When to know the hobby is DIEing!

[1952boyntoncollector]

There are canaries in the coalmines as it were to show me when prices are really falling

one example would be to see any 1952 Topps PSA 8 card sell for less than $100.00 on ebay auction.....if you see that..post it

any other types of things?

[ALR-bishop]

I plan to go before the hobby does so I do not meditate much on the subject.

There may be some clues to the signs of the end coming in Revelations

[Laxcat]

Eyem knot shure. Maibee nevor.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by Laxcat

Eyem knot shure. Maibee nevor.

Eyem knot shure eeether. Wow you are soooo witty! here is a cookie for you..i mean eiuu..

[bnorth]

Types of thing I would look for are the apocalypse, super volcano erupting, global war, or maybe a giant meteor hitting the planet.

Seriously I have been hearing the hobby is dying since the end of the junk era. I doubt it will go away totally but will change like it has for many decades.
The only thing I see changing is the magic plastic holders will no longer be magic and prices will be closer to raw. I believe the insane prices will burst like the .COM bubble otherwise just another day in paradise.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by bnorth

Types of thing I would look for are the apocalypse, super volcano erupting, global war, or maybe a giant meteor hitting the planet.

Seriously I have been hearing the hobby is dying since the end of the junk era. I doubt it will go away totally but will change like it has for many decades.
The only thing I see changing is the magic plastic holders will no longer be magic and prices will be closer to raw. I believe the insane prices will burst like the .COM bubble otherwise just another day in paradise.

good points actually...so when we see Mike Schmidt 1974 PSA 10 not sell for $1000..that would be a start of it as it were

[pokerplyr80]

I think a really bad sign would be major price drops of key cards like 52 Mantle, 16 Ruth, 33 Ruth and Gehrig, t206 wagner, plank, cobb, etc. If these can't hold value surely the rest will be in trouble.

[begsu1013]

i am guessing the 52 8 we are talking about is a low series common, correct?

from my perspective, i've noticed that psa player sets are becoming more popular than year sets.

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by ALR-bishop

I plan to go before the hobby does so I do not meditate much on the subject.

There may be some clues to the signs of the end coming in Revelations

+1, Al. Also, maybe when you see REA's auction catalogs go back to the 7 or 8 pages of newsprint form they were in the '90's.

Best regards,

Larry

[Laxcat]

Thanks for noticing how witty I am!

Question: why do you even visit this forum? Hobby is dying, card prices are going to fall, hitting for the cycle is no big deal,blah, blah, blah....

You are an old curmudgeon; a dinosaur. I'm glad you won't be around for the next 30 years. You are exactly the type of person that keeps people from joining our great hobby. So why don't you just give all your cards to kids? Or, if you are afraid the bottom is going to fall out, sell them now.
If you got rid of all of your cards then we wouldn't have to read the drivel you type everyday.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by begsu1013

i am guessing the 52 8 we are talking about is a low series common, correct?

from my perspective, i've noticed that psa player sets are becoming more popular than year sets.

no ANY PSA 8 1952 topps........you cant get any 1952 topps psa 8 right now under $100......

[Gr8Beldini]

Been hearing that for decades. Been hoping for it to come true for decades. When the hobby "dies," I'm goin shopping for NM 1953 Topps cards. Not gonna hold my breath waiting for it though.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by Laxcat

Thanks for noticing how witty I am!

Question: why do you even visit this forum? Hobby is dying, card prices are going to fall, hitting for the cycle is no big deal,blah, blah, blah....

You are an old curmudgeon; a dinosaur. I'm glad you won't be around for the next 30 years. You are exactly the type of person that keeps people from joining our great hobby. So why don't you just give all your cards to kids? Or, if you are afraid the bottom is going to fall out, sell them now.
If you got rid of all of your cards then we wouldn't have to read the drivel you type everyday.

Ditto!

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by Laxcat

Thanks for noticing how witty I am!

Question: why do you even visit this forum? Hobby is dying, card prices are going to fall, hitting for the cycle is no big deal,blah, blah, blah....

You are an old curmudgeon; a dinosaur. I'm glad you won't be around for the next 30 years. You are exactly the type of person that keeps people from joining our great hobby. So why don't you just give all your cards to kids? Or, if you are afraid the bottom is going to fall out, sell them now.
If you got rid of all of your cards then we wouldn't have to read the drivel you type everyday.

Mark thanks for the kindness.

Look yall. I lost my temper. Happens. I'm keeping it out of the threads from now on.

Cheers
Matt

---heck you posted this a few days ago....now your recent post on this thread....hmmm the cycle repeats ...off your medication?

I don't care if all the cards lose value ..its a hobby...but the topic of cards losing their value is obviously an issue of discussion on this forum..you cant deny that......and yeah hitting for the cycle is no bid deal...glad you remembered that from another thread..i don't remember anything you said that was discussed or would care to remember to bring up 4 months later.....peace..
__________________

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by 1952boyntoncollector

Mark thanks for the kindness.

Look yall. I lost my temper. Happens. I'm keeping it out of the threads from now on.

Cheers
Matt

---heck you posted this a few days ago....now your recent post on this thread....hmmm the cycle repeats ...off your medication?

I don't care if all the cards lose value ..its a hobby...but the topic of cards losing their value is obviously an issue of discussion on this forum..you cant deny that......and yeah hitting for the cycle is no bid deal...glad you remembered that from another thread..i don't remember anything you said that was discussed or would care to remember to bring up 4 months later.....peace..
__________________

"Off your medication" Jake no reason to drop down to his level of name calling and unprovoked attacks.

[SAllen2556]

...when women figure out how to reproduce without any help from a man.

[begsu1013]

Originally Posted by 1952boyntoncollector

no ANY PSA 8 1952 topps........you cant get any 1952 topps psa 8 right now under $100......

ok, so what's the point here then?

[Laxcat]

I didn't lose my temper. Not my fault if you can't face the truth. Remind me again when you post anything positive? All you do is bellyache about how the hobby is DYING. Ever think you are a part of the problem?

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by Laxcat

I didn't lose my temper. Not my fault if you can't face the truth. Remind me again when you post anything positive? All you do is bellyache about how the hobby is DYING. Ever think you are a part of the problem?

All the time i post positive things, like the prettiest card i have seen being the ty cobb bat off shoulder...come to think of it...looks like you are the one that doesn't say anything positive...though you are sooo witty.....also admitted to losing your temper...but not this time ..denial is not just a river in Egypt...i never initiated an attack on you on any thread...heck you even attacked me on a thread i hadn't even posted anything on.....for which you did admit you lost your temper.

and as you say not my fault if you cant face the truth...if the hobby is DIEing...perhaps it could be perhaps not...but i can see you you wont face the truth if it is.........i just raised a question about any particular cards too look for...no harm in that....

there was an OP that said whats my point about 1952 Topps PSA 8s ever going for under 100$....my point was that would be an indicator of a market fall....another poster contributed to the thread and said he would look at whether the iconic cards like the 1952 topps, 1933 ruth etc started to fall on the same thread....i have not seen you contribute anything on this thread its just a thread man..relax, don't be angry..

[Laxcat]

Let me address something. Off my medication? So, if I disagree with your sour look on the hobby I must be crazy? For your information I have recently been taken off a few meds that I needed for depression and anxiety. I truly hope you never have had to or will experience what put me on my meds. I think it QUITE unnerving that you look at mental health as something to be throwing out at as a jab at someone.

So you have put the ball in my court. All I have to do is stand here and dribble and wait for your clock to run out.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by Laxcat

Let me address something. Off my medication? So, if I disagree with your sour look on the hobby I must be crazy? For your information I have recently been taken off a few meds that I needed for depression and anxiety. I truly hope you never have had to or will experience what put me on my meds. I think it QUITE unnerving that you look at mental health as something to be throwing out at as a jab at someone.

So you have put the ball in my court. All I have to do is stand here and dribble and wait for your clock to run out.

Again we disagree on the purposes of my posts...but that's fine you are entitled to that.

but yeah it does seem that your meds may of been a problem...actions are still actions no matter the reason to whoever in the recipient of the actions....but obviously i hope you are taking a step forward and everything works out...you will not see me initiate any direct attack on you ..i also keep the subject matter about cards or sometimes even jokes (see my chris rock lamar odom thread comment) ..you really cant say i am all negative...anyway good luck in your future collecting

[Laxcat]

Here's is something about baseball cards: I think you bellyache about how the hobby is dying hoping that someone believes you so that you can get your greedy hands on some cards.
Nope. Too late old man. Game on. Thinks for saying I'm crazy because I lost my 29 yo brother to the type of disease that usually takes old reprobates like you. Like I said: all I have to do to win is keep dribbling. Tick... Tick... Tick...

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by Laxcat

Here's is something about baseball cards: I think you bellyache about how the hobby is dying hoping that someone believes you so that you can get your greedy hands on some cards.
Nope. Too late old man. Game on. Thinks for saying I'm crazy because I lost my 29 yo brother to the type of disease that usually takes old reprobates like you. Like I said: all I have to do to win is keep dribbling. Tick... Tick... Tick...

eh i don't think this is the place to talk down card values in general...I sure as heck never negotiated a card with a seller on this forum saying the hobby is dieing so sell it for me for less.....i have also said several times that to me its a hobby and i am prepared for any losses..as hobby losses....again i not so sure you want to keep dribbling if losing the game unless you trying to make sure you cover the spread in a loss....tick tick..buzzer!

also you i am sorry for your loss but you really need to stop the name calling...ie. greedy.. (I also never said you are crazy, i said you lost your temper)

[tschock]

Originally Posted by 1952boyntoncollector

there was an OP that said whats my point about 1952 Topps PSA 8s ever going for under 100$....my point was that would be an indicator of a market fall

Of course it would, because the opposite of rise (and not staying the same) is fall. But the only thing that you can truly know from this is that PSA 8s for 1952 Topps have gone under $100. But.... Fall does not equate to Dying (spelled DYing).

Fall (could just as well) = Market correction, meaning that...

A ) Overpriced cards might not be overpriced anymore, or
B ) Collectors are "over" the idea that TPGs mean anything, or
C ) Some relative of Sy Berger has found 1000s of pristine 1952 Topps hi numbers that Sy gave to her many years ago but were stored in a mayonnaise jar on Funk and Wangnalls porch, or
D ) A myriad of other reasons.

I'm not saying that a fall as you noted does NOT indicate dying, just that a fall does not PROVE dying, which should be the point of the term "KNOW" in the title of the thread "When to know the hobby is DIEing!"

One could just as easily and esoterically argue that anything that is born or comes into being (such as a collector's market) begins to die the moment of inception. Just picking the nits that need to be picked.

[Billwinkle]

Originally Posted by 1952boyntoncollector

There are canaries in the coalmines as it were to show me when prices are really falling

one example would be to see any 1952 Topps PSA 8 card sell for less than $100.00 on ebay auction.....if you see that..post it

any other types of things?

I guess you would need to define what the "hobby" is first of all. There are definitely two camps on this matter. The monetary camp and the nostalgia camp.

If you are talking about the value or perceived value of your collection you would be sitting around the fire at the monetary camp. In my humble opinion this camp worries far to much about money to really enjoy the "hobby". I believe that the monetary camp suffers from a form of malaise that can only be cured when you "score or make a monetary killing" That in itself leads me to believe the "hobby" in general is sick but not dead. I can go on to explain my beliefs for several reasons. I will go into that later if anyone would like to debate that

Now over on nostalgia camp the s'mores are being passed around, the fire is crackling and the beers are sliding down just fine. As the population in general ages (yep I'm an old guy) the hobby is thriving. We baby boomers are getting back into the hobby because we all would like to have a piece of our childhood, we enjoy speaking about little known players that we watched a s a kid, or we have had a lifelong interest in whatever sport floats your boat (hockey then baseball for me). We also have some spare pocket change and the wisdom to spend it on items that we like within reason. We buy sell or trade with a different goal in mind. For me it is to complete sets I started as a kid, to rekindle the memories of Tim Horton and the powerful player he was, to remember Bobby Orr as one of the greatest. On the baseball side I enjoy listening to my brother talk about the greats he grew up watching or listening to, Bob Feller Willie Mays, Enos Slaughter, Berra and the Mick, Jackie Robinson as well as all the lesser known players. He sat around the radio and listen to anything baseball for decades, we were poor and didn't have a tv until the late 60's. Baseball for me was all about the the Pirates and the start of the Jays who I now follow intently. Yep I am a Canadian.

So in closing it depends on which camp you are going to this summer or winter. As we all know not all camps are the same!!!!!

[PolarBear]

This thread killed the hobby.

[ALR-bishop]

Good post Bill....at least for an old guy

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by tschock

Of course it would, because the opposite of rise (and not staying the same) is fall. But the only thing that you can truly know from this is that PSA 8s for 1952 Topps have gone under $100. But.... Fall does not equate to Dying (spelled DYing).

Fall (could just as well) = Market correction, meaning that...

A ) Overpriced cards might not be overpriced anymore, or
B ) Collectors are "over" the idea that TPGs mean anything, or
C ) Some relative of Sy Berger has found 1000s of pristine 1952 Topps hi numbers that Sy gave to her many years ago but were stored in a mayonnaise jar on Funk and Wangnalls porch, or
D ) A myriad of other reasons.

I'm not saying that a fall as you noted does NOT indicate dying, just that a fall does not PROVE dying, which should be the point of the term "KNOW" in the title of the thread "When to know the hobby is DIEing!"

One could just as easily and esoterically argue that anything that is born or comes into being (such as a collector's market) begins to die the moment of inception. Just picking the nits that need to be picked.

your opinion was well thought out...I do see the error of some of my generalities...I guess I used the term Dieing, (spell incorrectly for dramatic impact) as shock factor ..... I respect your points there and I agree with several of them

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by Billwinkle

I guess you would need to define what the "hobby" is first of all. There are definitely two camps on this matter. The monetary camp and the nostalgia camp.

If you are talking about the value or perceived value of your collection you would be sitting around the fire at the monetary camp. In my humble opinion this camp worries far to much about money to really enjoy the "hobby". I believe that the monetary camp suffers from a form of malaise that can only be cured when you "score or make a monetary killing" That in itself leads me to believe the "hobby" in general is sick but not dead. I can go on to explain my beliefs for several reasons. I will go into that later if anyone would like to debate that

Now over on nostalgia camp the s'mores are being passed around, the fire is crackling and the beers are sliding down just fine. As the population in general ages (yep I'm an old guy) the hobby is thriving. We baby boomers are getting back into the hobby because we all would like to have a piece of our childhood, we enjoy speaking about little known players that we watched a s a kid, or we have had a lifelong interest in whatever sport floats your boat (hockey then baseball for me). We also have some spare pocket change and the wisdom to spend it on items that we like within reason. We buy sell or trade with a different goal in mind. For me it is to complete sets I started as a kid, to rekindle the memories of Tim Horton and the powerful player he was, to remember Bobby Orr as one of the greatest. On the baseball side I enjoy listening to my brother talk about the greats he grew up watching or listening to, Bob Feller Willie Mays, Enos Slaughter, Berra and the Mick, Jackie Robinson as well as all the lesser known players. He sat around the radio and listen to anything baseball for decades, we were poor and didn't have a tv until the late 60's. Baseball for me was all about the the Pirates and the start of the Jays who I now follow intently. Yep I am a Canadian.

So in closing it depends on which camp you are going to this summer or winter. As we all know not all camps are the same!!!!!

that was another well thought out post....all I can say is you being Canadian..is there any truth that tim hortons' could of been called wayne gretskys but he passed on the franchise? I haven't googled it

[Billwinkle]

No truth to that rumour (canadian spelling). Tim Horton started his first doughnut shop before Gretzky was even born I believe. Gretzky did have one or two restaurants called Gretzkys as well. I know Getzky's was in Toronto. Wayne was around when Tim's wife sold the chain of restaurants but they were sold to Tims' business partner. Gretzky does have a sports complex and a parkway named after him in his home town of Brantford.

[begsu1013]

hortons was the inspiration behind "stan mikita's donut shop" in wayne's world.

worth a google.

[ALR-bishop]

Bill--Do people park on parkways in Canada or do they drive on parkways and park on driveways like here

[begsu1013]

why does hawaii have interstates? waffle houses have locks?

"how exactly is a rainbow made? how exactly does the sun set?
how exactly does the posi-trac rear end on a plymouth work!? it just does!"

[RTK]

Originally Posted by begsu1013

hortons was the inspiration behind "stan mikita's donut shop" in wayne's world.

worth a google.

[begsu1013]

yep.

michael myers is from canada and a huge maple leafs fan.
wayne campbell was from chicago and a huge black hawks fan.

art imitating life.

excellent!

[ls7plus]

Re the "hobby is dying" part: ask yourselves this__ if prices started to rapidly fall on some of the holy grails, like the T206 Wagner, M101 and 1914 Baltimore News Ruth rookies, high-grade '52 Topps Mantles, etc, how many of us would line up to catch them if and when they got within our price range? Virtually all of us, I would think, which is the answer to the question itself: demand for the real classics, the material collectors thrive on, is like a large pyramid, with ledges. If the top or even several layers slough off, there's too much below it to keep it all from going, and the net result is that none of it would fall very far. We're here to stay now, boy, just as long as baseball and its history is popular. Anyone who thinks the hobby is dying should have been at the National this past July--BIG, BIG AGAIN, JUST LIKE IT WAS IN '92 in Atlanta (compared to small, like Cleveland, in 2009)! TONS OF YOUTHFUL ENERGY, BURSTING AT THE SEAMS WITH BARELY CONTAINED INTEREST IN PURSUING AND OBTAINING WHAT IT WANTED!

Plus, Leon hosted a helluva Net54 dinner on Friday. I highly recommend it for all for next year!

We're all in this together, like family. No need for name-calling between brothers who simply sometimes disagree.

May we all find joy in our collecting endeavors,

Larry

[pawpawdiv9]

Agree, if the prices are a dropping, I'm there picking up those cards as mentioned (the Balt Ruths, 52 Micks, t206s and more) for 50%off or whatever. Which i doubt ever happen in my lifetime.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by pawpawdiv9

Agree, if the prices are a dropping, I'm there picking up those cards as mentioned (the Balt Ruths, 52 Micks, t206s and more) for 50%off or whatever. Which i doubt ever happen in my lifetime.

the real question is the Etc part...when you guys say babe ruth 1933, mickey mantle 1952. ETC .....what exatly is the ETC...how many rock solid cards are there ? 5? 10?

would a t206 green cobb be one of them?

[egri]

Let me know when the hobby dies; then I'll have plenty of shopping to do .

In all seriousness, in between set builders, type collectors, HOF collectors, tackling The Monster, players-from-my-home-town collectors, etc, there are enough niches to ensure the hobby never dies. There will be price corrections (I think we will see one WRT 1952 Topps Mantles), but there will always be a market for the kind of stuff we collect. ls7plus articulated what I'm getting at better than I am.

[pawpawdiv9]

Originally Posted by 1952boyntoncollector

the real question is the Etc part...when you guys say babe ruth 1933, mickey mantle 1952. ETC .....what exatly is the ETC...how many rock solid cards are there ? 5? 10?

would a t206 green cobb be one of them?

Bro- your reading into this too much, i was just saying if any of 'my' iconic childhood' treasures would become more affordable, i buy them, if they were declining.
Collect what-ever you wanna collect, and sure Cobb is a great player to collect.

Seems like your creating or wanting a list of cards that will retain value or such. If investing for the long haul is your motive, then maybe a IRA account is the path. I just collect, to just collect the players i like. Im not here to start a discussion on what-ifs or what the future holds.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by pawpawdiv9

Bro- your reading into this too much, i was just saying if any of 'my' iconic childhood' treasures would become more affordable, i buy them, if they were declining.
Collect what-ever you wanna collect, and sure Cobb is a great player to collect.

Seems like your creating or wanting a list of cards that will retain value or such. If investing for the long haul is your motive, then maybe a IRA account is the path. I just collect, to just collect the players i like. Im not here to start a discussion on what-ifs or what the future holds.

No, like I said its hobby for me..gonna lose money like any hobby...its just people keeps saying certain cards for sure are rock solid...52 mantle, 1933 ruth...and then ETC... I just making a point that there will be a dispute as to what is rock solid...

[DaveW]

I think that the only way for the hobby to truly die would be for the forgers to get so good that it would be impossible to tell the difference between real vintage cards and new copies.

[ALR-bishop]

If they got so good no one could tell the difference who would know

[DaveW]

Originally Posted by ALR-bishop

If they got so good no one could tell the difference who would know

Prices might tank when 10,000 T206 Wagners get slabbed by PSA

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by 1952boyntoncollector

the real question is the Etc part...when you guys say babe ruth 1933, mickey mantle 1952. ETC .....what exatly is the ETC...how many rock solid cards are there ? 5? 10?

would a t206 green cobb be one of them?

Hundreds, at a minimum, depending on your preference and focus.

Happy collecting,

Larry

[ALR-bishop]

Originally Posted by DaveW

Prices might tank when 10,000 T206 Wagners get slabbed by PSA

Oh, no.....then it might just be a hobby again.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by ls7plus

Hundreds, at a minimum, depending on your preference and focus.

Happy collecting,

Larry

I disagree..... again when saying depending on your focus..the question will be ..what will be the rock solid focus be that will immune to price falls whenever we are in a price fall situation.. ..when people say well at least the main cards are solid 54 topps, 33 ruth ETC.

I do not think they are coming up with 100s of cards in the ETC.......I think its less than 50.....and again if there is difference on opinion on some cards..then maybe those aren't rock solid...like everyone agrees 1933 Ruth? I got a feeling in those 100s of cards you are talking about there will not be the same agreement as there is on a 1933 ruth as there will be on all those 100s of cards you are talking about

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by 1952boyntoncollector

I disagree..... again when saying depending on your focus..the question will be ..what will be the rock solid focus be that will immune to price falls whenever we are in a price fall situation.. ..when people say well at least the main cards are solid 54 topps, 33 ruth ETC.

I do not think they are coming up with 100s of cards in the ETC.......I think its less than 50.....and again if there is difference on opinion on some cards..then maybe those aren't rock solid...like everyone agrees 1933 Ruth? I got a feeling in those 100s of cards you are talking about there will not be the same agreement as there is on a 1933 ruth as there will be on all those 100s of cards you are talking about

I think you need to do some studying in other collectible fields, Jake. Coins would be a good one, since that field became an organized hobby 120 years before cards did, and the development in the baseball card field has virtually duplicated what occurred in coins in every significant respect, including the gradual development of interest in variations and TPG (PCGS is owned by the same entity as PSA, and came into being several years earlier than the latter). Read some of Q. David Bowers' books--he is reknowned and universally respected in the field as both dealer (he started in his teens) and author and/or collaborator in many, many important coin books. The same sentiment of "the sky is falling, the sky is falling," was expressed many times in that hobby's history, and guess what? It is not only alive and well, but forging forward quite strongly, setting new price records for innumerable issues, not just a few. Those that have fallen back in price are and have been that which attract speculators/investors, namely relatively common pieces in ultra-high grade. Truly scarce to rare items for which the demand originates with true collectors have pretty much proceeded upwards in value in an almost linear fashion. Don't believe me? Get a copy of the coin collectors red book, a yearly publication quite comparable to our Standard Catalog, and some from past years or decades, if you can. You will see that many, many of these truly collectible coins not only maintain a value in 4 figures on up, but consistently increase. True, the so-called " trophy items" in coins, which are deemed exceedingly rare/and or significant (and which are comparable to just a few of the examples I gave in cards) have shown considerably higher rates of appreciation and current value, but that's the name of the game now, always has been, and always will be: value = rare and significant in the best condition you can find or afford. Check out the redbook--you will see that virtually every great rarity in coins--and there are more than just a few--is well up into 5-7 figures, dollar-wise. A 1913 Liberty Head Nickel (just five struck on the sly by mint employees) sold for $5 million + not long ago. 1804 silver dollars are valued in excess of $1 million, with 15 known examples through different strikings.

Or, if you like, study what has occurred in the area of collectible automobiles. Carrol Shelby's five Cobra Daytona Coupes, raced at Le Mans, could have been had--all of them, total--for $12,000 in the late '60's. Now, each and every one of them is valued in the seven figure range. And that certainly is not an isolated example. The early '60's Ferrari GT 250 is a $30-$40 million dollar car all day long, every day, at any significant auction. And people don't drive them--they're too valuable. They are simply collectibles like the one's we pursue. Another example? Take the 1967 Chevrolet Corvettes with the 427 cubic inch, 435 horsepower motor. They made a fair amount of them, but from the time it could be purchased in the '80's for $6,000 or so it continued to rise in value until now, the best condition examples command $150 to $200K. It simply became the one to have for many a serious collector. A 1971 LS 6 Corvette (454 motor, 425 horsepower), of which GM made 188, could have been had in the $8,000 range in 1979 (I know--I was offered one that was in tremendous condition then, but somehow turned it down when I could have bought it--darn!!!) is now $150,000. 1971 Hemi convertibles--a terrible car--nose heavy, and prone to shimmying and shaking, as it lacked the rigidity of a coupe, is now a $3 million dollar car. Why? They made just 12 of them, and while all '64-71 Hemi's are quite valuable, the '71 convertible Cuda is King because it is the one to have. 1969-70 Boss 429 Mustangs (something like 1,000 to 2,000 made over those two years) is a quarter of a million dollar car. I rode in a friend of mine's in the '80's, which he bought as an investment somewhere in the $12 to $17K range.

All of the above represent just a very few of the examples I could have cited, if someone was willing to pay me for my time to do so. They are merely illustrative of the many such items out there.

Objects of history, significant in their own field, become valuable BECAUSE PEOPLE LIKE THEM, AND THEY'RE GOING TO CONTINUE TO LIKE THEM! Prices have risen to the stars on some of the most desirable items because collectors just like us, but with a net worth of many, many millions of $$$ have been drawn to the hobby too. As I said earlier, demand for true collector's items is like a pyramid, but with ledges--the higher the value of any given item, the taller the pyramid. While it is most definitely true that as prices on a given item progress to the stratosphere, the rate of appreciation slows down (I have tracked it in coins and cars), the item's value can't fall very far in the absence of some enormous catastrophic event, because if the highest level of demand, i.e. the collectors willing and able to pay some of these Mt. Everest prices, falls away, the next lower level is still there, still wants the item, and is willing to pay the price within their means.

Also, think outside the box. A '33 Ruth's potential in middle grade is limited because there is no real shortage of them. Compare its value in VG/Ex or Ex to the recent sale of a 1921 Holsum Bread Ruth in VG, with only one presently having been graded by all TPG's combined--a cool $83,000. It's significance is that its Ruth (and 1921 was also both Ruth's best year, and the year of the Yankees first pennant, to the discerning collector), and it at least appears to be magnificently rare! Interestingly, the 1914 Baltimore News Ruth, certainly not then a "mainstream" card, came out of the chute, so to speak, at the Copeland auction, circa 1991. The price then? $6,000. I'll take two. The question, if you're concerned with value is: what are the big boys going to want that I can get now before the former even know they are going to want it? They don't buy for investment; they buy the best because they want the best! An E-107 Honus Wagner could have been had in 1995 (if you could find one) in the low 4-figure range. One subsequently sold for $136,000 when the E-107 rage was at its peak.

As I've also said, we're here to stay, just as long as baseball and its history, or, if you are a type collector, the history of baseball cards, remains popular.

Just my 95 bucks worth, and wish you well in your collecting endeavors,

Larry

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by ls7plus

I think you need to do some studying in other collectible fields, Jake. Coins would be a good one, since that field became an organized hobby 120 years before cards did, and the development in the baseball card field has virtually duplicated what occurred in coins in every significant respect, including the gradual development of interest in variations and TPG (PCGS is owned by the same entity as PSA, and came into being several years earlier than the latter). Read some of Q. David Bowers' books--he is reknowned and universally respected in the field as both dealer (he started in his teens) and author and/or collaborator in many, many important coin books. The same sentiment of "the sky is falling, the sky is falling," was expressed many times in that hobby's history, and guess what? It is not only alive and well, but forging forward quite strongly, setting new price records for innumerable issues, not just a few. Those that have fallen back in price are and have been that which attract speculators/investors, namely relatively common pieces in ultra-high grade. Truly scarce to rare items for which the demand originates with true collectors have pretty much proceeded upwards in value in an almost linear fashion. Don't believe me? Get a copy of the coin collectors red book, a yearly publication quite comparable to our Standard Catalog, and some from past years or decades, if you can. You will see that many, many of these truly collectible coins not only maintain a value in 4 figures on up, but consistently increase. True, the so-called " trophy items" in coins, which are deemed exceedingly rare/and or significant (and which are comparable to just a few of the examples I gave in cards) have shown considerably higher rates of appreciation and current value, but that's the name of the game now, always has been, and always will be: value = rare and significant in the best condition you can find or afford. Check out the redbook--you will see that virtually every great rarity in coins--and there are more than just a few--is well up into 5-7 figures, dollar-wise. A 1913 Liberty Head Nickel (just five struck on the sly by mint employees) sold for $5 million + not long ago. 1804 silver dollars are valued in excess of $1 million, with 15 known examples through different strikings.

Or, if you like, study what has occurred in the area of collectible automobiles. Carrol Shelby's five Cobra Daytona Coupes, raced at Le Mans, could have been had--all of them, total--for $12,000 in the late '60's. Now, each and every one of them is valued in the seven figure range. And that certainly is not an isolated example. The early '60's Ferrari GT 250 is a $30-$40 million dollar car all day long, every day, at any significant auction. And people don't drive them--they're too valuable. They are simply collectibles like the one's we pursue. Another example? Take the 1967 Chevrolet Corvettes with the 427 cubic inch, 435 horsepower motor. They made made an adequate number, but from the time it could be purchased in the '80's for $6,000 or so it continued to rise in value until now, the best condition examples command $150 to $200K. A 1971 LS 6 Corvette (454 motor, 425 horsepower), of which GM made 188, could have been had in the $8,000 range in 1979 (I know--I was offered one that was in tremendous condition then, but somehow turned it down when I could have bought it--darn!!!) is now $150,000. 1971 Hemi convertibles--a terrible car--nose heavy, and prone to shimmying and shaking without the rigidity of a coupe, is now a $3 million dollar car. Why? They made just 12 of them, and while all '64-71 Hemi's are quite valuable, the '71 convertible Cuda is King because it is the one to have. 1969-70 Boss 429 Mustangs (something like 1,000 to 2,000 made over those two years) is a quarter of a million dollar car. I rode in a friend of mine's in the '80, which he bought as an investment somewhere in the $12 to $17K range.

Objects of history, significant in their own field, become valuable BECAUSE PEOPLE LIKE THEM, AND THEY'RE GOING TO CONTINUE TO LIKE THEM! Prices have risen on some of the most desirable items because collectors just like us, but with a net worth of many, many millions of $$$ have been drawn to the hobby too. As I said earlier, demand for true collector's items is like a pyramid, but with ledges--the higher the value of any given item, the taller the pyramid. While it is most definitely true that as prices on a given item progress to the stratosphere, the rate of appreciation slows down (I have tracked it in coins and cars), the item's value can't fall very far in the absence of some catastrophic event, because if the highest level of demand, i.e. the collectors willing and able to pay some of these Mt. Everest prices, falls away, the next lower level is still there, still wants the item, and is willing to pay the price within their means.

As I've also said, we're here to stay, just as long as baseball and its history, or, if you are a type collector, the history of baseball cards, remains popular.

Just my 95 bucks worth, and wish you well in your collecting endeavors,

Larry

You can also talk about artwork etc. I just don't think you can compare cars and coins to cardboard...but only time will tell....I do understand the lower level concept.....the dealers will always pay a certain amount. ..many dealers are still collectors, but if the cycle goes on and they have trouble selling a card they now no longer wish to keep that they originally bought at a bargain price then that would test a new lower level ..then that would test another new level....it takes time I understand.

there are hundreds of 52 mantles out there...I not think in any of your examples involved an item where there were 500-1000 of them.... but you make good points....

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by ALR-bishop

If they got so good no one could tell the difference who would know

Examples made by different means always leave tracks--the key is getting to know what those tracks are.

All the best, Al,

Larry