier in the season or Rafael Devers, already better than Judge after 8 games.

[Davino]

Originally Posted by MattyC

For any fellow Judge Collectors, some recent pickups that've been exciting additions to mine and my son's Judge Collection. Frazier, Sanchez, Severino, and Bird (we are hoping for a healthy return to 1B) also have some great-looking cards. Still looking for the Judge 1/1s from Heritage and Archives; hard to find, but leads to lots of ripping wax, which is always fun.

You are a great Dad, sharing your passion with your son, right on!!!

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by rats60

He is having a historic rookie season. Only 2 rookies have won MVP. Ichiro (OPS+126) and Fred Lynn (OPS+ 162). Judge (OPS+ 170) is at worst top 2 in the MVP race. If you have an issue with hype, it should be over Andrew Benintendi, the next Ted Williams, earlier in the season or Rafael Devers, already better than Judge after 8 games.

I agree it's way premature on them too. But that's Boston for you. It wasn't long ago we were anointing Will Middlebrooks, and then Travis Shaw.

[irv]

Had the opportunity to watch Judge and the Yankees take on the Blue Jays the last few nights and unfortunately for Judge, he is still struggling since the All Star break.

I believe, IIRC, he only had 1 double (his only hit) in the series? What surprised me the most, was the amount of strikes he took just watching them go by. Even I, a Blue Jays fan, was saying, swing when I could see a hittable ball coming his way, but he just watched them into the catcher's mitt.

It's his 27th consecutive game with a strikeout The record for positional players is 32.

I am not sure the story nor the reasons why, but for him, and baseball, I sure hope he is able to turn it around.

[irv]

Who's Aaron Judge anyways? What about Justin Smoak?

Hit his 32 HR today, is batting .300, is a switch hitter, like Mantle, is a solid first baseman, has a gorgeous wife and looks like Johnny Hopp.

He does have a few RC's, but nothing like Judge does, so, being since his RC's are more scarce, they should hold better value, no?

All kidding aside, I am happy to see a player turn things around like he has.
I don't know for sure, but I am pretty sure the Jays were looking to trade him before the season started this year based on his last couple mediocre seasons with the Jays.
He has had a great season, and the Jays would be in a worst position than they are (chasing a wild card spot) if it weren't for him.

http://www.ebay.ca/itm/2007-UD-USA-J...YAAOSw0j9ZOIwc

[Peter_Spaeth]

Two more Ks for Judge so far tonight. And he is down to .288. The only positive sign recently is that he is walking quite a bit which suggests he is not swinging at bad pitches, and is also keeping his OBP and OPS up.

[Snapolit1]

Perhaps the comparisons to Babe Ruth were a little premature. Not like Yankee fans though to get a little carried away. Usually very calm and understated.

[frankbmd]

He's been profoundly depressed since learning that his home runs in the Home Run Derby don't count.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Judge was barely a top 100 prospect for most of his minor league career. There are reasons for that. We are now seeing those reasons.

[cammb]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Two more Ks for Judge so far tonight. And he is down to .288. The only positive sign recently is that he is walking quite a bit which suggests he is not swinging at bad pitches, and is also keeping his OBP and OPS up.

I am not quite sure that I heard it right but didn't he tie a major league record by striking out at least once in 30 consecutive games?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by cammb

I am not quite sure that I heard it right but didn't he tie a major league record by striking out at least once in 30 consecutive games?

I think that is right. There must be a hole in his swing ? because he's drawing a lot of walks so he doesn't seem impatient or to have a bad eye.

[bn2cardz]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I think that is right. There must be a hole in his swing ? because he's drawing a lot of walks so he doesn't seem impatient or to have a bad eye.

Mark Simon of ESPN thinks the Umps have changed his strike zone:

http://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo/p...in-second-half

[irv]

Originally Posted by irv

Had the opportunity to watch Judge and the Yankees take on the Blue Jays the last few nights and unfortunately for Judge, he is still struggling since the All Star break.

I believe, IIRC, he only had 1 double (his only hit) in the series? What surprised me the most, was the amount of strikes he took just watching them go by. Even I, a Blue Jays fan, was saying, swing when I could see a hittable ball coming his way, but he just watched them into the catcher's mitt.

It's his 27th consecutive game with a strikeout The record for positional players is 32.

I am not sure the story nor the reasons why, but for him, and baseball, I sure hope he is able to turn it around.

Originally Posted by cammb

I am not quite sure that I heard it right but didn't he tie a major league record by striking out at least once in 30 consecutive games?

The record is 32, he is now at 30 I believe?

Adam Dunn holds the record for position players with 32 consecutive games with a strikeout.

http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseba...tic-1.14027302

[Peter_Spaeth]

Up to 31, he whiffed in his first at bat just now.

From the article.
Judge has drawn 25 walks and hit the five home runs since the break, but much of the rest has been hard to watch. The player who seemed to always put the barrel of the bat on the ball has 46 strikeouts in 97 at-bats since the break and at least one in 30 straight games (51 strikeouts in 104 at-bats in that span).

It's painful to watch the rapid decline of a seemingly very nice young man, and one with some clear talent although his anointment as the next superstar was premature. Obviously if he is striking out 50 percent of the time he is not long for the majors even if he does have the occasional pop in his bat. Hopefully he can stop the bleeding and figure out what's going wrong. It's a reminder of how damn difficult it is to hit a baseball and how small the difference between stardom and nothing really is.

[Bill77]

Just a couple of thoughts I had:

Judge is starting to remind me of Jeff Francoeur, great in his first half season and just average for the rest of his career.

Or possibly he needs some time off he has played 114 of the 118 games this season so far. Maybe he hasn't adjusted to the MLB grind the way the Yankees have hoped.

[bn2cardz]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Up to 31, he whiffed in his first at bat just now.

Yesterday's was actually number 32, tied for the most.

[MattyC]

Originally Posted by Davino

You are a great Dad, sharing your passion with your son, right on!!!

Thanks; that's what it's all about. The boys in my family have always been about baseball— playing, rooting, collecting.

We've really been getting into the players we watch daily, especially Judge, Sanchez, Severino, Montgomery— and it's important for kids to learn the character of rooting for and collecting your favorite players even through their rough patches. I think the Heritage and Archives cards especially are great for kids and adults; lots of cool variations to look for.

Kid turns to me as we're opening packs and asks, "Dad, is this the best thing ever?"

I'm like, "Yes, son. Yes, it is."

[Peter_Spaeth]

Matt -- Trout and Altuve!!!

[MattyC]

Trout cards hurt the wallet, Pete! Boy he has some great looking cards, though.

That Altuve is a fantastic player to watch; the MLB app allows us to catch a good amount of his ABs. Wish my Yanks had a sparkplug that bats .360! Our buddy Gardner's in love with that short porch, LOL.

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Up to 31, he whiffed in his first at bat just now.

From the article.
Judge has drawn 25 walks and hit the five home runs since the break, but much of the rest has been hard to watch. The player who seemed to always put the barrel of the bat on the ball has 46 strikeouts in 97 at-bats since the break and at least one in 30 straight games (51 strikeouts in 104 at-bats in that span).

It's painful to watch the rapid decline of a seemingly very nice young man, and one with some clear talent although his anointment as the next superstar was premature. [B]Obviously if he is striking out 50 percent of the pop [/B]time he is not long for the majors even if he does have the occasional pop in his bat. Hopefully he can stop the bleeding and figure out what's going wrong. It's a reminder of how damn difficult it is to hit a baseball and how small the difference between stardom and nothing really is.

If I was the GM of the Texas Rangers, Joey Gallo would still be in the minors, and remain there until he learns to hit the ball. He takes this big, long cut at mid-nineties fastballs at the letters as if he really believes something positive for his team can come of that.

Aghast at this trend,

Larry

[Peter_Spaeth]

Joey is hitting .208 with 145Ks, and an OBP of .324, to go with the home runs.

[bn2cardz]

Judge had a good night tonight, but he did strike out in his 33rd consecutive game. He now has the record for most consecutive games with a strike out previously owned by Adam Dunn.

[chaddurbin]

you guys would probably bash adam dunn too.

we are not even watching the same game. gallo is delivering great value on a rookie contract and you wanna send him to the minors and have a 10mil scrappy utility man take his place probably...

[irv]

Not a record he wants, but Aaron now owns it.

He is a great person, and despite what some may think my thoughts of him are, I hope he can get things turned around.

[packs]

He's had a 400 OBP the last week and has been hitting the ball a lot better recently. Even over the last month, where people claim he's become a shattered player, the guy put up a 378 OBP.

He's hitting 291 on the season. When you hit 291, you don't hit 291 every month of the season. You have ups and downs. It's a natural part of the game.

[bn2cardz]

Originally Posted by packs

He's had a 400 OBP the last week and has been hitting the ball a lot better recently. Even over the last month, where people claim he's become a shattered player, the guy put up a 378 OBP.

He's hitting 291 on the season. When you hit 291, you don't hit 291 every month of the season. You have ups and downs. It's a natural part of the game.

This week he has been putting up the numbers he did at the beginning of the season, but the issue he has always had was that he is streaky. Sure he has an average of .291, but he dropped to this after a peak on June 12th of .347ba/.453obp/.728slg in his first 59 games, when he had 74 hits and 72 strikeouts. Since that date he has played 56 games and batted .230ba/.387obp/.490slg with 45 hits and 87 strikeouts.

He seems like a great guy, and is a guy I would like to do well. This past week is a start, but there is a lot he has to do to get back to his May/June stats.

[packs]

I guess it depends on the measuring stick. Why does he have to hit 350? If the Yankees have a 25 year old right fielder who is good for 30 homers a year and hits even 270, I'll take it all day.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by packs

I guess it depends on the measuring stick. Why does he have to hit 350? If the Yankees have a 25 year old right fielder who is good for 30 homers a year and hits even 270, I'll take it all day.

Agreed, if he can do that. But if the last 50 games is his real self, that's not good.

[bn2cardz]

Originally Posted by packs

I guess it depends on the measuring stick. Why does he have to hit 350? If the Yankees have a 25 year old right fielder who is good for 30 homers a year and hits even 270, I'll take it all day.

Agreed, I wish the Cardinals had a player like that. That same player, though, wouldn't garner the prices Judge has. I think he would garner a little more just because he so relatable and likable, just not the value he currently is getting.