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Random Thoughts on this Hobby and its Future
As I sit here on a snowy, sleety,and freezing Friday night I am pondering the future of autograph collecting as we know it.
After reading Hauls of Shame's latest post concerning the Heritage Auction offering tomorrow of the Joe Jackson autographed photo and others from the featured collection they are offering, and seeing that the bidding on Jackson's photo has topped $ 100,000 and that now the FBI may be getting involved makes me wonder where will it end. Let us not forget that net54 members called it (them) out weeks ago on the signatures from that collection. We talk about forgeries and questionable signatures but yet they keep coming at what seems like a record pace and many with histories seemingly too good to be true . It seems now that there are more forgeries of Ruth, Gehrig, DiMaggio, Williams, and Mantle than there are authentic signatures....and they keep coming and keep getting authenticated and keep getting bought whether by novice or "experienced" yet uneducated collectors. The forgers know their market , their focus is determined. After all when was the last time a forged signature of Musial,Greenberg,Sisler, Grove, or Hack Wilson was offered for sale or a Black Sox player ( other than Jackson) was offered for sale or wrongly authenticated? Sure there are forgeries of probably 90% of all HOFers and upper tier players but the majority of forgeries occupy a narrow scope of players living and dead. Remember when we worried about Pujols' forgeries and now that he is kind of off the grid it is Jeter and Trout. Concerning rare autos only CCA has the determination to consistently offer questionable signatures on a regular basis but yet nothing is done to them. There are probably more forgeries of the big 5 than the total for all of the top 25 rarest HOFers, and of course there is no real knowledge as to what is truly a forgery and what is not for those rare HoFers due to a lack of certifiable life long examples and the consideration of signature variations. After forgeries we have to contend with issues of provenance and possible theft and title issues for the rare and ultra rare signatures. Now it appears that good ole " Say it ain't so Joe" Joe Jackson is in the spotlight now . It makes me wonder who is next to get the spotlight for questionable authenticity and where is our collecting and hobby headed now but also in the extended future? What will occur with the big 2 TPA companies, who continue to certify glaring forgeries; as well as those auction houses that put money and the latest " find" before integrity? What about those dealers who intentionally or unintentionally continue to sell or resell questionable autographs? Will all of these go the way of Mastro or continue to prosper ? I guess I should be happy that I only collect baseball and HoF autographs and not rare books or artwork where forgeries exist but at oh so much of a higher price. But you know I can't wait for the next auction or to get my next autograph in the mail. |
#2
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My name is David and I'm an autograph junky.
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#3
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Made me laugh!
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#4
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I am going to try and answer without rambling on, too much. Until the FBI or another organization comes in and starts policing these auction houses, I believe we will remain in a status quo. I see forgers have moved more away from sports and are now focusing in on the entertainment, where signatures studies are much more elusive and people are willing to spend even more money for an "autographed McCartney" guitar. Google fake Anthony Nurse if you have a few minutes. I know the FBI is quietly working on this as well, although I can't get into too much detail. As for sports autographs, I think items with iron-clad provenance (checks, contracts, letters) will continue to command a premium, from top-collectors, such as those on this board.
My bold prediction is that JSA will go the way of GAI in the next few years. They pretty much have started already, they just haven't been called out yet in the larger community. |
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#6
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Taz,
I heard of Anthony Nurse a couple of years ago but haven't thought of him in a while. I hope they get what is coming to them, scamming is bad but scamming in the name of charity is egregious . Your comment about JSA is interesting, because if they do go the way of GAI a couple of things could happen. One is that PSA will be the only major player in the TPA business and will that allow them to cert more bad autos than they already do? Second we all know that Jimmy will land on his feet somewhere else as an authenticator and that he could possibly blame the downfall of JSA on his "untrained" employees certing autos that he had no control over since he was so busy with "bigger" projects. I do agree with you about checks and contracts ( legal documents). |
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This might just be me, but I've noticed that I'm becoming less interested in collecting as more and more old timers pass away. I think baseball cards have become too gimmicky and even if they weren't, the player's signatures are practically illegible. That's one of the reasons why I started my '53 Topps project; Sy Berger actually put effort into designing the set, and the signatures from that era are almost as nice as the cards themselves.
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Signed 1953 Topps set: 264/274 (96.35 %) |
#8
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I've always been curious with the sustainability of this industry with the younger generations. Will they continue to drive an interest in sports memorabilia?
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#9
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When I got in to collecting in 5th grade (~10 years ago) there were a few other kids who collected baseball cards, all modern stuff. Now, I know of one other guy my age who collects autographs, and that's it.
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Signed 1953 Topps set: 264/274 (96.35 %) |
#10
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The hobby
I do believe that the hobby of autograph collecting (baseball in particular) will continue to grow over time as it has in the past, but perhaps there will be a lull or decline in value in certain era's/players based on fans from that era passing away as well as simple supply and demand. The players like Ruth, Gehrig, Cobb, Dimaggio, Williams, Mantle, Mays, Aaron, etc. will continue to be highly collected, but perhaps Hall of Famers with less mystique around them such as Mathews, Drysdale, Killebrew, etc. will stall or be less appreciated. I can't see people just stopping cold turkey...relics have been around forever. The issue of forgeries is a major concern, but it has been around for a long time (an issue in any business, whether cards, autographs, art, watches, etc.).
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I believe that collecting goes in ebb and flow cycles. However in the past it was just a cycle , however I believe that the next cycle which is ongoing as we speak is not just a natural cycle but also one influenced by many outside factors as well. These include the cancellation of the 1994 World Series which made many collectors stop collecting , thereby preventing a continuation of collecting for that generation and the next generation, but also preventing the passing down of collecting to future generations; the high price of packs of cards and the inclusion of insert cards making the desirable cards out of the reach for young collectors, the lack of player interaction with fans,especially the young fans who are needed to continue the collecting hobby; the late starting times for the post season which prevents kids from watching the game or at times its conclusion( so they don 't see many times late inning heroics), the scandals involving players who used to be role models and heroes; the tainted hobby with fraud, scams, and forgeries common place; and the lack of the neighborhood card shop and card shows.
My 2 boys ( 11 and17 )care nothing about collecting, but thankfully at times they will go into my memorabilia rooms and ask questions about players or items. In the area we live there is one collector under 40 that I know of. I do agree that the numbers of younger collectors seems to be visibly decreasing. As far as HOFer autograph collecting I believe that people may specialize their HOF autograph collections and not try to get them all due to the cost, the amount of forgeries appearing in the market, and that collectors are now realizing that no one will ever be able to complete the full set. |
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As probably the youngest person on net 54 (Im a 19yr old college sophomore) I think the industry is bright and does have a bright future but is held back among the younger generations for various reasons.
1. The Internet has killed many neighborhood style shops. 2. The economy still hasn't caught up to pre 2007 levels and that can really hold people back. 3. This might be the biggest reason of them all and that is the emergence of Football as the #1 sport and the allure of stars in basketball (I despise basketball). For example I have a close friend and for christmas he received a tom brady and peyton manning signed football while in past generations that would have most likely been a baseball related item. As you grow older I think more and more of our generation will appreciate baseball and become attached to this hobby. Please don't forget how expensive college is and the loans young people have to take on today and if you go into grad or medical school then those bills become even greater. If lets say I try to become a doctor in a certain field it could take me up to age 28 to finish school and then I would have to repay loans which takes a while. My last point is I think NFL Films under Ed and Steve Sabol has done a much better job than MLBs branch. In the end collecting is not dying and I think will continue to grow into greater and greener pastures but give the younger generations time. |
#13
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The bottom line is people will always end up with what is collectible. Wagner and Cobb, Ruth and Gehrig, Williams and DiMaggio, Mantle, ect. Sports will always be popular. People will always collect. The hobby will survive, at least vintage will. |
#14
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"The hobby will survive, at least vintage will."
I agree with you, but the lack of young people collecting has hurt the hobby. Just for curiosity sake " vintage" is a relative term without any true definition as to year , what would your time frame for vintage be? Anyone care to share their time span for vintage? |
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Another thing that I think hurts the hobby aside from the demise of card stores is that drugstores and the like don't carry cards anymore. I was in Walmart today, and their baseball cards were kept with the cigarettes--behind a counter where your average kid would never go. I really think the card companies have lost their way, with all the inserts and chase cards and whatnot. Buying a pack of baseball cards should not be 'gambling-for-kids'; the cards themselves should be the point. I'd like to see Topps come up with some creative original designs for a change. No more ripping off Allen & Ginter designs, or the old sets of the 1930's-60's. Back in the 1950's, once Sy Berger had whittled his designs down to three or four, he would go to the elementary school that was a few blocks from Topps headquarters, show his designs to the kids and go with what they liked best. We haven't seen that level of care from Topps in a long time, really since they bought out Bowman.
__________________
Signed 1953 Topps set: 264/274 (96.35 %) |
#17
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I collect as a hobby not an investment or to flip and slab and resell. Back in the 60's I used to buy autographs from a guy named Max who some of you old timers knew. Ruth for $35, guys like Jimmy Collins and other rare HOFers. Unfortunately I also sold them all in the 1960's. I now see certain trends. There are a limited number of set collectors of the older sets from the 1950's (except maybe 52 topps). I used to collect the 55 Bowman set but about 2 years ago I decided to just collect HOFers and Jewish players. I sold off most of the set but held the umps. When I say someone sell off about 20 of the umps on ebay for over $20,000 I decided to let mine go and use the $ for more HOFers. The $20000 was because 2 guys with deep pockets had a bidding war. When I listed mine there was no bidding war and I got maybe $3500 as did a similar lot that sold by legendary. The younger collectors won't have an interest in this material other than select players in the set.
I think the # of collectors willing to pay lots of $ for obscure players to complete older sets is limited and will decrease even more with time. Same with specialized collectors like I collect every Jewish player. All I need now are cup of coffee guys from the 1920's or regular players from before then. If some come up tho I won't pay exhorbitant prices and neither will anyone else tho in the past a few people might have. Rare HOFers will do well. Easy to get deceased one have taken a hit but I don' think they will go down any further. I can't imagine these "rare" modern insert cards of mediocre players will hold their value at all. It is more like gambling and it is hard to say about guys like Miguel Cabrera etc who go for a few hundred dollars and will be around 70 more years to sign. As an IP collector I still see young kids getting autographs tho alot of them are sent by their dads who want the autograph and know the kid has a better chance of getting it. These kids push and shove in front of you and it is a farce. there are some young collectors who are serious and respectful too but most of the people you see are post 30 years old and most of those are post 50. The # of fakes being authenticated- balls and vintage cards has been very disturbing recently- anywhere from 33 Goudeys to awful examples of Koufax etc. This makes me want to get out of the hobby at times as I want to buy them and trust the slabber but just can't. It is a great hobby but a tough one and with young people getting into more high tech stuff the hobby will continue to take a hit but continue to exist. Most kids that love baseball don't know history and would rather have a current scrub players autograph than Satchel Paige. My son batboyed for team USA when Frank Robinson was manager. Players included Wainwright, Mauer, etc- a high % made the majors. Alot of the players on the team didn't know that Frank ever played ball. Collect for pleasure and for the hunt and for meeting some great folks along the way |
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I was a 3 autograph a day fatso, until I found AA. Autographs Anonymous.
AA can help you. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T9B9ZiOd2Cc |
#19
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I agree a 100%. You will meet some great people with interesting stories along the way, and there is no deadline on collecting.
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