Future of the Hobby, Opinion & Satire

[HRBAKER]

I'm quite the opposite, I can watch any game at any time. Matter of fact I was having a conversation with someone yesterday about how I couldn't care less about the NFL until all the baseball was done with. I know that plants me in the SOLID minority.

[perezfan]

Originally Posted by HRBAKER

I'm quite the opposite, I can watch any game at any time. Matter of fact I was having a conversation with someone yesterday about how I couldn't care less about the NFL until all the baseball was done with. I know that plants me in the SOLID minority.

Same exact scenario for me... but also realize we're the vast minority. Listening to Mike & Mike in the morning, you'd assume that Football comprised 90% of American sports viewing, with Basketball at 5%, Baseball at 3% and "all other" making up the final 2%.

[MooseDog]

In response to losing two jobs at the end of 2011 I opened up a consignment shop. I have learned quickly that the market for "stuff" is rapidly drying up. People who come in say their kids have no interest in their collectibles. They only care about video games and money.

I have some contacts with a couple of local estate auction houses and they say the top end is where it's at. The IPO rich and the Wall Streeters have nearly unlimited cash and freely spend it on things to show off but the mid and lower end of all markets is all about bargain hunters and flippers.

In terms of autographs, with few exceptions, autographs of today's athletes and celebrities is a scribble. You can't tell one from the other. The thing that drove me to the hobby was the elegance of the handwriting - think Chas Gehringer - but today's autographs are a joke. I can't see anyone being hooked on the hobby getting an autograph of someone they can't even tell who it is (the woman in the car notwithstanding - she just wanted ANYONE). This can't help the hobby long term.

And given the prevalence of electronic communication it is entirely possible that good handwriting will be a "lost art".

I think nice vintage pieces of iconic stars will always be in demand, certain team collectors will probably always look for some obscure names but I think in the long run on the low end there is going to be a lot more supply than demand.

The other killer is the sheer volume of forgeries.

[HRBAKER]

Submitted for your consideration:



BTW, in case you're interested there is a Wil Myers Private Signing on an auto site coming up @ $38 for cards.
If you get in now that's only $19 a letter!

[Mr. Zipper]

Originally Posted by MooseDog

I have some contacts with a couple of local estate auction houses and they say the top end is where it's at. The IPO rich and the Wall Streeters have nearly unlimited cash and freely spend it on things to show off but the mid and lower end of all markets is all about bargain hunters and flippers.

This is true for any hobby. Higher end material appreciates, and common, mass-produced material or material in lower grades stagnates. It applies across autographs, comics, cards, coins, etc.

I wish someone told me 20 years ago that one $250 item is way better than ten $25 items.

You'll never have a problem seeing a return and moving blue chip items. On the other hand, if it was something that was created as a "collectible"... good luck!

[JimStinson]

For clarification I don't think the "hobby" of collecting autographs is going away...its been around for a couple hundred years at least and will probably be around for a couple hundred more.

Just not in the mainstream and not at the price levels we've seen in the last two decades and certainly not strong enough to support the "satellite" businesses that have grown up around the hobby in general.

When a Christy Mathewson autograph sells for four times the price of an Abraham Lincoln autograph that should be a barometer that something is a little "off" and that the hobby itself is headed for a "correction"

When the real estate bubble burst , it wasn't just the high end houses it was everything ! And people did not stop buying houses they just didn't pay NEAR as much and didn't buy as many of them ...

And most of the Mortgage brokers and other enterprises that "Fed Off the Frenzy" just found another line of work.
_________________________
jim@stinsonsports.com

Vintage autographs For Sale Now
stinsonsports.com

[vintagechris]

On the subject of good handwriting, I was with a group of guys a few weeks ago and one said his 14 year old son who is an A student could not sign his name in cursive as they don't teach it in school any more. Another guy who works for the DMV said 50% of people who get their drivers license sign their name in print.

[travrosty]

there is a certain level that the speculators and investors will buy the autographs for so the market will never totally crash, but it certainly could take a hit. in the early 2000's when boxing autos really started going up, there was a point where a simple sonny liston signature on anything, a simple slip of paper, could not really be had in the retail market, ebay/dealers for under 900 dollars. It was about 900 dollars or you couldn't get one. Then when the recession hit and autograph took a hit, you could get one for 700, even 500 and I once saw one sell on ebay for 350 dollars, and it was a good Liston autograph. Now it has bolstered back up a bit but not at the high level mark, but I think some collectors join certain hobbies as adults. I started collecting boxing autographs in my 20's and didnt watch or following boxing much as a kid.

I know roman coin collectors didnt follow their favorite roman politician when they were a kid, but somewhere along the way they thought it would be fun to collect old roman coins. whether the market will be as strong for baseball autographs remain to be seen, but I think the biggest names will hold their value.

There is only a finite number of real babe ruth autographs in the hobby and even if the GROWTH of collectors slow down, the population increases as a whole and there might even be more collectors, just not as many as if the growth continued at its highest pace, yet there will still be the same number of Ruth autographs for the most part, (undiscdovered ones notwithstanding.)

I do think that card collecting is in for a bigger shock than autographs. The rare, old vintage cards will do okay, anything in the 80's 90's and newer will suffer i think.

There used to be an ad in the magazines showing Ken Griffey jr's rookie card for upper deck with the line "The Ken griffey junior college fund" with the hook that if you invested in Griffey rookie cards, in 20 or 30 years you could put your kids through college. didnt quite work out that way, and it's not Griffey's fault, he hit over 600 home runs. it's just they made millions of that card.