NonSports Forum

Net54baseball.com
Welcome to Net54baseball.com. These forums are devoted to both Pre- and Post- war baseball cards and vintage memorabilia, as well as other sports. There is a separate section for Buying, Selling and Trading - the B/S/T area!! If you write anything concerning a person or company your full name needs to be in your post or obtainable from it. . Contact the moderator at leon@net54baseball.com should you have any questions or concerns. When you click on links to eBay on this site and make a purchase, this can result in this site earning a commission. Affiliate programs and affiliations include, but are not limited to, the eBay Partner Network. Enjoy!
Net54baseball.com
Net54baseball.com
ebay GSB
T206s on eBay
Babe Ruth Cards on eBay
t206 Ty Cobb on eBay
Ty Cobb Cards on eBay
Lou Gehrig Cards on eBay
Baseball T201-T217 on eBay
Baseball E90-E107 on eBay
T205 Cards on eBay
Baseball Postcards on eBay
Goudey Cards on eBay
Baseball Memorabilia on eBay
Baseball Exhibit Cards on eBay
Baseball Strip Cards on eBay
Baseball Baking Cards on eBay
Sporting News Cards on eBay
Play Ball Cards on eBay
Joe DiMaggio Cards on eBay
Mickey Mantle Cards on eBay
Bowman 1951-1955 on eBay
Football Cards on eBay

Go Back   Net54baseball.com Forums > Net54baseball Main Forum - WWII & Older Baseball Cards > Net54baseball Vintage (WWII & Older) Baseball Cards & New Member Introductions

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 04-29-2005, 06:40 AM
Archive Archive is offline
Administrator
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 58,359
Default baseball card set prices 1980 - date

Posted By: Gilbert Maines



The other evening I was reviewing again Lew Lipsett’s Old Judge periodicals from the ‘80s, and I came across an analysis of prices which he conducted in 1987 which defined the trends for the period since 1980. His summary revealed that a strengthening in the prices for Mint cards with a corresponding weakening in the prices for vg/ex and even a greater weakening in those cards which grade f/g was evident throughout the seven year interval. This relationship was presented as a change in percentage of Mint value for the lesser grades. That is, in 1980 there was not a lot of difference in the prices for cards graded Mint, vg/ex or f/g. The actual difference for selected pre-war cards was: vg/ex ran about 65% of Mint value, and f/g ran about 30% of Mint value. This difference in values during this period, results in a 1987 status being 36% of Mint for vg/ex and 11% of Mint for f/g cards. In other words, during the seven years between 1980 and 1987 vg/ex cards lost almost half of their value and f/g cards lost more than half their value when related to mint cards.

I then was curious about what has happened since that time and pulled out some old Beckett price guides (which was the reference that he used), and a new one, and compared the performance of card values for the sets which were selected to portray the card market. The expansion of this study to the present indicates a continuation of the widening trend applied to between grade prices until just before the 1990s. The f/g values bottomed out around 6% of Mint and vg/ex dropped to about one third Mint, before both grades turned around. Currently, for pre-war cards, the between grade price gap is shrinking. This resurgence in strength of the lesser grades has resulted in vg/ex cards commanding prices relative to Mint cards approximately equal to those levels which existed in 1980. The f/g cards have achieved about half of the value relative to Mint grade which they had in 1980.

So then, the relative values of vg/ex and f/g cards dropped substantially from 1980 – 1990, and the vg/ex have fully rebounded, while the f/g have made up about half of the ground which they have lost compared to mint values.

Lew then identified the appreciation rate applicable during the 1980 – 1987 period in a tabular format.
Please note: Lipsett’s study included post-war cards, and so did my expansion of his effort. These cards have performed somewhat differently than the pre-war cards. There were only five sets used by Lipsett to characterize the pre-war market: R319, T3, T205, T206,E145. So, none of this is a comprehensive research project, nor was it intended to be. In any event, Lew’s prewar data and my extractions and interpolations from later Beckett guides are presented below with the focus on card value appreciation.

Percent of appreciation: ( ) = negative appreciation, ie. Loss – full card sets.

R319 (Goudey)--1981-1987-------1984-1988--------1988-1991---------1991-2004
Mint--------------150-------------528--------------189--------------(59)
Vg-ex--------------76-------------417--------------250---------------(1)
F/g----------------43-------------145--------------313---------------143

T3-------------1981-1987--------1984-1988--------1988-1991---------1991-2004
Mint--------------150-------------304--------------145--------------no data
Vg-ex--------------40-------------180--------------178--------------no data
F/g---------------(25)--------------0--------------156--------------no data

T205----------1981-1987--------1984-1988-------1988-1991---------1991-2004
Mint--------------700-------------636--------------212--------------130
Vg-ex-------------256-------------417--------------250--------------200
F/g---------------122-------------167--------------275--------------341

T206----------1981-1987--------1984-1988-------1988-1991--------1991-2004
Mint--------------460-------------594--------------204---------------0
Vg-ex-------------243-------------178--------------222-------------196
F/g----------------50-------------178--------------250-------------295

E145 CJs------1981-1987--------1984-1988--------1988-1991-------1991-2004
Mint---------------20-------------330--------------215-------------155
Vg-ex-------------(30)------------185--------------260-------------247
F/g---------------(63)-----------(95)--------------319-------------376

Now friends: please realize that there could be errors in data entry or calculated values in all information presented above. Although I’ve tried to eliminate that possibility, I would imagine that I haven’t been totally successful. So, if you want anything verified or methods explained, please ask. And if you can offer any corrections or other enhancements, please do.

I did come across a few interesting data points while assembling the information required for this brief assessment. One is that since 1991 Mint grade t206 sets have not changed in price. Another is that since 1991 R319s are down in all grades except f/g – most notably in Mint where the set lost about 40% of its value since 1991. Also, a financial guy once told me that a “good” investment was one which doubled every seven years. The T205, T206 and CJs in f/g grade are the only sets in this field which have approximated that performance level since the 90s. But, we must bear in mind that even if I have made no errors in the data presented here, it is information generated from Beckett price guides – this publication is one which some feel does not have a history of prioritizing updating the prewar prices it publishes.

Please share any observations you may generate if any of this information is of interest to you. I found this stuff very interesting, but then again, I imagine that those whose collecting focus includes investment potential, already are well aware of the market’s performance over the past few decades.

Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 04-29-2005, 06:49 AM
Archive Archive is offline
Administrator
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 58,359
Default baseball card set prices 1980 - date

Posted By: warshawlaw

garbage in, garbage out

No offense, but the only way to really gauge performance is to look at actual sales, not someone's opinion as to prices. Without knowing what factors were used to calculate the Beckett's prices and how they were weighted, you cannot draw any conclusions. You also have to bear in mind that transactions are all over the place, whereas averages are of necessity somewhere in the middle.

I think the market for vintage cards is more robust, especially over the years since ebay and major auctions every week (it seems), than is reflected in a Becketts.

Reply With Quote
Reply



Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
WTB: 1980-81 Topps basketball singles for my set Archive Basketball / Cricket / Tennis Cards Forum 4 04-20-2009 04:28 PM
What set is this from? It's not a baseball card but from multisport set? Archive Net54baseball Vintage (WWII & Older) Baseball Cards & New Member Introductions 1 02-13-2007 07:18 PM


All times are GMT -6. The time now is 02:24 PM.


ebay GSB