Who Are The Hobby's Most Influential New Collectors

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Posted By: Bruce Dorskind

Over the course of the past two years, a plethora of distinguished collections
have been sold at public auction and privately.

For many years there has been a group of a dozen or so "major collectors"
whose energy, connections and financial resources drove the prices
of high profile, high grade pre-WWII baseball cards.

Whilst there are still a handful of Board Members who are major spenders
($250,000+) a year on cards, and we are all too familiar with our friends
the Three Whales, we wonder who the 'new players" are.

And more importantly where they are focusing their buying efforts?

We have noted a dearth of ultra high grade pre-war cards on E Bay.
We note that the truly rare cards continue to obtain record prices.

Last week we met with a major auction house owner who told us about
three new customers who had each spent in excess of $2.5 million
this year (all on pre-war cards)

Who are the new players? How are they shaping the future of the hobby?
Will the rare high grade card market, like the market for yachts and impressionist
paintings (hardly in the same ballpark) manage to avoid the impact of the
bear market and economic downturn?

Where are all the new "players" coming from?


Bruce Dorskind
America's Toughest Want List

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Posted By: Dan Bretta

The Lotto?

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Posted By: MVSNYC

"Last week we met with a major auction house owner who told us about
three new customers..."


"Who are the new players?"



Why didn't you just ask him for their names?

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Posted By: Rob D.

Lol

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Posted By: Steve

Got nothin but bad influence in this forum.

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Posted By: leon

I represent that remark .....I would say the most influential is difficult to state. And I am not sure it really matters. All that matters to me is who is bidding against me.....

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Posted By: Rhett Yeakley

Dang! I just missed the $250,000 threshold last year!!! I guess I'm not as influential as I once thought!
-Rhett

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Posted By: JimB

I think TBob must be one of them. Whenever he starts collecting a set, the prices immediately go up.
JimB

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Posted By: paulstratton

Since I'm a chinrest collector I can't even fathom spending 2.5 mil in one year on pre-war cards. That being said, I guess you have to invest your money somewhere and since everything else except oil and precious metals is tanking, it might not be the worst move in history.

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Posted By: Rob D.

It is kind of revealing that Bruce (and many others, to be sure) would define the most "influential" collectors as those who spend the most money. My definition would lean more toward those who have significant knowledge (and share it).

(Not that a collector can't spend a ton of money and be knowledgeable, of course.)

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Posted By: Red

Are you sure they're not just feeding you a bunch of mumbo jumbo nonsense in order to get you to consign. Those auction houses will tell you whatever you want to hear in order to get their hooks into your stuff.

The number don't add up.

"Last week we met with a major auction house owner who told us about
three new customers who had each spent in excess of $2.5 million
this year (all on pre-war cards)"

3 collectors spending a total of $7.5 million on pre-war cards with one auction house. Was anybody else able to win a single card?

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Posted By: Bruce Dorskind

The Auction House with whom we met did say that they had 3 collectors
who spent $2.5 million last year. That amount was the total the collectors
spent on bb cards- not the total they spent with the auction house.

Said auction house did represent several private collection sales which
involved these "new collectors."

We don't know who they are, where they live or what they do. The auction
house would not comment other than to say that there were some significant
new major players in the market.

We have no reason to doubt their word. We are just surprised when people who
are not long-time hobbyists "jump in" and spend considerable sums in what
is a relatively small and rather illiquid market.

Bruce Dorskind
America's Toughest Want List

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Posted By: peter spaeth

One wonders sometimes how many of these high grade rarities, like the T206 Wagner, are potentially altered.

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Posted By: jeffdrum

nah, nah, nah, ..........it ain't me babe

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Posted By: boxingcardman

Influential = able to have a powerful effect on people and what they do

What you've described would be best labeled "profligate" = wildly extravagant

Sic Gorgiamus Allos Subjectatos Nunc

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Posted By: Jodi Birkholm

The word "influential" has two meanings in this case. I surmise that Bruces were trying to convey the other meaning, as in "being influential to the prices of cards/memorabilia by placing high bids". That certainly does have an influence on all of us (although I love Wolfie's personal feelings on the subject!).

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Posted By: Alan

Is it OK that I'm one of the poorest collectors, who spends probably the least amount of money on this hobby ? Can I still collect ? Am I less of a person ?

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Posted By: leon

After Dallas QB quarteback Tony Romo signed his 60+ million dollar recent contract, he was asked about it on the news. He said, laughingly "I am a much better person now".......

I am not sure money and influential go hand in hand except to drive up prices, as has been mentioned.

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Posted By: Paul S

Tony Romo got $60+ mil? Geez, what has he ever won? And who did he ever influence? Jessica Simpson, maybe.

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Posted By: T206Collector

...attempts to make celebrities out of people who spend a lot of money on baseball cards should be directed towards people that actually do something useful or entertaining with their time.

It might be more interesting to know what they're collecting than how much money they spend on cardboard.

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

Visit http://www.t206collector.com for signed deadball card galleries, articles and more!

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Posted By: barrysloate

Bruce- if I or anyone else knew the names of these three collectors, why would we post them on the board? I would keep their identity secret forever if I could.

And maybe one or more of them bid in my auction, but how would I know if they are new to the hobby or have been around for awhile? There are a lot of people with a lot of money, and it is clearly fashionable these days to spend it on baseball memorabilia. How else to explain an economy where home prices are plummeting, the stock market is tanking, gas is so expensive, companies are cutting jobs by the tens of thousands...and baseball cards are still as strong as ever?

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Posted By: Bruce Dorskind

The rare baseball card market is quite fragile and thinly traded.

Our best guess is that less than $50 million is spent on pre WW II baseball
cards. if one limits the discussion to individual items with a
value of $1000 or more.

With that thesis as our base, the influx of $7.5 million represents 15% of the market.

Most items that sell for $5,000 or more draw less than 5 bidders at that threshold.

Accordingly, an influx of a large amount of money from a few sources will
greatly influence the market.

The most knowledgeable collectors in the hobby, perhaps there are two dozen,
know a great deal about the history of certain cards, companies or remember
stories about collectors...but they have little influence on the direction of the market.

Much like the new power of Sovereign Wealth on Wall Street, a few sources are
now shaping the market.

It has long been our view (since Copeland) and certainly since the web became omnipresent,
that a the addition or loss of interest of 3-7 collectors will be the single biggest factor
in influencing the value of rare cards.

Some may argue otherwise, but we believe if as a few as eight major collectors lost interest
that prices would drop as much as 30% on certain issues and certainly the prices of PSA
registry sets, in Grades 8 and 9 would implode.

Certainly there are factors other than money which influence any hobby. However, this
hobby is unregulated, packed with many obscure issues with limited availability and
controlled whether one admits it or not, by a few suppliers.

It is not difficult to sell cards or buy cards in public auctions. It is, however, as Mastro,
REA, Goodwin and others will tell you to identify and obtain world class collections.
One factor that serves as a catalyst for brining said collections to market is the
record prices REA (and a few others) achieve. Which is why we believe that it is important
to understand where the "new collectors" are and where their interests lie.

Bruce Dorskind
America's Toughest Want List

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Posted By: Jason Carota

My thoughts are along the lines of Rob D's.

I believe the most influential new collector is the one who gives a common, low grade T206 to another collector whose idea of "vintage" dates back to the early 80's. Along with the card, information about the T206 set, as-well-as other prewar sets is passed along. A fire is then lit, and a new collector has entered the pre (and post) war hobby.

IMO, the big money spenders/ultra-high grade market is a microcosm of the hobby, therefore not a true influence of the hobby as a whole.

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Posted By: MVSNYC

Jason- very well said.

i think some of the most influential collectors are people like Ted Z, Scot R, Brian W, etc...who are constantly pushing the envelope and (with their sleeves rolled-up) are trying to solve (set/issue) mysteries and inform others.


very influential and inspiring

MS

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Posted By: barrysloate

I too agree that today's grassroots collector is most important, as many of them will progress and become major collectors in the future.

However, I believe Bruce is more interested in who the new major players are. It's a fair question, because if one were to sink big dollars into the hobby, it would be good to know how deep the pool of bidders is for high ticket items. If the market is in fact thin at the top, then making a major investment in these high end cards would be risky.

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Posted By: Tom Nieves

http://cgi6.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewBidItems&userid=msohn&sort=10&page=1&rows=200&completed=1&all=0

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Posted By: Bruce Dorskind

Whilst we acknowledge that certain old time collectors are generous
in the sharing of knowledge, what percentage of the winning and under-bidders
in the REA, Sotheby's and Mastro auctions regularly read the Board.

What impact does the sharing of knowledge about the relative
rarity of the back of a low grade T 205 have on the price
of a PSA 8 US Caramel of Ruth?

Of the $50 million+ spent on ultra rare high grade cards, how many
of those dollars are influenced by knowledgeable grass roots collectors?

We certainly appreciate and understand the contribution of collectors
like Ted Z but the question is who is influencing the market not who
is contributing knowledge and helping the new young collector.

Let's stick to the issue of influencing the market... certainly those who
claim that the top of the end of the market is only a small fraction and
not important are out of touch with reality. Remember 2% of the population
in the US controls more than 20% of the wealth... we wonder what their
relative influence is on the US economy?

Bruce Dorskind
America's Toughest Want List

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Posted By: pas

Is he "influential" or perhaps under the influence?

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Posted By: davidcycleback

A collector with a $50 budget who writes an excellent new-information hobby article for Old Cardboard can be more influential than a collector who behind-the-scenes spends $1 million. In fact, the article may greatly influence what the $1 million dollar collector purchases and how much he pays.

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Posted By: Steve Dawson

Jeez, I'm 45 and I haven't made anywhere near $2.5 million total in my entire life!


Steve

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Posted By: John

Bruce,

With all due respect you are way off on those last statements. I have a very good friend I went to school with she is an art appraiser and personal buying consultant to arguably the top 20 art collectors in the world today. Not only does she make a very handsome living, but it is her direct input and knowledge passed on to the very collectors who are financing these purchases that in turn drives the art market.

There are many factors in all markets that drive them in all directions; it isn’t as simple as the guy with the wallet drives the market. I would think someone even with your so called pedigree could grasp that.

In fact auction houses that pass on info are driving the market with knowledge Bruce, if Barry had a 10 million dollar item tomorrow, perhaps he could not afford to buy it himself but he could certainly play a role in influencing the person who could…did he not just play a role in the direction of the market?

It’s seems to me sometimes that you want to live vicariously thru wealthy folks and you seem to fixate on this perhaps I’m wrong. However you do over the simplify our hobby IMO, it is bigger than a few rich folk trust me it has to be anything that is driven by a handful of folks is no good and ultimately will have no stability. Imagine the auto industry with only Ferrari & Rolls Royce....

I do agree with T206collector on this I tend to focus on the collection and the person behind it not so much the amount of cash spent and where did he get that money? These guys aren't rockstars, just collectors with deeper pockets.

We have several examples of those collectors here, these guys buy cards I could never afford but it’s their passion, collections and the items they purchase that inspire me, not what they do for a living or their given bank account statements.

Cheers,

John

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Posted By: boxingcardman

Perhaps no one ever told you, but it is in very poor taste to constantly talk about money. Why don't you try showing us a few of the wonderous high end cards you say you have? That would buy you far more good will here than all this breathless man-love you show us for your "whales."

Sic Gorgiamus Allos Subjectatos Nunc

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Posted By: Jodi Birkholm

John,

I really enjoyed reading, and agree with, many of your points. The "Cliffs Notes" version of your missive might read something like, "There are more collectors buying $20 cards than there are whales spending seven figures at a toss. Taking this into consideration, who are the true cogs that turn this hobby?".

Bruces are thinking on a different level; both points of view have merit and are deserving of an audience.

Jodi

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Posted By: Bruce Dorskind

John


We are sure your classmate is an important factor in the Art Market

To the best of our knowledge, there is no one in the baseball card
market that serves a similar role.

The dealers and auction houses who choose to "advise" selected collectors
have a vested interest in said collectors acquiring the items they own
or are selling.

We assume that your friend is "auction house neutral" Certainly art
consultants influence the art market.

In baseball the auction houses influence the market to the extent that
they uncover and offer material to the public. They exercise greater influence
when they sell said material in an auction as opposed to privately.

However, the direction of the market (let's not be so foolish to deny that
the value of items is what has drawn so many new collectors to the hobby)
is influenced by what people are willing to pay.

If this was a market, as it was when we first began collecting in 1975, where it
was rare for an item to sell for more than a few thousand dollars (exception
Wagner, Lajoie etc) many of the collectors with very large collections would
not he in the hobby. There are certainly exceptions, including yours truly.
Long time collectors like Keith Oberman and Jay Miller also were not drawn in
by the value.

But the market and the interest and the international recognition in the press
and the countless millionaires who are now "collectors" has a great deal to
do with the fact that the prices of rare baseball cards have exploded and continue
to rise against every other economic trend

Bruce Dorskind
America's Toughest Want List

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Posted By: davidcycleback

Influence on $$ means little worth talking about to me. Influence on hobby knowledge, understanding and appreciation of the material means something.

People who are consumed mostly by the monetary value of things come across as shallow to me. They come across about as deep as 13 year old girls consumed by the latest Hollywood fashion trends.

What collector has the most direct influence on card prices? Some idiot with more dollars than brain cells, likely.

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Posted By: Bruce Dorskind

David

We are happy money means so little to you..

By the way those people who are behind all those Hollywood trends and
who have managed to figure out how to get every shallow thirteen year
old girl to buy certain kinds of t-shirts or shoes are multi-millionaires living
in Beverly Hills and Pacific Heights and spending their shallow lives
on private jets while hundreds of thousands of other Southern Californians
dine at McDonalds and watch the banks seize their homes.


Bruce Dorskind
America's Toughest Want List

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Posted By: Michael Steele

I always read Bruce(s) posts with amusement. Not sure how many Bruce(s) there are but I have to give him credit for not once has Bruce(s) used "I" in a post. That is remarkable.

Kidding aside, Bruce(s) represents a very small fraction of our great hobby and is very passionate about the hobby and has been for several decades. IMO there is nothing wrong with the infusion of these million dollar people and the money that comes into our hobby. I would think some of that money trickles down to us bottom feeders.

With that said, it is the passion and great knowledge of the board members who post tremendous threads that are full of passion and knowledge that drives this hobby. Look at this way, if all of the whales went away, would we still have a hobby? Answer: Yes. However, if experienced and knowledgeable collectors went away in mass, would we still have a hobby? Answer: Probably not.

Regards
Michael

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Posted By: Jodi Birkholm

Bruces just enjoy being a humorous, ingratiating thorn in the side of this message board. Take them with a grain of salt and have a good chuckle--I always have. Thanks Bruces!

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Posted By: barrysloate

Many wealthy collectors participate in my auctions but I have no sense of why they collect or how much they know. I think it would be wrong to generalize. Bruce asks interesting questions, all geared toward the monetary aspect of the hobby, but they can't be answered because each of the wealthy collecors has his own reason for buying baseball cards. Maybe it's an investment, maybe he is a baseball scholar, maybe he is looking for something to bond with his son. Who knows.

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Posted By: Rob D.

Bruce,

The title of your post asks who are the hobby's most influential new collectors. Midthread you changed the topic to which collectors influence the market. I think there is a difference, and the choice of words is not simply hair-splitting.

Quite possibly to you (and others, to be fair) the mere buying and selling of cards defines the hobby. That's fine. To many others the hobby not only includes obtaining cards and memorabilia but also the sharing of information, "war stories" and other social aspects. It's not always about money.

Now that your thread is on track and clearly defined, I'm sure you'll uncover the answers you seek.

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Posted By: barrysloate

Bruce- your last post is a little creepy. I occasionally eat at McDonald's, but I sure hope they don't seize my house.

Looking down at others who have less than we do isn't such a good thing.

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Posted By: Paul

I would have to say me. I am so influencial that I now have a group. We will inform the board of our want list (world's toughest) shortly.

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Posted By: jeffdrum

YAWN! I think I'll go to McDonalds now.

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Posted By: pas

Barry I thought of you as a no trans fat kind of guy.

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Posted By: J Levine

How about this Bruce...the three new collectors are actually completely meaningless. In the past year I talked to a person who loves baseball but had not bought a baseball card in 25 years since he was 10 years old. After talking to him and showing him some of my collection he went out and bought nearly $25,000 worth of T205s and T206s. Does that make him influential? Does it make me influential since I was the one giving him advice on what to buy? Does it make the dealer influential in selling the cards and reporting the profit?

Influence is often mislabeled (as Adam said far better than I could). Knowledge is power. Money is power. Which exerts more influence. The person with unlimited funds but no knowledge or the person with limited funds but proper knowledge? Hard to answer but I know where to spend my hard earned money.

Just tired of Bruce making my pittance of a card budget seem like it is insignificant(which has gone down nearly every year because our culture still refuses to acknowledge teachers as valuable...which is a whole other subject...).

Seriously Bruce. Maybe I missed it but when was the last time you published any article or gave any insight into the hobby other than letting us know that your money is huge and your collection valuable. I look at people like Tim Newcomb, TBob, Ted K., Adam W. as far more influential as their research has led to wonderful new insights into the hobby I love.

Every time I hear you talk about your collection as "we" I get the distinct impression that "we" includes your large ego, your two gigantic balls and nothing else.

I beg you to please just stop with the monetary analysis.

Joshua

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Posted By: Rawn Hill

I have two members that are the most influencial as they have been very kind in their advice and gifts. I only have a small fraction of the above stated budget to spend on my "HOBBY", as such I am but an ameba in a sea of whales. Thanks Dan and Steve, once again, I shall be greatful to you and all those other NET54 members that have aided in my collection.

Rawn

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Posted By: Denny Walsh

Joshua, Well said my fellow cardboard loving friend!

"Every time I hear you talk about your collection as "we" I get the distinct impression that "we" includes your large ego, your two gigantic balls and nothing else."

Only, wouldn't that mean 2 large egos or more? & I don't think 2 gigantic balls are enough when the bruces are involved!

I also think JODI has nailed the Bruses' entertainment factor. Nothing like a gooooood laugh when you know your beaters aren't influencing anyone but the paper drive lady

Just the thoughts of little Irishman who plays with beat up old baseball cards, & likes to listen, learn & laugh....

Life's Grand,
Denny Walsh

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Posted By: davidcycleback

It should be noted that the traditional definition of collectors does not include resellers or investors. Someone buying something so he can resell it later for a profit would not be defined as a collector. So many of the big bucks buyers would be removed from consideration as 'influential or influencing collector,' as they wouldn't be classified as collectors.

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Posted By: Jodi Birkholm

Daivd,

You CAN be both, however! That's what you are, and what I am (and what most collectors are). Most collectors buy items with the hopes of turning the piece over at a profit sometime later on (many times when an upgrade is secured)--upgrading is the lifeblood of the hobby!

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Posted By: Rawn Hill

Jodi, there I tend to disagree. The collectors that I have been associated with, collect for their own entertainment and occasionally to show their collection and not to turn a profit. Guess it's the old collector vs. invester debate.

Rawn