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  #351  
Old 10-25-2017, 11:33 AM
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Default Hijack Post - ERAs and eras

Not going to mention Kershaw in this post. Promise.

And pardon me for probably preaching to the choir.

Premise: Deadball pitchers were really good, or were they?

With all the talk about pitcher's ERAs as a measure of greatness, consider first

in 1905 when 4.1 runs were scored per team/game in the National League and
in 1905 NL teams made average of 294 errors/team for the season,and
in 1905 about 29% of runs scored were unearned, and so
in 1905 the league average ERA was 2.99

in 1955 when 4.5 runs were scored per team/game in the National League and
in 1955 NL teams made average of 142 errors/team for the season, and
in 1955 about 11% of runs scored were unearned, and so
in 1955 the league average ERA was 4.04

in 2015 when 4.2 runs were scored per team/game in the National League and
in 2015 NL teams made average of 95 errors/team for the season, and
in 2015 less than 8% of runs scored were unearned, and so
in 2015 the league average ERA was 3.90

The NL and the years chosen were done so randomly, but seem representative of the eras they represent.

Have the advances in equipment, primarily gloves, made pitchers worse due to their higher ERAs in the modern game? NO

Why then hasn't run production decreased parallel to the improvement in fielding?

Is a deadball pitcher with an ERA of 3.00 equivalent to a modern pitcher with an ERA of 3.00? NO

ERA as a stat is limited. One error early in an inning can lead to 7 or 8 unearned runs largely due to the ineffectiveness of the pitcher rather than the single error in many cases.

Using the stat to compare pitchers from different eras ain't going to work either.

Using the stat to compare a pitcher to his contemporary peers makes a little more sense, but still has its limits.

WaJo was one of the greats in his era, but who knows what his ERA would be in 2015????

I'm sure this post opens the door to a discussion of WHIPs, BLIPs and FLIPs, but I'm old-fashioned and not going there.
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  #352  
Old 10-25-2017, 05:36 PM
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Originally Posted by 1952boyntoncollector View Post
Not getting team W's or individual 'W's i agree doesnt mean much if your stats are great. However if you ARE getting W's and team Ws, i think those W's matter more than just looking at stats. Your team is not going to win much when you are blasted in the first 3 innings and leave your start. In the event you get a lucky win or 2....it will be really hard to get 9 out of 10 team wins in your starts unless you are pitching winning baseball

Giving up 4 runs when your team is up 7 in the late innings is not much of a negative as the stats would say. Especially when you are winning 2-0 games as part of the streak etc.

Livan Hernandez won MVP of the world series with an above 5 era in the world series so era doesnt matter that much when you get Ws. You can have the best stats in the world, but if your team loses every one of your starts, you arent going to be MVP..... Era doesnt tell the whole story, plus Kershaw's era continues to go down and is under 3 in this years playoffs..
this is total nonsense. we KNOW pitcher wins are a terrible way to judge performance and we KNOW that Livan's MVP win was stupid and a result of incompetent voting, stop using these things to push your narrative about Kershaw's playoff performance.

He has been up and down in the playoffs, but it's such a small sample size as to be pretty much pointless as a gauge. The people who claim he "chokes" are idiots and the people who try to pretend he's been amazing are also idiots.
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  #353  
Old 10-25-2017, 05:41 PM
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thats not my logic....when you see a guy give up 10 runs a game and his team win 9 out of 10 starts let me know. My argument is you have to pitch 'winning' baseball to have your team win 9 out of 10 starts. I will make a wild guess that if you give up 9 runs in 10 straight games in the PLAYOFFS, you arent going to win 9 out of 10 games.... Its also hard to give up 9 runs when you have 11ks in a game.

by your logic if a guy gives up 3 runs a game and his team loses all of his starts, he is great. You are going to need to win some games 3-1 as well to win 9 out of 10 games. Kershaw pitched a better game in the playoffs last year then he did yesterday. He has a bunch of great starts mixed in.

So basically if a guy wins 90 out of 100 games with your logic, that guy sucks if his era is 4+ Eventually the wins matter and the starting pitcher is only giving up non meaningful runs in the 'bad' games that he still winning....and on the few losses he is giving up the majority of the runs..

Lots of pitchers pitch great and find ways to lose.....Kershaw wins... 8 out of the last 9 playoff games his team has won.....not sure what you arguing about..
yes, if a guy gives up a bunch of runs but the offense scores more, he still sucks as a pitcher. PITCHER WINS ARE NOT INDICATORS OF QUALITY PITCHING. it isn't 1935 any more, time to evolve with the times
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  #354  
Old 10-25-2017, 07:40 PM
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this is total nonsense. we KNOW pitcher wins are a terrible way to judge performance and we KNOW that Livan's MVP win was stupid and a result of incompetent voting, stop using these things to push your narrative about Kershaw's playoff performance.

He has been up and down in the playoffs, but it's such a small sample size as to be pretty much pointless as a gauge. The people who claim he "chokes" are idiots and the people who try to pretend he's been amazing are also idiots.
At what point would you be willing to drop the "small sample size" argument? I guess 22 games 18 starts and 113 innings in you still feel it isn't enough to make any judgments at all about the relative merits of his post and regular season performances, so how much more is needed in your view?
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  #355  
Old 10-25-2017, 11:45 PM
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At what point would you be willing to drop the "small sample size" argument? I guess 22 games 18 starts and 113 innings in you still feel it isn't enough to make any judgments at all about the relative merits of his post and regular season performances, so how much more is needed in your view?
8 of last 9 playoffs starts with dodgers winning the game is a big enough sample size. Plus his stats are trending in the right direction and season not over yet..
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  #356  
Old 10-26-2017, 04:53 PM
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At what point would you be willing to drop the "small sample size" argument? I guess 22 games 18 starts and 113 innings in you still feel it isn't enough to make any judgments at all about the relative merits of his post and regular season performances, so how much more is needed in your view?
pitcher numbers don't become predictive until they reach around 350-400 innings. The playoffs are individual sets of series where performance is magnified. So Kershaw's good starts get muddled by bad starts and because they exists over several different seasons they don't really tell us much information at all. It's not like he pitches 18 starts over one playoffs,and it's really not fair to look at it this way. It really needs to be judged year by year, and with a grain of salt because of the randomness of hit sequencing and other things like defensive issues. (that may not result in errors thus clouding ERA in any given playoff series or season)


I wish fangraphs did FIP for the playoffs, but I can't seem to find it, it would be a better thing to look at to judge Kershaw. (even tho the SSS issue still would be present)
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  #357  
Old 10-29-2017, 06:18 AM
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pitcher numbers don't become predictive until they reach around 350-400 innings. The playoffs are individual sets of series where performance is magnified. So Kershaw's good starts get muddled by bad starts and because they exists over several different seasons they don't really tell us much information at all. It's not like he pitches 18 starts over one playoffs,and it's really not fair to look at it this way. It really needs to be judged year by year, and with a grain of salt because of the randomness of hit sequencing and other things like defensive issues. (that may not result in errors thus clouding ERA in any given playoff series or season)
)
The playoffs are NOT the regular season, and a pitcher doesn't get 33-34 starts to generate "predictive" numbers. In a 5 or 7 game series, the best may get 2-3 shots to prove their worth, and in an elimination game he better be nearly perfect.

The regular season is the regular season, while the playoffs are a totally different animal, requiring a different set of tactics for the short series.

It takes something well beyond pure numbers to take the ball and dominate in an elimination game. Conversely if a lights out, regular season staff ace gets blasted, goes 0-2, loses an elimination game, I'd guess the argument that "it wasn't a large enough sample size" doesn't carry much weight in his clubhouse.
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  #358  
Old 10-29-2017, 12:42 PM
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The playoffs are NOT the regular season, and a pitcher doesn't get 33-34 starts to generate "predictive" numbers. In a 5 or 7 game series, the best may get 2-3 shots to prove their worth, and in an elimination game he better be nearly perfect.

The regular season is the regular season, while the playoffs are a totally different animal, requiring a different set of tactics for the short series.

It takes something well beyond pure numbers to take the ball and dominate in an elimination game. Conversely if a lights out, regular season staff ace gets blasted, goes 0-2, loses an elimination game, I'd guess the argument that "it wasn't a large enough sample size" doesn't carry much weight in his clubhouse.
this is just gibberish..... look, sports measure performance via statistics, it's what we have to look at, all the "he's got guts" or "he's a choker" in the world has no veracity, nor any predictive ability and is thus worthless. It's just confirmation bias or recency bias in a smug hat.

What I'm saying is, "clutch" isn't a skill. (and this is a fact by the way, not my opinion)

Plus, your point that the playoffs are different is correct. It's results are LESS reliable and predictive because of the nature of their small sample size and fractured nature (only 3 series played a year if you are good enough to make it every year)


In modern day postseason where 10 teams make it yet only play 3 series (plus that dumb one game play in ) the playoffs are very much a crapshoot. In fact, it's so different from the regular season as to be nearly a pointless waste of time other than making TV revenue.
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  #359  
Old 10-29-2017, 03:16 PM
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Sorry, but I still love BOTH the regular season AND the post-season.
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  #360  
Old 10-29-2017, 07:44 PM
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Sorry, but I still love BOTH the regular season AND the post-season.
I'm just annoyed how dilute it's become. After 162 games 10 out of 30 teams should not have a chance to win it all.
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  #361  
Old 10-29-2017, 10:33 PM
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Now that I've just figured out how to use the Ignore List... what a series!!!

Humans playing baseball. Some rise to the occasion (clutch), while others seem to feel the pressure (choke). It's fantastic! Imperfectly, and humanly fantastic.
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  #362  
Old 10-29-2017, 10:52 PM
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Now that I've just figured out how to use the Ignore List... what a series!!!

Humans playing baseball. Some rise to the occasion (clutch), while others seem to feel the pressure (choke). It's fantastic! Imperfectly, and humanly fantastic.
nothing funnier than when people not only refuse to recognize their ignorance, they revel in it!

I bet you think evolution is a govt conspiracy too eh?
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  #363  
Old 10-29-2017, 11:26 PM
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That small sample size thing is killing Clayton!! But he will do better when they stop playing live games and start doing APBA simulations. Then he can regress to the mean, or whatever that statistical term is.
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  #364  
Old 10-29-2017, 11:40 PM
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That small sample size thing is killing Clayton!! But he will do better when they stop playing live games and start doing APBA simulations. Then he can regress to the mean, or whatever that statistical term is.
Some people can't handle the fact that Kershaw is a choker. It is real, some people just don't want to admit it. Some players just can't handle pressure and they choke like Kershaw. Others aren't affected by pressure.
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  #365  
Old 10-29-2017, 11:50 PM
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Some people can't handle the fact that Kershaw is a choker. It is real, some people just don't want to admit it. Some players just can't handle pressure and they choke like Kershaw. Others aren't affected by pressure.
I remember really liking a girl when I was like 14, but every time I got a chance to talk to her, I froze up, and usually just walked away. I CHOKED!!!

People can get nervous! People can choke!! Others don't, and they score all the chicks.
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  #366  
Old 10-30-2017, 12:06 AM
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The clutch hitting seen tonight is just unreal. I can't remember anything like... since game 2 that is.

And Barnes has some huge ballz stretching that single into a double.
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  #367  
Old 10-30-2017, 12:52 AM
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Game 5 was the best World Series game I have ever seen. I didn't care much who wins this series until I watched this game tonight. Now I have to pull for Houston. That team just would not quit. Actually both teams. It was like two boxers trading punches and the last one standing wins. WOW.
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  #368  
Old 10-30-2017, 12:55 AM
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Simply amazing game tonight.
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  #369  
Old 10-30-2017, 01:02 AM
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crazy unique game. Jenson really hurting the legacy.

Not sure why not keep kershaw in with 90 pitches against altuve...might as well go down with him than maeda....2 more inherited runners scored on keshaw with 2 outs no less. Really hard to win playoff games....thats why the dodgers winning 7 out of the last 8 kershaw playoff starts so amazing...even this one he exited with a 3 run lead..

Dodgers somehow need to get past verlander....but even if get to game 7..id rather start Wood than Yu..
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  #370  
Old 10-30-2017, 01:05 AM
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Some people can't handle the fact that Kershaw is a choker. It is real, some people just don't want to admit it. Some players just can't handle pressure and they choke like Kershaw. Others aren't affected by pressure.
I think some games just are on the extreme and can be thrown out. A game with 25 runs probably would be considered an outlier...every pitcher in game 5 would be considered a choker...kershaw probably pitched the best versus every other pitcher in game 5...

kershaw didnt lose the game..when up 3 when he exited with 2 outs as well....what he have 1 Loss in his last 10 playoff starts? thats far from a choker..and agaisnt number 1 starters to boot....now Kenley is another matter...

Last edited by 1952boyntoncollector; 10-30-2017 at 01:05 AM.
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  #371  
Old 10-30-2017, 01:34 AM
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I think some games just are on the extreme and can be thrown out. A game with 25 runs probably would be considered an outlier...every pitcher in game 5 would be considered a choker...kershaw probably pitched the best versus every other pitcher in game 5...

kershaw didnt lose the game..when up 3 when he exited with 2 outs as well....what he have 1 Loss in his last 10 playoff starts? thats far from a choker..and agaisnt number 1 starters to boot....now Kenley is another matter...
Not really wanting to engage in the Kershaw post season debate, but have to comment. He is clearly an amazing pitcher, the best (during the regular season) of this decade, but had he brought his A game, he would not be getting pulled before the end of the 5th.

I know Bumgarner's post season stats get talked about more than enough, but when talking about what might be good for Kershaw, I have to point out the lines from Bum's WS appearances.

2010-
8 innings, 0 ER- Win (road)

2012-
7 innings, 0 ER- Win (road)

2014-
7 innings, 1 ER- Win (road)
9 innings 0 ER- Shutout Win
5 innings, 0 ER- saves game 7 (road)

For good measure, throw in his 2x complete game shutouts in elimination wild card games, and you've got a true postseason ace.

When you have to make qualification after qualification about someone/something, it's probably just not that great.

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  #372  
Old 10-30-2017, 06:53 AM
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Originally Posted by 1952boyntoncollector View Post
I think some games just are on the extreme and can be thrown out. A game with 25 runs probably would be considered an outlier...every pitcher in game 5 would be considered a choker...kershaw probably pitched the best versus every other pitcher in game 5...

kershaw didnt lose the game..when up 3 when he exited with 2 outs as well....what he have 1 Loss in his last 10 playoff starts? thats far from a choker..and agaisnt number 1 starters to boot....now Kenley is another matter...
Will you just stop with the spin already. He got shelled.
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  #373  
Old 10-30-2017, 06:54 AM
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The clutch hitting seen tonight is just unreal. I can't remember anything like... since game 2 that is.

And Barnes has some huge ballz stretching that single into a double.
No such thing as clutch hitting. Just random hit sequencing.
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  #374  
Old 10-30-2017, 08:54 AM
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No such thing as clutch hitting. Just random hit sequencing.
I agree. It's like trying to place a hundred mile an hour fastball as a batter. I see the announcers say the batter tried to pull or drive it. I say BS?> he was just trying to get his bat on it and that is where it went.
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  #375  
Old 10-30-2017, 11:29 AM
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I agree. It's like trying to place a hundred mile an hour fastball as a batter. I see the announcers say the batter tried to pull or drive it. I say BS?> he was just trying to get his bat on it and that is where it went.
It is about making solid contact. The record 8 home runs allowed by Kershaw isn't random. It's not like he has even pitched that many innings, 29. When the Cardinals were in the World Series, you could pencil Bob Gibson in for 27 without a division series or LCS. I know, today the snowflakes can't be asked to do too much.
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  #376  
Old 10-30-2017, 03:23 PM
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No such thing as clutch hitting. Just random hit sequencing.
haha, right, we all know these guys are in no way influenced by the national stage, or the game situation . A .290 hitter, is a .290 hitter, is a .290 hitter... or shall I say, a 3.4 WAR guy, is a 3.4 WAR guy, is a 3.4 WAR guy.

To Leon's comment about announcers, I agree that stuff gets overstated a lot, however watch an MLB BP, and you'll see many/most guys work through a progression in their first couple rounds--- bunt toward 1st, bunt toward 3rd, groundballs to right, groundballs to left, then hit away. I doubt there's a whole lot of this directional hitting in game situations, and guys like Stanton have never been asked to bunt, or hit a groundball to 2nd. However I do think a lot of the low K rate, good bat control guys regularly try to execute this stuff on hit and runs, against the shift, butcher play, etc.

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  #377  
Old 11-01-2017, 09:26 PM
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Anyone else think Corey Seager looks like Roger Maris?
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  #378  
Old 11-02-2017, 08:08 AM
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.

Dodgers somehow need to get past verlander....but even if get to game 7..id rather start Wood than Yu..
Well they got past Verlander...but didnt start Wood (or kershaw)

Wait till next year
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  #379  
Old 11-02-2017, 10:22 AM
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No such thing as clutch hitting. Just random hit sequencing.
Gonna remember this one
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  #380  
Old 11-02-2017, 10:27 AM
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Anyone else think Corey Seager looks like Roger Maris?
You musty be kidding. You know what Maris looks like these days?! (I know, I'll be crucified for this remark - but am a lifelong Yankee fan so okay).
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  #381  
Old 11-02-2017, 11:36 AM
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You musty be kidding. You know what Maris looks like these days?! (I know, I'll be crucified for this remark - but am a lifelong Yankee fan so okay).
Now do you see it?
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  #382  
Old 11-02-2017, 02:43 PM
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Now do you see it?
Agreed. Even the ears match.
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Old 11-02-2017, 03:32 PM
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Gonna remember this one
Justin Turner was the greatest clutch hitter since Babe Ruth. Until he wasn’t.
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Old 11-02-2017, 04:41 PM
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Agreed. Even the ears match.
Lol, he does not look like Joe Jackson!
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Old 11-10-2017, 01:25 PM
1952boyntoncollector 1952boyntoncollector is offline
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Andrew Toles would of made a huge difference if he didnt tear his ACL..
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Old 10-05-2018, 11:43 PM
1952boyntoncollector 1952boyntoncollector is offline
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you had said THIS year was a black mark though. Its obviously a short sample size when so many inherited runners scored and his recent performance on short days rest gives more credence to give him the benefit of the doubt on the past performances. His era is probably now close to 2.50 if only half of the inherited runners scored during the postseason

You were provided with many stats on the past performances that showed the amount of runs scored was not usual given the metrics in play. The recent performances are showing the numbers evening out.

Your quote was "The post season continues, IMO, to be a huge black mark on his otherwise astonishing career"

Lets face it, the narrative has changed. He has pitched in every post season victory this year for the Dodgers. I just dont see the Huge Black mark when you made that post, when he won the first 2 games he started which helped him earn another start in the second round and another victory. I mean it only took one more start to show right now he is having a TERRIFIC postseason.

You are allowed to not have as good numbers against 100 win teams overall then you do when you face the Braves/losing teams this year in the regular season. Postseason stats against elite teams are not expected to be as good as they are against the regular season teams.

yet again, further evidence the narrative has changed on Kershaw not being a a good playoff pitcher...its been 3 or so straight years now where he has been good to great......whip will be 1.08 around and era will be in the 3's when this year is over.

guy has won 8 postseason games now..plus had the lead in several others in which the bullpen blew or left in a tie situation........

the narrative of him not being a good playoff pitcher has changed....


He is 6-1 with a save right now since 2016.... ....... need to talk david price if want to talk playoff issues....the ship has sailed on kershaw

Last edited by 1952boyntoncollector; 10-07-2018 at 10:47 AM.
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Old 10-13-2018, 09:25 AM
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yet again, further evidence the narrative has changed on Kershaw not being a a good playoff pitcher...its been 3 or so straight years now where he has been good to great......whip will be 1.08 around and era will be in the 3's when this year is over.

guy has won 8 postseason games now..plus had the lead in several others in which the bullpen blew or left in a tie situation........

the narrative of him not being a good playoff pitcher has changed....


He is 6-1 with a save right now since 2016.... ....... need to talk david price if want to talk playoff issues....the ship has sailed on kershaw
You were saying..
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Old 10-13-2018, 10:14 AM
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You were saying..
So you were not impressed with his 3 innings of work last night?
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Old 10-13-2018, 11:43 AM
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...the ship has sailed on kershaw

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You were saying..
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So you were not impressed with his 3 innings of work last night?
Flat earth proponents presume that Kershaw and Grandal sailed to the edge of the earth last night and were unable to tack.
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  #390  
Old 10-13-2018, 02:40 PM
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So he gave up a 407 foot home run to the Brewer's relief pitcher...doesn't everybody?
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Old 10-17-2018, 08:24 PM
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You were saying..
I was saying the narrative has changed on kershaw. Game 5 the biggest game of the series thus far with teh brewers 7 innings only 3 hits and 9 ks.....of course it helps when your teams doesnt allow unearned runs or catcher allows 3 passed balls and other issues that cause runs to be 'earned' but caused by defense.

Heck even the run he allowed today probably not scored if they take the out on the pitcher instead of letting the ball go foul..


The narrative has changed on the playoff performance of kershaw...
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Old 10-17-2018, 08:33 PM
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He came up huge today.
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Old 10-17-2018, 08:39 PM
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He came up huge today.
even throwing 91 mph....its christian yelich thats really let his team down...a lot of real key at bats this series......hes like bizarro grandal...
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Old 10-17-2018, 10:15 PM
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So far it seems like LA and MIL can pitch and that BOS and HOU can hit.

What this means for the Series Is speculation, but we will find out.
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Old 10-18-2018, 04:53 AM
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So far it seems like LA and MIL can pitch and that BOS and HOU can hit.

What this means for the Series Is speculation, but we will find out.
Well AL parks have a DH and they dont get to walk players with 2 outs to face a the pitcher......
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Old 10-18-2018, 10:54 AM
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Well AL parks have a DH and they dont get to walk players with 2 outs to face a the pitcher......
A simplistic response to a simplistic observation.

So whichever league has the home field advantage in the WS wins.

I did not know that.

I wonder if the bookies in Vegas know that.

Readers of this thread are sure to place their bets accordingly and win.
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Old 10-18-2018, 03:55 PM
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Read an article today entitled The Kershawsheck Redemption
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  #398  
Old 10-18-2018, 10:18 PM
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Read an article today entitled The Kershawsheck Redemption
it's bad enough that we get the pro/con kershaw post here after every one of his start...but actual highly respected baseball writers who get paid to make insightful observations about the game also live and die with every october kershaw start. it is what it is, the kershaw conundrum has jumped the shark a few years and a dozen articles ago...he's not as bad as the numbers suggest but absolutely has not been the dominant regular season kershaw either. until his team wins a world series he will always have that monkey on his back. that's about as objective as i can be being a lifetime dodgers fan.
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Old 10-19-2018, 12:32 AM
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it's bad enough that we get the pro/con kershaw post here after every one of his start...but actual highly respected baseball writers who get paid to make insightful observations about the game also live and die with every october kershaw start. it is what it is, the kershaw conundrum has jumped the shark a few years and a dozen articles ago...he's not as bad as the numbers suggest but absolutely has not been the dominant regular season kershaw either. until his team wins a world series he will always have that monkey on his back. that's about as objective as i can be being a lifetime dodgers fan.
Agree with this. Kersh has had some clutch postseason performances, game 1 of the world series to name one. He's had some stinkers, a couple that especially hurt because of 7th inning implosions in the midst of dominating performances. A couple others where he got shelled. He's no choker, but not consistently the best regular season pitcher I've personally seen with my own eyes either.
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Old 10-19-2018, 09:44 AM
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Pretty surprising that Houston got swept at home. Despite the bad call on the Altuve homer, Boston was simply the better team.
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