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Old 07-27-2018, 11:27 PM
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Scott Russell
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Default First player to reach 3000 hits not to make the HOF?

I nominate Nick Markakis. More than reasonable chance at 3k hits (will have about 2250 by the end of this season, turns 35 after season is over) no shot at HOF.

Anyone else?

EDIT: Oh and it's not a popular sentiment, but Ichiro shouldn't be a Hall of Famer, but he will be.
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Last edited by Aquarian Sports Cards; 07-27-2018 at 11:35 PM.
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Old 07-28-2018, 12:36 AM
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For a while, I thought Starlin Castro was a sure thing, given how young he started.

I honestly don't know. Nobody else close enough to, or over 2,000 hits with a realistic shot at 3,000.
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Old 07-28-2018, 02:29 AM
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When he comes back, Robinson Cano still has a shot. He currently has 2,417 hits and he's 35.

Steve
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Old 07-28-2018, 07:05 AM
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Rafael Palmiero will never make the HOF.
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Old 07-28-2018, 07:38 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards View Post
I nominate Nick Markakis. More than reasonable chance at 3k hits (will have about 2250 by the end of this season, turns 35 after season is over) no shot at HOF.

Anyone else?

EDIT: Oh and it's not a popular sentiment, but Ichiro shouldn't be a Hall of Famer, but he will be.
I don't know that he has a "reasonable chance." We can play with the numbers a variety of ways to point out what he would need to average each season to get to 3,000, but a basic projection would be 150 hits per year for the next five years. Anything less than five years seems totally unrealistic, given what he would need to average each season.

That is a lot of hits in his late 30s for a guy who has never had more than 191 hits in a year (that was at age 23). Many/most guys hit a wall production wise in their mid to late 30s. It's not at all unusual for a guy that age to go from being a productive, everyday player to batting .220 in a platoon over the course of a single offseason.

If he was at 2,600-2,700 hits after this season, I think then he would have a reasonable chance. I think he is too far away from 3,000 for his age, There is a definite difference in the quality of players in the 3,000 hit club and some of the guys in the 2,700-2,800 range: Omar Vizquel (2,877), Harold Baines (2,866), Johnny Damon (2,769), Rusty Staub (2,716),
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Last edited by Bored5000; 07-28-2018 at 08:29 AM.
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Old 07-28-2018, 09:47 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jim65 View Post
Rafael Palmiero will never make the HOF.
Good call, forgot he got to 3000
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Old 07-28-2018, 09:53 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jim65 View Post
Rafael Palmiero will never make the HOF.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bored5000 View Post
I don't know that he has a "reasonable chance." We can play with the numbers a variety of ways to point out what he would need to average each season to get to 3,000, but a basic projection would be 150 hits per year for the next five years. Anything less than five years seems totally unrealistic, given what he would need to average each season.

That is a lot of hits in his late 30s for a guy who has never had more than 191 hits in a year (that was at age 23). Many/most guys hit a wall production wise in their mid to late 30s. It's not at all unusual for a guy that age to go from being a productive, everyday player to batting .220 in a platoon over the course of a single offseason.

If he was at 2,600-2,700 hits after this season, I think then he would have a reasonable chance. I think he is too far away from 3,000 for his age, There is a definite difference in the quality of players in the 3,000 hit club and some of the guys in the 2,700-2,800 range: Omar Vizquel (2,877), Harold Baines (2,866), Johnny Damon (2,769), Rusty Staub (2,716),
I understand your point, but he's been so amazingly consistent and healthy that, while a late 30's drop off is certainly a real possibility, I think 180 hits each of the next two or three years is equally possible giving him room for even a fairly rapid decline later. If he gets 360 over the next two years then he only needs 390 more in three seasons to get there by age 39. I could easily see a scenario like 180, 180, 150, 120, 120. If his decline were more gradual you could see something like 180, 165, 150, 135, 120, which still gets him there.

I did the math and thought an average of 150 hits per, while not a gimme, was reasonably possible, that's what actually led to the thread!
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Last edited by Aquarian Sports Cards; 07-28-2018 at 09:54 AM.
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Old 07-28-2018, 10:25 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards View Post
I understand your point, but he's been so amazingly consistent and healthy that, while a late 30's drop off is certainly a real possibility, I think 180 hits each of the next two or three years is equally possible giving him room for even a fairly rapid decline later. If he gets 360 over the next two years then he only needs 390 more in three seasons to get there by age 39. I could easily see a scenario like 180, 180, 150, 120, 120. If his decline were more gradual you could see something like 180, 165, 150, 135, 120, which still gets him there.

I did the math and thought an average of 150 hits per, while not a gimme, was reasonably possible, that's what actually led to the thread!
I get what you are saying; it is an interesting debate. I just think it is really dicey to project health and production for guys age 35+.

On one of the other message boards I post on, I remember there being a huge debate for how many hits Derek Jeter would finish with. Jeter had a great year as a 38 year old in 2012 with 216 hits (over 3,300 hits through his age 38 season). Some of the people in that discussion were projecting him for 4,000 hits based on that 2012 season. Most people in the thread thought it was a given that he would at least get to Hank Aaron at 3,771 for third all-time.

The following year, he played in only 17 games. Two years after that great season, he retired. I know that is just one anecdotal example, but Markakis still seems really far away to me.
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Last edited by Bored5000; 07-28-2018 at 11:08 AM.
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Old 07-28-2018, 10:29 AM
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If Nick Markakis makes it to 3000 hits though, will he look more like a HOFer? Look at Craig Biggio. Take away his last 2 seasons where he was a replacement level player and he has 2795 hits, a 112 OPS+, 67.2 WAR and 54.5 JAWS. Does he make the HOF? Is he better than Lou Whitaker and Bobby Grich? Guys that got 2.9% and 2.6% of the HOF vote and were off the ballot in 1 year.

Rafael Palmeiro isn't in the HOF because of steroids. If Bonds or Clemens gets in, that will open the gates for other steroids guys like Palmeiro. Rafael certainly has as good of a case as Biggio if we ignore the cheating.
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Old 07-28-2018, 10:36 AM
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Other than clear steroid cases, is Sheffield the only one with 500 HR not in?
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